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General => General Trading Discussion => Topic started by: jb on December 03, 2013, 05:25:28 PM

Title: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: jb on December 03, 2013, 05:25:28 PM
I have seen many accounts out there with good profit at the beginning… let’s say one month with 30% account increase, and then you see account starting to decrease to your starting capital. At what point do you start taking precaution of your gain?
Here is one example: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fmonera/robinvol-20-risk-3/482006 (http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fmonera/robinvol-20-risk-3/482006)

Account was in 15% gain at some point to be -20% now… Do you keep it running and risk more or do you stop and rethink your strategy?

We all know that in this market we are going to have loses… the question is what is considered as healthy loss?
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: grgr on December 04, 2013, 11:33:02 AM
This is a good question.

The problem with your example is that it worked for longer than a month and even reached the average return at one time. EA's generally should have Worst Case Scenario based on the historical drawdown and till this point you should keep risking with the EA.

But you're right, RV is currently going down like a rock to the WCS, and most of the systems i've seen so far are simply working for some time and then losing profits and initial capital.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: jb on December 04, 2013, 09:37:24 PM
I think a lot of people including myself are struggling with this topic. Experienced trader might have feel for it but even them should be basing their theory on something… and that something is the “key”.
Traders could be on either side of the theory:
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: grgr on December 04, 2013, 10:01:23 PM
Every strategy must face a drawdown, and it's better to see how a strategy is working with it, rather than looking for systems that works for 2 months and then leave it just because it started to generating losses.

The bigger problem is when you join at the point "after 30% profit". You will start with losses, and you can't keep that 5% profit.

This together makes the profitability for longer term impossible. From this 5% profit you will have to cover losses of other strategies and strategies costs (they're not free).

I've got a feeling, right now, that people who are profitable here for more than a year, are just lucky and nothing else. The situation is a bit different on manual traders, but even there, try to find a long-term trader who will generate you fortune (following his signals).
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: jb on December 05, 2013, 12:09:33 AM
In regards to manual traders... let say you are profitable for 3 months with 30% increase in your account and you start experiencing bad losses you have not encountered before... Let’s say you lose 20% of your account in matter of 3 weeks... would you say is safe to continue with the same strategy?

Sorry if I am boring you ... I am just trying to understand this a bit more and to see how other people are handling this  ;)
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: grgr on December 05, 2013, 10:15:50 AM
I think a good trader would spend more than 3 months on demo trading. He would also stick to one strategy, made by himself, or someone else. After months of testing it he would know how much he can lose. There's no one answer for your question, everything needs time, experience, and studying.

But when you ask about following traders.. I prefer a group of traders, who seems to know what they're doing rather than risking everything with one trader and short live data history. They should also tell you how much you can lose following them.
Obviously it's hard to find such a group.

Obviously the losses are higher if the gains are too. If the strategy is good, and it is not making one trade per month i think it should be a slow process of losses, so you should realize if it stopped working already. At this point i would remind you about return/risk ratio. The higher, the better. For example if you set TP at 5 pips and SL at 50 pips, after 100 good trades, only 10 bad will wipe everything = you will lose your gains 10x faster than winning.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: jeuro on December 05, 2013, 01:37:12 PM
.
That is what back tests are for. We should know the answer before we start trading it.
Ideally, it is our own strategy. Then we know what are the weak point.

There is no way around. It is extremely  hard and a lot of work to find out from back test. Specially
if we use a lot of discretion. 

At the very least, we should spend a few bucks/quids and have someone to code the basic entry and exit
and ck .( with a 1/1 risk reward ratio in pips) if the main component of the strategy pulls out at least  40% of winners over the years.  That immediately will give you an opportunity to see the possible causes when the strategy fails.

With discretion, we can transform a 40% winners to a 60% . but if in back test is below 40%, then forget it. That strategy is no good and should never using even if make money a few weeks.

J
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: goldenmember on December 05, 2013, 09:57:46 PM
This is the problem with technical trading. You can backtest 'strategies' and see whether they work or not over a long time, or you can actually understand what is behind the market. Lots of technical traders blindly follow strategies- they don't know how much money they can make, what the drawdown is, what to do when they have a losing run etc etc. It is no way to trade at all, or to run a business. Imagine running a restaurant and asking the same question (how do I know when my restaurant is failing?) and reexamine your current thinking about forex trading. I have to say, most retail traders that I have spoken to have no idea what to do when they lose money (basically they have no idea how to run any type of business full stop).
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Valery on December 12, 2013, 07:04:12 AM
If more than 2 drawdowns, I believe no further chances must be given to strategy. On average, it cannot operate successfully more than 1 year.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: dylan2510 on December 12, 2013, 02:12:04 PM
Referring to EA or discretionary ?

For discretionary price action strategies would be more flexible to changing market conditions.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: phibase on December 12, 2013, 03:52:53 PM
The Phibase post linked below may be relevant/of interest to this discussion:

http://www.donnaforex.com/forum/index.php?topic=6642.msg295822#msg295822 (http://www.donnaforex.com/forum/index.php?topic=6642.msg295822#msg295822)
 
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: forexnerd on December 17, 2013, 09:16:16 AM
60-90 Days maximum or until 20% capital flushed out.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: hybrid on May 11, 2015, 08:18:26 AM
I would see for some times , If my strategy not works I have to choose some other way of trading . One can not make regular loss to be stuck on any specific strategy . A trader should save his money .
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Forexrider on May 12, 2015, 03:57:30 AM
Testing the strategy for its profitability is a on going process, but one should be careful to implement or test the same along with ideal money and risk management such that even the losses gives the traders with more chances for trading. I would suggest to locate the loopholes of the trading strategy and improve the same for obtain better trading result.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: resistance on June 24, 2015, 09:31:47 AM
If certain strategy is being updated regularly so I am sure if the strategy can be used all the time and if there is strategy which is not working anymore then the strategy is not used regularly by the traders. Traders need to try it on for about a month at least, it will be known well the performance and the result of trading when you're using the strategy. From the performance, traders can decide to keep on using the strategy or not.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: fxman on June 24, 2015, 06:53:34 PM
By observing the result of one profitable month it is not possible to judge a strategy . Imo at least 6 months needed to judge the performance if that strategy runs good at the beginning. If it performs the same way it did in backtest it is fine.  If u understand how that automated strategy is working then later if it starts to lose money, by running backtest on recent months u will also able to detect what is the problem and how much risky it is to run it further. So traders or investors should have good knowledge about the strategy they are using for trading or investing money.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: indicator on June 25, 2015, 05:13:34 AM
If a strategy has worked in start and then become useless then it means that such strategy wasn't a good one to follow. It had only worked because of some market conditions or just by luck. A system for trading does not become useless at all in any market conditions, provided you are following all of its rules.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: resistance on July 02, 2015, 10:48:17 AM
Quote from: indicator link=msg=341935 date=1435205614

If a strategy has worked in start and then become useless then it means that such strategy wasn't a good one to follow. It had only worked because of some market conditions or just by luck. A system for trading does not become useless at all in any market conditions, provided you are following all of its rules.


I think mostly strategies can't work for all the time but we need to update them as we need, so don't ever use same strategy without making evaluation on it because trader should keep on learning about the effectiveness of his strategy in every condition in the market because market's movement is dynamic so you need to fix the bad thing in your strategy and add good thing to make it better strategy but it doesn't change the main rule in the strategy itself.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: hybrid on July 12, 2015, 01:11:19 PM
Some weeks one strategy should continue to see its effect . You can use it  on demo too when you are satisfied than use it on real account. If it is continuously giving loss to u change it according to market and your needs.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: indicator on July 13, 2015, 05:38:59 AM
Quote from: hybrid link=msg=343176 date=1436703079

Some weeks one strategy should continue to see its effect . You can use it  on demo too when you are satisfied than use it on real account. If it is continuously giving loss to u change it according to market and your needs.


Yes why not start trading on demo account with it if you are getting bad results on your real account. Check it in a demo account for 2 months or so and then leave that strategy, start working on some other one.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on July 13, 2015, 08:15:02 AM
I believe a strategy usually could work for very long time if manually, especially we can keep improve it from time to time. Unless it is an EAs.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: indicator on July 28, 2015, 05:33:18 AM
Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=343222 date=1436771702

I believe a strategy usually could work for very long time if manually, especially we can keep improve it from time to time. Unless it is an EAs.


There are some strategies that don't even needs improvement. You can say that a trader can add or exclude some pairs that don't fit in that trading strategy but methodology of a strategy, it its working, will work for ever.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: resistance on July 30, 2015, 08:21:31 AM
Quote from: indicator link=msg=344045 date=1438057998

Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=343222 date=1436771702

I believe a strategy usually could work for very long time if manually, especially we can keep improve it from time to time. Unless it is an EAs.


There are some strategies that don't even needs improvement. You can say that a trader can add or exclude some pairs that don't fit in that trading strategy but methodology of a strategy, it its working, will work for ever.


I had a little bit different view with you. I think strategy will need improvement in timing and setting because the movement of pair won't be same from time to time, example : if you're using EUR/USD as choice for your main pairs then you will know that the movement of this price has been so volatile and more than 200 pips because condition country in Europe is not stable. So, it will need different way to handle it well.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: equityfx on July 30, 2015, 09:51:31 PM
Quote from: resistance link=msg=344182 date=1438240891



I had a little bit different view with you. I think strategy will need improvement in timing and setting because the movement of pair won't be same from time to time, example : if you're using EUR/USD as choice for your main pairs then you will know that the movement of this price has been so volatile and more than 200 pips because condition country in Europe is not stable. So, it will need different way to handle it well.


You are right , many factor that make forex market being dynamically in chaging from time to time , moreover in EUR currency where there are many country that part of eurozone , so one country of that can impact such currency pairs
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: diyforexskills on July 31, 2015, 01:21:50 AM
This sure is the really tricky issue when trading. My general rule for strategies I develop with FX Autotrader Elite is to back test for at least 3 years and only trade ones that have a maximum of 20% DD in that period.

This DD % then becomes my cutoff point going forward.


Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: hybrid on August 02, 2015, 08:59:46 AM
I try one strategy more than 3 months , then decide I should change it or it would not work no longer ..I can not afford loss mostly so I have to see some  other way of trading where I can cut down loss and increase profit possibility
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: vivid on August 03, 2015, 03:01:17 PM
When you account balance goes below 50% trading any method according to its perfection. I mean you had followed it properly with good money management and trading only when you see a good setup according to that strategy but still getting loss most of time.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: indicator on August 05, 2015, 05:50:32 AM
Quote from: vivid link=msg=344427 date=1438610477

When you account balance goes below 50% trading any method according to its perfection. I mean you had followed it properly with good money management and trading only when you see a good setup according to that strategy but still getting loss most of time.


50% account equity loss will break your confidence but if we talk about any strategies performance, we should check it for some months, like 3 or 6 months. If the results are bad, we should change it.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on August 05, 2015, 09:04:03 AM
If you try to understand trying to trade using supply and demand instead of predicting market direction, it will never expired or not workig. ;D
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Rahim Miya on August 06, 2015, 01:21:04 PM
In my live trading account, I use my permanent trading strategy that I made in my practice account. Actually, I tested this trading strategy for three months that’s way, I am very confident about my trading strategy. On the other hand, still I am practicing others strategies in my demo.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: drunkfx on August 06, 2015, 03:50:17 PM
Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=344534 date=1438761843

If you try to understand trying to trade using supply and demand instead of predicting market direction, it will never expired or not workig. ;D


Yeah economic laws will be always in fashion. :D  There are market patterns which are typical for all instruments and based on the supply and demand principle. I base my trading on those principles.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on August 06, 2015, 05:12:05 PM
Quote from: drunkfx link=msg=344608 date=1438872617

Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=344534 date=1438761843

If you try to understand trying to trade using supply and demand instead of predicting market direction, it will never expired or not workig. ;D


Yeah economic laws will be always in fashion. :D  There are market patterns which are typical for all instruments and based on the supply and demand principle. I base my trading on those principles.


What is trading? Trading involve BUY and SELL. When there is BUY and SELL involve, you can't get away from SUPPLY and DEMAND. If someone use their strategy by predicting where the price goes, then it will expired fast because nobody can predict future movement. But SUPPLY and DEMAND do tell us where the buyer and seller are.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: equityfx on August 08, 2015, 10:43:50 PM
Quote from: hybrid link=msg=344360 date=1438502386

I try one strategy more than 3 months , then decide I should change it or it would not work no longer ..I can not afford loss mostly so I have to see some  other way of trading where I can cut down loss and increase profit possibility


That is very good ,  but many trader not patience for wait more than 3 months . i think we  use the strategy that have good testimonial for many traders in getting profit , so we will not tired to test for long , cause there are other traders that has tested that strategy
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: resistance on August 12, 2015, 08:21:54 AM
Quote from: equityfx link=msg=344719 date=1439070230

Quote from: hybrid link=msg=344360 date=1438502386

I try one strategy more than 3 months , then decide I should change it or it would not work no longer ..I can not afford loss mostly so I have to see some  other way of trading where I can cut down loss and increase profit possibility


That is very good ,  but many trader not patience for wait more than 3 months . i think we  use the strategy that have good testimonial for many traders in getting profit , so we will not tired to test for long , cause there are other traders that has tested that strategy


It's good idea to use strategy which has been tested its effectiveness but still, you need to run it personally for about a month to know that the strategy is suitable with you because the effectiveness of strategy will be different when it's done with different traders too. You need to find out proper money management with your current condition of your own capital so the strategy can maximize profit and minimize loss when you used it.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: indicator on August 13, 2015, 05:23:26 AM
No one wants to have big loss, but you have to give a strategy enough time to check its performance. A quarter is enough, if you had followed a strategy with its hundred percent requirement for a quarter, then you can decide about keeping it or leaving it depending on its results.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on August 17, 2015, 12:54:43 AM
Quote from: equityfx link=msg=344719 date=1439070230

Quote from: hybrid link=msg=344360 date=1438502386

I try one strategy more than 3 months , then decide I should change it or it would not work no longer ..I can not afford loss mostly so I have to see some  other way of trading where I can cut down loss and increase profit possibility


That is very good ,  but many trader not patience for wait more than 3 months . i think we  use the strategy that have good testimonial for many traders in getting profit , so we will not tired to test for long , cause there are other traders that has tested that strategy


I think I should agree that most of them doesn't wanted to wait for 3 months to chase for their getting rich quick plan.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Rocky Ward on September 11, 2015, 05:03:46 AM
In Forex narration, scalping is very profitable trading method that brings profit in a little time. Actually most of the regulated trading platform is not willing to provide this facility. But I am very lucky that I am able to scalp in my trading platform MXTrade. This ECN trading platform until the end of time ensures best trading situation by supplying only one pip trading spread. So it is possible to me to make profit by scalping in this platform.   
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: fxman on September 11, 2015, 04:55:36 PM
Most of good strategies are trend following strategies.  But it is not easy to make profit in manual trading by following only a strategy without understanding market context. It may take much time to read the market context correctly most of time. In ranging market trend following strategy will not work. Like that strategy may not work in certain market phase.
Again losing string or drawdown period can come. That not mean u need to change ur strategy. 

If anyone can understand his/her strategy well then it will be easier to decide- whether it is normal or need to modify or strategy working no more during losing string period.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on September 14, 2015, 03:42:00 AM
Quote from: fxman link=msg=346604 date=1441986936

Most of good strategies are trend following strategies.  But it is not easy to make profit in manual trading by following only a strategy without understanding market context. It may take much time to read the market context correctly most of time. In ranging market trend following strategy will not work. Like that strategy may not work in certain market phase.
Again losing string or drawdown period can come. That not mean u need to change ur strategy. 

If anyone can understand his/her strategy well then it will be easier to decide- whether it is normal or need to modify or strategy working no more during losing string period.


Yeah, I think you get some point on manual trading but you forget the most important occurrence on manual trading, Emotional Trading. ;D 
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Rocky Ward on September 15, 2015, 05:10:25 AM
We the traders usually select our trading strategy in order to our trading experience. in my trading career, I have to depend scalping due to having small balance. and, for using this trading policy in a proper way , I have selected MxTrade trading broker which always ensures best trading surroundings for scalping by providing only one pip trading spread.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: drunkfx on September 15, 2015, 08:53:48 AM
I think its not hard to notice that you profit became consistently losing. 2-3 deposit blowouts are enough I think.. ;D
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: joray on September 15, 2015, 09:05:15 AM
How long is a piece of string.....? You need to run your strategy in different market conditions.  Politics and natural events are a killer to any strategy no matter how good
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: fxman on September 15, 2015, 03:00:27 PM
Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=346648 date=1442198520

Yeah, I think you get some point on manual trading but you forget the most important occurrence on manual trading, Emotional Trading. ;D


If emotional trading is the problem then one can't blame the strategy he/she is following. Lose management is one of the most important thing in trading  and without being good in lose management by controlling emotion I don't think it is possible to go ahead in this business.   
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Rocky Ward on September 24, 2015, 08:32:35 AM
Basically, this is the market place; there is not a soul who be able to calculate the real Faction with undoubtedly. So, for keeping survive we have to depend on our trading strategy among, according to our trading experience. Actually, I am very much dependable on my price action strategy that is the foremost source for my earning profit. For, applying this trading policy, I have fixed MxTrade as my trading stand where I get for all time accurate candlesticks that help me to predict the accurate movement of this market. By using this proper candlestick, here, I can use my another trading policy to keep survive in this volatile stage.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on September 25, 2015, 05:59:52 AM
Quote from: fxman link=msg=346735 date=1442325627

Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=346648 date=1442198520

Yeah, I think you get some point on manual trading but you forget the most important occurrence on manual trading, Emotional Trading. ;D


If emotional trading is the problem then one can't blame the strategy he/she is following. Lose management is one of the most important thing in trading  and without being good in lose management by controlling emotion I don't think it is possible to go ahead in this business.   


Absolutely agree. It is a self personality problem instead of strategy/system or whatsoever. But honestly, I believe emotion is the hardest part in trading and I took a lot of time to practice myself. Not sure about others.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: hybrid on September 25, 2015, 12:07:47 PM
It is up to your experience that you decide how long you should try any strategy . If you loose again and again with any strategy you can change it suddenly .There are not hard and fast rules. In forex you have freedom to work where you feel easy . I do not wait for a long time to change a strategy . I have to see my security and benefits.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on September 28, 2015, 06:15:03 AM
Quote from: hybrid link=msg=347194 date=1443179267

It is up to your experience that you decide how long you should try any strategy . If you loose again and again with any strategy you can change it suddenly .There are not hard and fast rules. In forex you have freedom to work where you feel easy . I do not wait for a long time to change a strategy . I have to see my security and benefits.


Yes, I believe the most important is you feel comfortable with any of the strategies instead by using some hard rules.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: resistance on September 30, 2015, 04:58:45 AM
Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=347297 date=1443417303

Quote from: hybrid link=msg=347194 date=1443179267

It is up to your experience that you decide how long you should try any strategy . If you loose again and again with any strategy you can change it suddenly .There are not hard and fast rules. In forex you have freedom to work where you feel easy . I do not wait for a long time to change a strategy . I have to see my security and benefits.


Yes, I believe the most important is you feel comfortable with any of the strategies instead by using some hard rules.


It's true. Trader must feel comfortable to use the strategy and also it must be profitable for him too because no one who wants to use strategy which is not profitable. Usually, traders should update the strategy and they didn't use without update until it doesn't work anymore. But if there is person who wants to use strategy without update it, so he is not good trader who doesn't want to learn anymore.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on September 30, 2015, 07:24:15 AM
Quote from: resistance link=msg=347396 date=1443585525

Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=347297 date=1443417303

Quote from: hybrid link=msg=347194 date=1443179267

It is up to your experience that you decide how long you should try any strategy . If you loose again and again with any strategy you can change it suddenly .There are not hard and fast rules. In forex you have freedom to work where you feel easy . I do not wait for a long time to change a strategy . I have to see my security and benefits.


Yes, I believe the most important is you feel comfortable with any of the strategies instead by using some hard rules.


It's true. Trader must feel comfortable to use the strategy and also it must be profitable for him too because no one who wants to use strategy which is not profitable. Usually, traders should update the strategy and they didn't use without update until it doesn't work anymore. But if there is person who wants to use strategy without update it, so he is not good trader who doesn't want to learn anymore.


Yeah, because I tried myself. I did share my experience before when I am still learning. It is much more difficult to learn somebody strategies rather than to create yourself one. I believe this is because trader will feel more comfortable and confidence with their own strategy.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: resistance on October 02, 2015, 11:09:56 AM
Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=347403 date=1443594255

Quote from: resistance link=msg=347396 date=1443585525

Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=347297 date=1443417303

Quote from: hybrid link=msg=347194 date=1443179267

It is up to your experience that you decide how long you should try any strategy . If you loose again and again with any strategy you can change it suddenly .There are not hard and fast rules. In forex you have freedom to work where you feel easy . I do not wait for a long time to change a strategy . I have to see my security and benefits.


Yes, I believe the most important is you feel comfortable with any of the strategies instead by using some hard rules.


It's true. Trader must feel comfortable to use the strategy and also it must be profitable for him too because no one who wants to use strategy which is not profitable. Usually, traders should update the strategy and they didn't use without update until it doesn't work anymore. But if there is person who wants to use strategy without update it, so he is not good trader who doesn't want to learn anymore.


Yeah, because I tried myself. I did share my experience before when I am still learning. It is much more difficult to learn somebody strategies rather than to create yourself one. I believe this is because trader will feel more comfortable and confidence with their own strategy.


Yes, it is harder to learn other trader strategy especially if there is no clear explanation how to use it in the right timing because same strategy will be different its effectiveness when it is used in different session. It's easier to learn our own strategy but it will take too much time if you made your own strategy all things from the beginning. So, it's better using other strategy with few adjustment as we need. That's the usage to trade with demo account first.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: indicator on October 05, 2015, 05:12:05 AM
It depends on how much your trading account can bear. If you like to lose 50% of your trading capital then you can keep trading with that strategy until you touch this percentage. You can set it to a higher percentage as well to save yourself from more drawdowns.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: drunkfx on October 05, 2015, 07:46:31 AM
Quote from: indicator link=msg=347609 date=1444018325

It depends on how much your trading account can bear. If you like to lose 50% of your trading capital then you can keep trading with that strategy until you touch this percentage. You can set it to a higher percentage as well to save yourself from more drawdowns.


Yeah, agree, 50% is enough to realize your strategy is not working anymore and you have to switch to something else. But there are strategies that won't go out of date with time, I'm talking about fundamental analysis, if you have good analytical skills you'll be always on top.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Profitable Trading on November 16, 2015, 01:27:51 PM
When strategy makes a profit 1-2 month, it cannot be considered profitable. Strategy must show 6+ month profitability to trust and have confidence in it. Even beginner traders can make 30-40% first month, but then they give back all and more.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: equityfx on November 17, 2015, 06:24:03 AM
Quote from: Profitable Trading link=msg=349469 date=1447680471

When strategy makes a profit 1-2 month, it cannot be considered profitable. Strategy must show 6+ month profitability to trust and have confidence in it. Even beginner traders can make 30-40% first month, but then they give back all and more.
You need to test the strategy in two years, so they can know the performance. This is very important because the quality can be tested. Furthermore, you can implement in good trades.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: bruce_knee on November 17, 2015, 02:04:46 PM
It really depends on the strategy- some strategies are long-lived, others change as market conditions change so you can't really always predict in advance. For example if your strategy is linked to technical analysis and you use indicators, you need to bear in mind the past doesn't always match with what's going to happen and you need to keep an eye on current fundamentals
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Forex Verified on November 17, 2015, 04:10:32 PM
Quote from: bruce_knee link=msg=349522 date=1447769086

It really depends on the strategy- some strategies are long-lived, others change as market conditions change so you can't really always predict in advance. For example if your strategy is linked to technical analysis and you use indicators, you need to bear in mind the past doesn't always match with what's going to happen and you need to keep an eye on current fundamentals


Well said. Big news could destroy technical analysis in a minute.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Priceless on November 18, 2015, 02:19:40 PM
Quote from: Forex Verified link=msg=349525 date=1447776632

Well said. Big news could destroy technical analysis in a minute.

And this is why the best thing is to avoid the trading during news.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: bruce_knee on November 18, 2015, 07:31:58 PM
Quote from: Forex Verified link=msg=349525 date=1447776632

Quote from: bruce_knee link=msg=349522 date=1447769086

It really depends on the strategy- some strategies are long-lived, others change as market conditions change so you can't really always predict in advance. For example if your strategy is linked to technical analysis and you use indicators, you need to bear in mind the past doesn't always match with what's going to happen and you need to keep an eye on current fundamentals


Well said. Big news could destroy technical analysis in a minute.


Thanks, absolutely that's why I avoid opening a trade before important news releases
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: indicator on January 16, 2016, 07:34:07 AM
It is obvious that you should stop using any strategy if you are constantly losing money from using it. There is no point in testing it for too long to even lose your entire trading account.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: equityfx on February 09, 2016, 01:21:53 AM
I does not like to keep my trading strategy running long time as I want to get the immediate result. Keep in mind that I am a scalper, I just get the immediate result and I am enjoying my trading being a scalper and earning reasonable amount.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: bruce_knee on February 09, 2016, 01:44:26 PM
If my strategy fails me 5-6 times in a row I start analysing it. I'm a scalper so I can't always expect positive results from my strat as with short time frames prices are more volatile. I also follow the economic news to be in check with what's driving market sentiment
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: diamond on March 13, 2016, 09:57:32 AM
Its simple if you account equity comes to 50% loss, then you should stop trading using that strategy.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: diyforexskills on March 13, 2016, 10:18:49 AM
Quote from: diamond date=1457863052 link=msg=353295

Its simple if you account equity comes to 50% loss, then you should stop trading using that strategy.


Or just switch the strategy to a demo account (probably better to do that at 20% DD), keep trading it on demo till the market reverts to being favorable for that strategy again, as indicated by an uptrend in the strategy's equity curve, and then start trading that strategy on live again. And so on... And use the "on" time to develop your next strategy so that over time you will have a strategy to suit each market condition period.

The market is dynamic so we must be fleet-footed and be equipped to mirror that dynamism.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on March 14, 2016, 05:40:57 AM
Quote from: diamond link=msg=353295 date=1457863052

Its simple if you account equity comes to 50% loss, then you should stop trading using that strategy.


50% I thinks is a bit much to put on this figures on risk of investment. This exposure could anytime broke you easily.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Forex Verified on March 14, 2016, 03:35:00 PM
You might try to lower risk if the strategy keeps failing, or move to demo for a while.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Steveperry on March 14, 2016, 04:58:54 PM
The main flaw is only relying on the results of a 'backtesting' , there is much more to it and simulation is also key to understand how the strategy will perform in different market conditions
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: brave on March 19, 2016, 01:12:29 PM
Forex is risky and tough business and we should not wait long time if trade goes against. We should accept the small loss and should close our trading, after getting rest we should re-entered in the market with best planning in order to get the fruitful result.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: resistance on March 24, 2016, 01:55:04 PM
Backtesting in demo account maybe any trader they can good result and small drawdown, but sometime in real account any trader they can work using strategy in dmeo account because different psychology,
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Forex Verified on March 24, 2016, 02:20:13 PM
Quote from: resistance link=msg=353568 date=1458827704

Backtesting in demo account maybe any trader they can good result and small drawdown, but sometime in real account any trader they can work using strategy in dmeo account because different psychology,


That is why after backtesting you go to forward testing with minimal risk.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: indicator on May 16, 2016, 07:19:06 AM
When you get too much of draw down and your account capital comes to a stage where you start worrying then you should stop trading on that strategy.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: iMusingKiMi on May 17, 2016, 06:43:48 AM
Why a lot of people only take backtest as reference instead of true results? Many people thought that backtest is useful, but actually backtest varies at least 20% when you trade live.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: diyforexskills on May 17, 2016, 08:21:32 AM
Quote from: indicator date=1463379546 link=msg=354799

When you get too much of draw down and your account capital comes to a stage where you start worrying then you should stop trading on that strategy.


Yes, but then you also need to know when it is safe to re-enter with the strategy.

My suggestion is to adopt a Dual System of trading, which I describe on p8 of the User Guide for FX Autotrader Elite

http://www.fxautotraderelite.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/User-Guide-for-FX-Autotrader-Elite-Trading-Tips.doc-V-03-01.37.pdf
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Forex Verified on May 17, 2016, 10:36:56 AM
Quote from: iMusingKiMi link=msg=354832 date=1463463828

Why a lot of people only take backtest as reference instead of true results? Many people thought that backtest is useful, but actually backtest varies at least 20% when you trade live.


It's true, backtest can give you an idea or a direction of a certain strategy but the truth is - forward trading is always different (and market conditions constantly change).
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Aaronpp on August 19, 2019, 09:06:38 PM
The moment your strategy fails more than five times in a row is because you have to change it, maybe not drastically just analyze the bugs you’ve had and subtly change your strategy but you can do this any more if you’ve performed your previous analysis perfectly because the strategy is probably good but Your analysis fails and is what causes you losses, You must be very careful with that.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: FxTS on August 20, 2019, 09:08:23 AM
Actually, it depends on particular strategy. In general, trader should pay attention for the situation when the strategy starts to perform worse than it performed during backtesting and demo testing. There are not strict rules like "five losing trades in a row" because strategy could make even more losing trades in a row and still be profitable due to the risk-reward ratio. For example, most of the mid-term strategies has poor win rate, but they are profitable because their profit potential is extremely high. Some of them offer 1:15 or even 1:20 risk-reward, so you can have even net losing trades in a row and still be profitable.
To be able to detect actual underperformance trader needs to have a detailed report on the performance of the strategy on historical data to compare with. This will help trader to understand that something goes wrong and make changes that are necessary to make the strategy profitable again.
Markets incur changes for all the time, so the trader has to be flexible enough to be able to stay profitable under any trading conditions. If the trader would be open minded, he would easily find the solution on the way to use new trading opportuntities.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: diyforexskills on August 21, 2019, 02:26:48 AM
Actually, it depends on particular strategy. In general, trader should pay attention for the situation when the strategy starts to perform worse than it performed during backtesting and demo testing. There are not strict rules like "five losing trades in a row" .........

Yes that comparison is worth analysing. Optimisation and BT on past data has its drawbacks but we have little choice unless we can predict the future.

This type of analysis, actual or real vs backtest, is what NexusDash was developed for. See eg https://donnaforex.com/index.php?topic=21298.msg389358#new  and example in image below.
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Odysseia Capital on August 22, 2019, 11:51:20 AM

Yes that comparison is worth analysing. Optimisation and BT on past data has its drawbacks but we have little choice unless we can predict the future.

This type of analysis, actual or real vs backtest, is what NexusDash was developed for. See eg https://donnaforex.com/index.php?topic=21298.msg389358#new  and example in image below.

Thanks for stepping in diyforexskills.

Nexus Dash has been developed by Odysseia Capital in partnership with diyforexskills as in-house tool to help us in our portfolio management decision process.

The aim is exactly to try to address the question if the decision to deploy a strategy to the real world is still deemed as valid, when part of the deployment decision was based in key performance indicators provided by the Backtest. With that objective in mind, certain limits of the Backtest are extracted and compared against the corresponding KPIs of real money account.

Then it's at the discretion of the user to decide how to use the corresponding results and consider a strategy should continue to run the strategy, change its weight in the portfolio, suspend it or cancel it all together. Nexus Dash doesn't provide a decision on that matter but makes the information transparent to the user to support him/her in the portfolio management decisions.

Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Odysseia Capital on August 26, 2019, 04:49:52 PM
Connected with the pre-deployment phase (not exactly the post-deployment phase as discussed in this thread), we are interested to learn about what elements influence the algo-traders using Expert Advisors to build up the necessary confidence level before commiting real money capital to automated strategies.

We hope not to be violating any policy from the forum by inviting the community to participate in a poll.

Participation is anonymous (we don't collect IPs) and we intend to share here the overall aggregated results. If there was already a previous poll covering exactly the same questions, we would be grateful if we can to be directed to it.

Participation takes only 2 minutes (1 or 2 questions) and is highly appreciated.

The poll can be accessed here:

https://surveyhero.com/c/4ff4ec11
 (https://surveyhero.com/c/4ff4ec11)
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: Umar on October 09, 2019, 11:42:44 AM
I think that you should wait for a very short period of time until you realize that you need to do something with your trading strategy. Several lose deals are more than enough for me to be alerted that I need to change something
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: drunkfx on October 10, 2019, 02:22:27 PM
I think that you should wait for a very short period of time until you realize that you need to do something with your trading strategy. Several lose deals are more than enough for me to be alerted that I need to change something

What risk per trade do you allow (as % of equity) and what is max possible drawdown after you stop trading?
Title: Re: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore
Post by: diyforexskills on October 11, 2019, 02:05:59 AM
In trading we deal with facts/hard numbers and with psychology or sentiment.

So deciding on a level of DD before stopping a strategy is one way. For me a visual representation of what is happening has more weight on my decision-making.

I use an on-screen performance graph to shake me into action. (using the EA Controller just as a monitoring tool.)

So when performance dips below and stays below its 20 "period" SMA (see first image), I pull the plug on my live account (which I did some time ago) but leave the same strategy running on my demo account. Ready to jump back in on live if the graph on my demo account shows it to be save (still waiting after several months so a lot of losses avoided).

The second image shows a strategy that I am happy to be running on my live account now. (The MA, blue line, is a 20 "period" SMMA of closed profit).

So yes, it is the same info as say a %DD, but the visual impact for me is what makes me take action.