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1
Well the SFE EAs do trade independently from each other and it is true that their trades donít overlap. And if we use Fixed Lot sizes for each EA I really donít see why the total profit wonít be X + Y if you run them on the same account for the same given period. ???

Perhaps someone can run a backtest using 2 SFE EAs to verify my point...? ::)
2
Hmm...I am pretty sure if Joel was able to develop these great EAs using his knowledge in statistics and probability, he wonít make a simple calculation error like that...

Letís say we have 2 profitable systems, A and B.

And when we do a backtest, system A makes X units in a given year, and system B makes Y units in the same year. For simplicity we will assume the backtests were done using Fixed Lots (which is how I run my account as well).

Then, if we do another backtest running systems A and B together on the same account for the same year, wouldnít the total profit still be X + Y units? But because their DD will happen at different times, the maximal DD will be less than the sum of system A and Bís DDs combined.

I think thatís the simplest way I can put it, but I still believe Joel is correct. ;)

PS. I think what you referred to was the maximal gain over this period for systems A and B will be less than the sum of maximal gain of these systems combined, which is true. But in terms of the total profit at the end of the period, it really is just the profits of the two systems added together. :)
Your example is not in the statistical sense. In the statistical sense the trades of X and Y may be triggered by the same event, and close at almost the same time with X gaining and Y losing. Therefore, after merge Avergae Profit (X+Y) is in general less than Average Profit (X) + Average Profit (Y). Your example assumes that the trades of X and Y never overlap. This is only true in independent backtests with X and Y.
3
Hmm...I am pretty sure if Joel was able to develop these great EAs using his knowledge in statistics and probability, he wonít make a simple calculation error like that...

Letís say we have 2 profitable systems, A and B.

And when we do a backtest, system A makes X units in a given year, and system B makes Y units in the same year. For simplicity we will assume the backtests were done using Fixed Lots (which is how I run my account as well).

Then, if we do another backtest running systems A and B together on the same account for the same year, wouldnít the total profit still be X + Y units? But because their DD will happen at different times, the maximal DD will be less than the sum of system A and Bís DDs combined.

I think thatís the simplest way I can put it, but I still believe Joel is correct. ;)

PS. I think what you referred to was the maximal gain over this period for systems A and B will be less than the sum of maximal gain of these systems combined, which is true. But in terms of the total profit at the end of the period, it really is just the profits of the two systems added together. :)
4
Managed Accounts & Signal Services / Re: Frero system
« Last post by Wassel2019 on Yesterday at 05:01:51 PM »
Dear All,
Thank you for your contribution.
I read carefully your comments and I am pleased to recall that the system started with 77k, thereafter 2.3M were withdrawn and the current balance is 840k or so... So does it worth a try? I know several smart followers who made good money with Frero system and are extremely happy - some of them told me they follow the system with 50% of the lot size opening, so they don't risk more than 25% of their account...
For those who find the subscription fees too high, they can join our MAM at FX Choice (also suitable for US citizens) or at Tickmill Seychelles FSA.
There are 20% performance fees (20% of the profit) based on high water mark : if the account drops in value, we don't get a percentage of any new profits until all prior losses are made up and a new higher total amount of money is reached in the account.
Commission cycle 4 weeks.
Possibility of withdrawal anytime for FXChoice MAM and by the begining of each month for Tickmill MAM.
Minimum deposit is 5000$
lot size opening : 0.03 lot size per 5000$ capital (instead of 0.01 lot size per single trade for each 1000$ capital).
FXChoice MAM link is https://my.myfxchoice.com/registrationMam/?ib=303177&account=690653
For Tickmill MAM : kindly ask broker@tickmill.com for the opening of an MT4 sub account tied to our MAM reference S73-USD, once you get your MAM sub account details, please liaise with me at frerosystem at gmail dot com to complete the LPOA (profit share agreement).
5
Joelís merging SFE experts guide contains this important claim: "This correlation means that probably the total DD at any moment can be higher than the individual DD, although donít mean that the DD will be the sum of DD, this would be in case of 100% correlation, but is not the case, of course. Then, is profitable merge them, because the total DD is never the sum of the individual DD, while the total profit is always the sum of individual profits, this means that the ratio  Profit / DD when we use more than one, is better than using only one, and if we try to fix the total DD at a certain value, means that we will do more profit using more than one."

Unfortunately, his claim is wrong.  If the correlation of the 2 EAs is not 100%, the max DD of the merged EAs is not  the sum of the DDs of the individual EAs. This is correct. But, the max. profit of the merged EAs is also not the sum of the profits of the indivisdual EAs, because sometimes one EA is making profit, while the other is making lost. Itīs the same statistical behavior as in the consideration of DD.
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It would be much profitable on account with 10 USD deposit.Lol
I wonder how can you make scaling test with 50 bucks on account. Its looks like joke.
8
Weekly Result - 9th Sep 2019 to 13rd Sep 2019

Total: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?#week)
-$759.16 (with $14318.19 floating profit)

SFE Price Action: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=400051-450601#week)
+$3569.41

SFE Attractor: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=510051-510605#week)
+$6127.99

SFE Night Scalper: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=710051-710302#week)
+$387.35

SFE EURUSD: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=800051-860602#week)
-$10840.94

Wow...what a week it was! :o The ECB certainly didn't disappoint and gave us a lot of volatility, but the U-turn on EURUSD was certainly very nasty and my account was down about $50K very quickly! Fortunately the SFE EAs were able to catch the reversal and recovered all the losses. Now I have a basket of nice floating profit going into next week. :)

SFE PA and SFE Attractor ended the week with nice positive gains, and it is SFE EU that had a large loss. I think again it demonstrates the importance of trading multiple pairs for risk diversification to help minimise the drawdown. I am sure SFE EU will recover soon (maybe as soon as next week with the coming FOMC), but it would certainly be better to have less DD! ;)

Following the big (although temporary) drawdown on ECB day, I have decided that I will change my lot sizes to the following once the current basket closes:

SFE PA - 0.6 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $1000)
SFE ATR - 0.6 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $1000)
SFE EU - 1.0 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $600)
SFE NS - 0.9 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$31500 at 0.01 Lot per $350)

Total amount risked = US$60K + US$60K + US$60K + US$31.5K = US$211.5K

So using Joelís merging SFE experts guide (see attached), my exposure would be roughly US$211.5K / 2.1 = US$100.71K = AU$146.8K (with AU exchange rate of 0.686)

Which means if my account has AU$150K and run the above lot sizes, I will be trading at the recommended risk. :D

Even if my account doesnít have $150K, the new risk will still be much more acceptable than 4-5x recommended risk. For example, if my account has $100K then I would be running at 1.5x recommended risk with the new lot sizes.

If the current trades don't all close before FOMC next week, then I plan to change the lot sizes just 10 minutes before FOMC takes place, so if another nasty zigzag happens this time we won't be hit as much.

For current subscribers, please leave the risk multiplier at 0.20 for now. Once I have reduced the risk on my account I will post an update here, and once that happens it would then be safe for you to use a risk multiplier higher than 0.20.

Have a nice weekend! :)
9
General Trading Discussion / Re: EUR/USD
« Last post by Eliza Abrams on September 13, 2019, 02:56:33 PM »
EUR/USD found some resistance at 1.1110 but I think next week the pair will likely continue moving north.
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