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Author Topic: DIY Frequent Trader  (Read 14548 times)

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #75 on: October 23, 2021, 02:08:44 AM »
Yes will look at these.

The trick is to find a suitable loss in pips at which to start the reverse trades. A 100 pips loss is not a bad starting point but it does mean we need another 100 or so pips of loss and several reverse trades to make the exercise worthwhile. And we need to protect from being whipsawed.

Anyway, I start by optimising for best performance without reverse scale-ins; then look at visual BT to see at which point in loss it may be advisable to start reverse scale-ins. Because ideally we would prefer not to enter a losing position in the first place and/or have the dynamic exit conditions close the losing trade at a reasonable loss. In the previous GBPNZD trades those exit conditions were hit way too late for my liking.

Overall my approach is to have fairly loose conditions - or as they say, give the trades room to breathe.

We have just had a GBPNZD Buy trade triggered with the new strategy, so we will see how that goes.


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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #76 on: October 25, 2021, 11:10:21 AM »
Interesting. Have examined all but two of the pairs (using latest optimisations) and it looks like the sweet spot for entering reversals is closer to 200 pips in loss rather than 100 for most pairs. At least based on the BTs from 1 June 21.

Most pairs would not have needed the reverse trades at less than -200 pips and if they had been done at -100 pips, performance would have been worst - too much whipsawing.

So I will leave the revised GBPNZD running as is - with reversals coded in at -100, -120, -140, -160. But for the others I will add reversals manually as required at around -200 pips depending on how I see the markets at the time. After a few more months we will have a better idea as to how this approach might work best, if at all.


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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #77 on: October 26, 2021, 07:34:21 AM »
Interesting. Have examined all but two of the pairs (using latest optimisations) and it looks like the sweet spot for entering reversals is closer to 200 pips in loss rather than 100 for most pairs. At least based on the BTs from 1 June 21.

Most pairs would not have needed the reverse trades at less than -200 pips and if they had been done at -100 pips, performance would have been worst - too much whipsawing.

So I will leave the revised GBPNZD running as is - with reversals coded in at -100, -120, -140, -160. But for the others I will add reversals manually as required at around -200 pips depending on how I see the markets at the time. After a few more months we will have a better idea as to how this approach might work best, if at all.

Two of the GBPAUD Buy entries have reached 230 pips in loss. While testing this pair over the weekend for best time to enter reverse trades, -250 and -290 pips in loss was optimum over the BT period. So I have now entered these as pending orders; with SL of 100 and TS of 80 pips to be added if triggered.

With the current server EA I am using to copy these trades, pending orders are also copied. I will change the server EA on the weekend so that pending orders will only be copied to follower accounts if and when triggered on the master account.


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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #78 on: October 31, 2021, 01:30:08 AM »
Tough Going

We have now completed 4 months of trading on the Master account, and witnessed our first losing month. At least the last week just managed to scrape out a win.

Reverse scale-ins have now been employed for GBPNZD (auto) and for GBPAUD (manual) with reasonable success. Should also have triggered them for EURNZD but overlooked that; BT suggest I can place a reverse trade as low as -60 pip in loss for the Buys and at -100 for the Sells. So will see what I can retrofit this coming week.

Have also completed a month of trading with some new strategies for five pairs trading on a separate live account recording a nice $220 profit for the month. These strategies will serve as backup for the master account as appropriate.

The accounts have been transferred to a new VPS and the Server copier EA has been replaced with the advanced version so that pending orders will no longer be placed on follower accounts until triggered.

So now let's see what the last two months of 2021 have in store for us.


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Offline rsmereka

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #79 on: October 31, 2021, 02:41:57 PM »
For me, the 28th (-0.5%) and the 29th (-2.9%) contributed to make it a losing month at -1.7%. FXBlue says that the monthly return is 1.8% but I only have 37 days of history.

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #80 on: November 01, 2021, 04:17:42 AM »
Tough Going

We have now completed 4 months of trading on the Master account, and witnessed our first losing month. At least the last week just managed to scrape out a win.

Reverse scale-ins have now been employed for GBPNZD (auto) and for GBPAUD (manual) with reasonable success. Should also have triggered them for EURNZD but overlooked that; BT suggest I can place a reverse trade as low as -60 pip in loss for the Buys and at -100 for the Sells. So will see what I can retrofit this coming week.

Have also completed a month of trading with some new strategies for five pairs trading on a separate live account recording a nice $220 profit for the month. These strategies will serve as backup for the master account as appropriate.

The accounts have been transferred to a new VPS and the Server copier EA has been replaced with the advanced version so that pending orders will no longer be placed on follower accounts until triggered.

So now let's see what the last two months of 2021 have in store for us.

Something went wrong with my FX Blue Copier which I use to copy trades from the Master to my second DIY ProTrader account which I show in my Sig. All open trades were closed when the markets re-opened. So I am now in the red on that one.

This does NOT affect the signal copying to subscribers which uses the Signal Magician Server EA for copying. But we did have some closures on dynamic exit conditions which has enabled me to replace a few more of the strategies with the revised version which incorporates reverse scale-ins for when the market turns against us in a sustained way.


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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #81 on: November 10, 2021, 07:37:39 AM »
Nice Example for Optimisation

I started the DIY ProTrader portfolio in early July 2021 after optimising over April to June.
 
Looking back now for EURCAD we can see how that optimisation was over a ranging/revert to mean period; and whilst that market behaviour continued from July till late September, the strategy was profitable.

But the pair then went into a sustained decline and the dynamic SL was not triggered leading to a large loss. Lately we have been ranging again and the strategy is again profitable. Although we have also re-optimised; and we now have reverse or hedged scale-ins in place should we enter a new sustained trend against the open trade.

This observation is not as clear cut for some of the other pairs we are trading in this portfolio but it is interesting to note that a couple of the other portfolios we have been watching, like Ord Equity and Evergreen, had similar performance changes; performing well in ranging/return to the mean periods, but losing badly when price no longer reverted to the mean.

In the ProTrader portfolio, GBPNZD has been the first to benefit from the new reverse/hedged scale-ins that are now part of the strategy when price broke the lower bound of its range in mid-October. Back testing suggests that this hedged scale-in approach with dynamic SL exits should be more successful than the other obvious approach to guarding against price not reverting to mean - setting hard SLs.


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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #82 on: November 20, 2021, 04:14:21 AM »
Adding DuoTrader

Our DIY ProTrader keeps battling to recover ground now that we have introduced the hedging scale-ins, but it is arduous and followers starting in October still have an open DD loss exceeding closed profits.

In the meantime I have been testing a dual stochastic based strategy on several pairs on live account, and this portfolio is nicely up with only a small open DD.

The comparison between the two since 5 October is shown below.

Given this data I have stopped AUDCAD and EURGBP on the DIY ProTrader master account and will now be copying in EURAUD, EURCAD, EURNZD and GBPCAD dual stochastic strategies onto the DIY ProTrader master account. This will result in some redundancy in terms of pairs which I will remove as appropriate over time.


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Offline rsmereka

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #83 on: November 20, 2021, 03:05:13 PM »
I hope this works out for us,

As a side note, I checked my FXBlue banked return graph from my Live3 account trading DIY ProTrader against the one you posted and they are very similar.

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #84 on: November 25, 2021, 12:01:46 AM »
I hope so too. Have made some further adjustments as well mainly by tightening the BB exit condition.

BTW, your Live 3 myfxbook has not updated since 20 Nov.


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Offline rsmereka

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #85 on: November 25, 2021, 03:09:01 PM »
Thanks for the heads up,

I still can't get used to checking MyFXBook every day for stalled publishing. FXBlue never has this problem.

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #86 on: November 28, 2021, 05:04:57 AM »
Mix and Match

We closed out some nice profits this week but at the expense of accumulating some more open DD. I am gradually changing the strategies to ones with tighter exits but I am still uncomfortable with the size of open DDs. Having said that, I am also slowly recovering from some very large open DDs from legacy trades on the master account following some of the big moves last week. So a win for the long-timers, but not so good for those who have joined in the last month or so who never had these legacy trades in their accounts.

Hence I am now exploring a somewhat different approach - combining a ranging strategy with a trend strategy for each pair. The ranging strategy does both longs and shorts, while the trending ones have separate settings for longs and shorts; so three charts per pair. That way we can make make money under both market conditions. With the current strategies I always found it annoying when we missed out on trading some of the occasional big moves.

BTs for this approach for USDCAD are shown below. For the 6 months BT, trading 0.01 lots, the combined profit from these three strategies is around $2000, which would translate to a doubling of the account size. The future of course will never be as rosy.

All three strategies have both hard SLs at 100 pips (with current strategies open positions can go to -300 pips or so before at least partially recovering) and a dynamic one. And the trending ones have large TPs of course compared to only max 100 pips pips for the ranging one. Still not capturing all of the big trends but much more than with current strategies.


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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #87 on: December 15, 2021, 04:41:18 AM »
Nice to see lots of green pips again

The Nov/Dec changeover saw me take a big hit as trades with the older strategy were closed in large losses. Since then however the portfolio strategies have been revamped as described in previous Post, and only a few legacy EURNZD trades remain in loss having been cut loose to await a better closing opportunity.

In the meantime the new trending strategies have encountered some nice trending markets and are now doing their thing as shown in image. Before this change, we were missing out on such opportunities to gather lots of green pips because the only strategies we had were focused on doing well in ranging markets. Now we have strategies for both types of market conditions. And fixed SLs of 100 pips as well as the a dynamic exit condition which functions as both a secondary SL and TS.


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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #88 on: December 24, 2021, 02:09:12 AM »
Recovery Underway

The portfolio revamp completed on 7 December has been performing well and on track to recover from the losses in October/November. Given the weak market conditions this past week or so (no sustained moves), I have been closing out trades manually a few times each day to capture profits.

Image below shows the performance of the master copying account since 1 December.

My oldest account, begun early July, is showing a monthly return of 4.5% having dipped to almost 0% early December and now recovering.

Here is hoping for a profitable 2022.

Season's greetings to all.


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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #89 on: January 01, 2022, 04:05:23 AM »
Year in Review

I started the DIY ProTrader series in July 2021. After three months we were running at 20% pm and so I started the copying service from a second ProTrader account.

But with the Feds beginning their tapering, market dynamics began to change and the loose dynamic exit strategies on the account began to fail. By early December, all that had been gained on the original account had been lost as shown in image despite some minor adjustment to the strategies in October.

And so I came full circle in my approach by mid-December and re-introduced hard SLs in addition to tighter dynamic exits. I also introduced additional long and short trending strategies for each pair, in addition the ranging strategy, in an attempt to capture much more of the profit on offer when markets do move in a sustained trend. And with markets just dithering in the second half of December, I took the opportunity twice daily to close out on early profits rather than wait for the ranging conditions to oscillate me in and out of open profit/loss.

Thus by year's end the slide into oblivion has been halted and recovery is under way. With the original ProTrader account showing a monthly gain of 4% pm over the six month period from July. I am happy with that but could be made happier if we can regain the 20% pm benchmark in 2022.

I am currently testing some additional pairs, including the Yen pairs, for possible addition to the portfolio.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2022, 04:25:19 AM by diyforexskills »


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