collapse

Author Topic: DIY Frequent Trader  (Read 8555 times)

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #45 on: July 22, 2021, 05:47:12 AM »
Entries vs Exits

As I have said before, I feel we often spend too much time on getting the entry conditions optimised and not enough time on optimising exits.

Over the past year or so I have been experimenting with using dynamic (ie indicator-based) exits to supplement the pip-based exit conditions - for both TP and SL.

Eg ATR-modulated pip settings, basket-based settings, MA crosses and time-based settings. And seeing some improvements.

My latest experiment is to use BB settings as the only exit condition for both TP and SL. Because these bands nicely reflect the dynamic market conditions. This makes for quite a dynamic and variable regime.

In the first two images below you can see how this works. It is obvious that when we have had a large move against a trade it will be some while before the trade is exited, either in profit or in loss.

The entry conditions are multi-indicator based and the strategies do employ re-entries whenever entry conditions are met whilst the initial trade is still open. So those are re-entries; sometimes they occur as if marty; at other times as if scaling in.

Results for the new portfolio using this approach are good to date (but only the second week), and although the closed gain is shown as 17% pm, the more important stat is the -14% return due to the open DD at the moment. Due in large part to the open Buy trades shown on the USDCAD chart and as explained above.

This unpredictability of what the SL or TP of trades will be makes the reward to risk consideration problematical; we can only really rely on back test results and then do some forward testing (as I am doing now on a live account) hoping to include some major market moves like we have had this week - so far we have survived reaching a peak open DD of some 25%. (Trading 11 different pairs with half of them also trading only within one of three time zones - so some 30 charts mostly all 0.01 lot sizing.)
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #46 on: July 24, 2021, 06:22:56 AM »
Messy chart

Using BB for exits provides a bit of flexibility for manual intervention.

With the USDCAD trades for instance where we had a sharp sell-off followed by a very tight range, the optimised setting for the BB exit (coloured in red on the chart) would have resulted in all the open Buy trades being closed last night wiping out all the profits to date. But that would have been due to the unusually tight BB as the price ranged in a very tight band for several days.

Looking at the Daily chart my view is that price will rebound over the next few weeks since price is moving off a multi-year low and is trending up on the longer timescale. That means that I may be able to close these buy trades at a much smaller loss or even a profit if I have the patience.

To do that I have two options.

1. Temporarily change the BB settings as shown in orange as I did last night; or

2. Set BB exit to false and use the trendline exit feature of the Autotrader to allow price to climb and exit at any future drop below the trendline. Trendline as shown in red and I can move that around as required.

Worth a go in my view.
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #47 on: August 02, 2021, 05:13:47 AM »
Using BB and Stoch

The new portfolio is nicely in profit at some 17% pm but dealing with a largish DD at present.

So continuing to refine strategies and favouring having at least two strategies per pair.

In one set am using BB for entries and BB or Stoch for exits; and in the other using Stoch for entries and BB for exits. And some TP levels for both (but no SL since the BB or Stoch provide the exit at loss when market so dictates).

The image shows the comparison BTs for these; first two for period March to May and second two for period April to July.

Which in my view provides some nice complementary action. Important since the trades can be open for quite a while.
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #48 on: August 07, 2021, 08:43:51 AM »
Now for Second Month

I am happy with results so far for the DIY ProTrader portfolio. One month of trading completed on the live $2000 account with a 17% return and PF of 1.6 (need to see improvement here for this measure).

Have done a lot of work finessing the strategies and deciding which ones to take forward. One BT example as per image. Will now be running 20 charts, down from 40. And still some legacy trades to close at or near TP targets. Due to the dynamic exit parameters being used, some trades can be open for a month so swap costs will come into play. BTs for these 20 strategies suggest a monthly return of 50% which would be a nice fairy tale if the markets cooperate.   :)
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #49 on: August 08, 2021, 03:16:28 AM »
Surprise

Just thought I would test this basic strategy on a pair I had not been using - GBPNZD. With great BT results; $200 pm, PF of 14, Max DD of $80 and a win ratio of 95% for both long and short.

Image shows a period in which we can see how a (short) trade may end up in loss eventually, via exit by one of two possible dynamic exit conditions, but not before we have scored some more gains with other trades while the open short trade was in loss. That is the sort of action we can have by not having a hard SL with this type of strategy.
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #50 on: August 13, 2021, 02:37:51 AM »
Promising

We'll complete five weeks of live trading today and we look set to be running at some 20% pm. The hard work from last week to fine tune the portfolio appears to be paying off with over $200 so far this week in profit. BTs suggest we should get closer to 50% pm, but we'll see. 20% is not a bad start.

We still have some legacy trades on USDCAD in loss but I am confident we'll be able to close them out near to BE in a week or so. BTs show that there will be times when trades are open for up to six weeks, closing out either in profit or loss based on the dynamic exit conditions.
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #51 on: August 14, 2021, 03:49:47 AM »
After five weeks trading on a $2K account. Now running with 25 charts, two strategies per pair apart from one.

This is resulting in around 80 open trades at any one time so just under the max 100 open trades (0.01 lots) that MT4 will accept. I have other strategies in the wing should any of the current strategies reach their use-by date.
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #52 on: August 21, 2021, 06:55:35 AM »
After Six Weeks

Still climbing nicely at 22% pm. Have seen some need for some culling and some further refinements and will introduce them progressively as current open trades are closed.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2021, 07:01:09 AM by diyforexskills »
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #53 on: August 28, 2021, 05:08:05 AM »
Just Missed

Just missed out on a seventh week of continuous profits as I closed a couple of legacy trades at loss. Still progressing at around 18% pm but would like to see a lower open DD. Now that the summer months with lower liquidity are almost behind us, let's see what September brings following the Jackson Hole event and the yes/no tapering message.
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #54 on: September 08, 2021, 03:17:45 AM »
Only one small blip so far

Getting closer to the 50% return mark in our ninth week. Made some more adjustments over the weekend introducing an extra entry condition and a second, alternative exit condition. That is in response to how the market moved towards the end of August which were conditions that had not been seen in the original optimisation period.
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2332
Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #55 on: September 12, 2021, 02:45:57 AM »
Another Good Week

The profitable trend continues, as per image for the $2K main account.

Am now also copying this to a second $2K live account since 2 Sep, starting with also copying the open trades that were in loss at the time. A bit like a one-off portfolio marty. Those copied open trades also have their own TP setting, using the features available on the FX Blue Trade Copier, so will close earlier in profit then their corresponding trades on the main account.

I may well then close the corresponding trades on the main account for an overall net zero result. We'll see how that works out in the longer term but it means that I have now doubled my investment on this portfolio having made a bit over $1K so far in 9 weeks across the two accounts.
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com

 

browse forum

* Recent Posts

Re: Some signals on SignalStart i am following by diyforexskills
[Today at 10:08:35 AM]


Re: FXOpen AU Pty Ltd - fxopenaus.com - ASIC Regulated Broker by fxopen78
[Today at 07:23:18 AM]


Re: EUR/USD by fxopen78
[Today at 12:15:32 AM]


Re: EUR/USD by Eliza Abrams
[Yesterday at 02:09:21 PM]


Re: Global Prime by jemook
[Yesterday at 06:05:40 AM]


Re: EUR/USD by fxopen78
[Yesterday at 12:36:41 AM]


Re: Forex Adventures by rsmereka
[September 14, 2021, 11:46:03 PM]


Re: Which broker(s) are you using? by drunkfx
[September 14, 2021, 07:52:07 PM]


Re: BROKER PENDING DISCOVERY - DARWINEX by Darwinex
[September 14, 2021, 03:59:44 PM]


Re: EUR/USD by Eliza Abrams
[September 14, 2021, 01:07:18 PM]