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Author Topic: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here  (Read 19757 times)

Online donnaforex

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #30 on: October 09, 2015, 08:25:43 PM »
Quote from: pakeha link=msg=347850 date=1444382227

Hi

Like many of you I have been trying translate Bill's knowledge and experience into an approach that works for me.  A recent ah-ha for me has been trading off the 5 min 0 ATR (thanks Donna), but with the TL providing context (some of the more volatile pairs will reverse on the TL rather than the 0 ATR).  This precision with the trade entry really helps reach the 20 pip target. 

To better describe how I break down the trading day into cycles I have attached the EURUSD chart for Oct 8 (yesterday).  While it has quite a bit of information on it, there are 6 trades made - five 0 ATR reversals and a daily open reversal - for 115 pips.  I find this to be a low risk approach to implementing Bill's system. 

Comments welcome

Trevor H




This is a very nice chart, Trevor, some great trades there showing examples of several different strategies which are discussed in the room beyond just the basic FX1. I hope you had a lot of fun trading these!

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Offline pakeha

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #31 on: October 09, 2015, 11:33:53 PM »
Hi

You guys have inspired me to do one more chart review  :)   I trade Pacific time so I usually start my analysis during the Frankfurt session (11 pm my time) and start trading after the London open.  Some days I will trade right through the night and into the NY session, others (especially Fridays when there is light news) I will stop at that dull period in the London session.  Today, Oct 9th I had decided to only trade for 3-4 hours.  

When I analysed the charts during Frankfurt I had noticed the downtrend in the GBP pairs on all 3 timeframes and decided to focus on them.  I only trade 1 or possibly 2 pairs at the same time.  Today I decided to focus on the GBPNZD.  Its a pair that hasn't been too kind to me in the past due to its volatility, however I have been trying an approach where I would take the entry signal off the +1 or -1 ATR rather than the 0 ATR.  This is something I notice that Bill does, and as we well know it is his favourite pair.  

The chart attached shows 8 trades, 7 winners for a total of 105 pips.  I only traded #1 (DO reversal - I love these), #3 (+1 ATR reversal) and #4 (+1 ATR reversal) for 60 pips.  That said, trades #2, #6 and #7 all worked as 0 ATR reversals.  I have assumed a spread of 5 pips in these trades (ie price needs to move 25 pips to gain 20 pips profit). Trade #5 would hit the stop loss of 30 pips, or 35 pips with spread. Trade #7 is tight so a 20 pip gain is really a best case scenario, but worse case would be breakeven.  

Of particular note is the power of the trade line that started at the high in the Frankfurt session and the early highs in the London session (points 1 and 3) - see how the following counter up cycle and the following down cycle that occurred hours later still respected it.  

Back to the GBPNZD.  From this analysis both a 0 ATR and +1 ATR worked. However if we used 0 ATR only then trades #3 and #4 would quickly get you into a 25+ pip drawdown and potentially a SL.  So the trick now is to figure out a trade entry approach that allows for 0 ATR reversal or a +1/-1 ATR reversal.  Any ideas are welcome.  

Hope this helps.  Have a great weekend

Trevor H


Offline SuperM

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #32 on: October 10, 2015, 06:28:05 AM »
Wow! Trevor, i really like the way you explain in simple way. Looking forward for more examples. I will post also mine next week. Thanks!

Offline gatch

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #33 on: October 10, 2015, 11:53:54 AM »
Quote from: donnaforex link=msg=347871 date=1444418592


Gatch,

Your charts show classic and very profitable setups! You need to re-evaluate where you are putting your stoploss if these trades stopped you out in the red circles. First off, in the room we don't generally put a stop into the market but trade using a (well-defined) mental stoploss. Having a stop at or near the tradeline drawn in your picture is 99% of the time going to result in a bad experience - price reacts from these tradelines so it makes sense that we don't want to be putting our stop there. Please come along to one of the live webinar sessions as i think you'd pick up a lot of helpful info (and they are free) that will take you beyond the basics and into profitability.

Let me know if i can do anything further to help.


Thank for your answer

I'm in webinar between 2 complete weeks now. I'm french and english speaking it's difficult to understand correctly to me, but good for me to re-learn speaking language.
I'm the guy who have the same birthday day than Bill ^^

I have not understand how to manage when trade not in good direction, same as my exemple.
Difficult to me don't use stop loss.

Offline pakeha

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #34 on: October 12, 2015, 12:11:17 AM »

A follow-on from my Friday chart.  I did a some back testing for the month of September to understand the GBPNZD a bit better. 

The conclusion I drew was that it is better to trade off the 0 ATR but allow enough of a stop loss to include the - 1 or +1 ATR plus spread etc.  Therefore a stop loss of 45-50 pips is not unreasonable.  Using a stop loss in the 20-30 pip range will definitely reduce the success rate. In addition of course, is the opportunity to enter a second trade at the -1/+1 ATR to either breakeven or generate a winning trade.   

Hope this helps

Trevor


Online donnaforex

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2015, 11:42:36 AM »
Very good observation, Trevor. Placing stops at the ATR levels is the biggest mistake i see people making - it normally gets you out at the worst possible points!

New FX1 traders.. i created this video about the basic FX1 setups / core strategy, hope this helps:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0f3cH23FOks
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Offline swordfish

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2015, 09:08:27 PM »
Donna,

Thank you so much for the video. That clears up a lot of my questions.

Offline Bippo

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #37 on: October 13, 2015, 06:46:05 PM »
Quote from: pakeha date=1444382227 link=msg=347850

Hi

Like many of you I have been trying translate Bill's knowledge and experience into an approach that works for me.  A recent ah-ha for me has been trading off the 5 min 0 ATR (thanks Donna), but with the TL providing context (some of the more volatile pairs will reverse on the TL rather than the 0 ATR).  This precision with the trade entry really helps reach the 20 pip target.  

To better describe how I break down the trading day into cycles I have attached the EURUSD chart for Oct 8 (yesterday).  While it has quite a bit of information on it, there are 6 trades made - five 0 ATR reversals and a daily open reversal - for 115 pips.  I find this to be a low risk approach to implementing Bill's system.  

Comments welcome

Trevor H




Trevor,I really like your posts and charts
2 things that I like the most:

1-that indicator showing Moving averages crossing with colored cloud,very cool,make cycles switches more clear to see
2-your idea to add H4 stoch to the bottom,cool

p.s.
my results for the day,I currently have 5 safe positions on EURUSD running.




Offline Okda

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #38 on: October 13, 2015, 07:16:39 PM »
Quote from: donnaforex link=msg=346955 date=1442754856

attached current template


for some reason I can't find the attached template, can you please re-attach it again

I am interested in studying this system and I have just started a couple of hours ago

Offline FunCoupons

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #39 on: October 13, 2015, 08:29:56 PM »
Quote from: pakeha date=1444430033 link=msg=347875

Hi
You guys have inspired me to do one more chart review  :)  
Trevor H


Very nice Trevor,

This makes a very clear picture and helps out newbies a lot more than pip count posting. I too been trading with triple STO to determine the main cycle and don't plot a 5MA either. I like to keep charts as clean as possible. I use heiken ashi candles to paint a cleaner picture; however, I was advised not to post my setups here, so kudos to you to apply this great system to your own trading style. (keep'em coming  :D )

Donna & Bill are very knowledgeable and great teachers, you must be involved in the trading room to get your feet wet!
« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 08:33:20 PM by FunCoupons »
Success is neither magical nor mysterious. Success is the natural consequence of consistently applying basic fundamentals."
? Jim Rohn

Offline ichfunktion

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #40 on: October 13, 2015, 10:11:01 PM »
Quote from: pakeha date=1444382227 link=msg=347850

Hi

Like many of you I have been trying translate Bill's knowledge and experience into an approach that works for me.  A recent ah-ha for me has been trading off the 5 min 0 ATR (thanks Donna), but with the TL providing context (some of the more volatile pairs will reverse on the TL rather than the 0 ATR).  This precision with the trade entry really helps reach the 20 pip target.  

To better describe how I break down the trading day into cycles I have attached the EURUSD chart for Oct 8 (yesterday).  While it has quite a bit of information on it, there are 6 trades made - five 0 ATR reversals and a daily open reversal - for 115 pips.  I find this to be a low risk approach to implementing Bill's system.  

Comments welcome

Trevor H




Hi Trevor,
great work! For me it is very helpful to see how other traders are using the system with concrete examples.
I like also your strategy of consequent usage of the 0 ATR. Two questions came up as I visual "backtest" this on my MT4 platform:
1) Can you explain why you entered the second trade? The STO on M5 was not in the UZ. Has this to do with the counter cycle?
2) Did the price touched the DO line on your platform? On my MT4 the price retraced some pips before the DO was reached. Are you working with a limit order here some pips above the DO or do you try to "catch" the trade in the near of the DO?

Cheers,
JR

Offline pakeha

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #41 on: October 14, 2015, 07:07:06 AM »

Ichfunktion

Thanks, glad you found the charts helpful. Regarding your questions.

1. Yes, you are correct.  The 5M stoch is not in the upper zone in this example, and I have indicated it as a weak stoch signal on the chart.  However, the stoch raced up to the upper zone (in this case) and flashes, and then reverses on the same 5Min candle. While the stoch was in the upper zone it didn't stay long enough to be recorded there on the chart.  I really like to take the trades at the 0 ATR immediately after the MA cross which occurred in this case.  This has nothing to do with a counter cycle.

2. I always set my DO trades a few pips above/below the DO, so I don't get caught short (I have missed trades in the past).  In addition,  if there is a ATR line very close to the DO I will actually set my entry there.  I have found price reverses off an ATR line very close to the DO, rather than the DO itself. There was a really good example of that yesterday on the EURUSD at 9:30 on my broker (GMT+3 I think). 

Cheers

Trevor


Offline ichfunktion

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #42 on: October 14, 2015, 10:59:51 AM »
Quote from: pakeha link=msg=348031 date=1444802826


Ichfunktion

Thanks, glad you found the charts helpful. Regarding your questions.

1. Yes, you are correct.  The 5M stoch is not in the upper zone in this example, and I have indicated it as a weak stoch signal on the chart.  However, the stoch raced up to the upper zone (in this case) and flashes, and then reverses on the same 5Min candle. While the stoch was in the upper zone it didn't stay long enough to be recorded there on the chart.  I really like to take the trades at the 0 ATR immediately after the MA cross which occurred in this case.  This has nothing to do with a counter cycle.

2. I always set my DO trades a few pips above/below the DO, so I don't get caught short (I have missed trades in the past).  In addition,  if there is a ATR line very close to the DO I will actually set my entry there.  I have found price reverses off an ATR line very close to the DO, rather than the DO itself. There was a really good example of that yesterday on the EURUSD at 9:30 on my broker (GMT+3 I think). 

Cheers

Trevor




Thanks a lot for the explanation.
I'm testing now with visual backtests, because I have only limited time during the trading hours.
What I found is that your template is supporting your approach very good - I struggle a little bit with the default FX1DO template.
How did you got the hatched (is this the correct word here?) area between the ATR/MA and MA? Is there any change that you provide your template for other FX1DO traders?

Cheers,
JR

Online donnaforex

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #43 on: October 17, 2015, 04:00:20 PM »
Hi Steve,

Lovely setups, thanks for posting this. My favourite is trade 3, very nice, zero drawdown and right off the ATR!

Regarding your comment on trade 4... this is still a great trade! Ideally yes, enter closer to the 0 ATR, although in this instance you can see the setup zone is quite small so it isn't really a big deal either way. The main reason why i keep harking on about the 0 ATR in the trade room is from seeing people enter at really bad places when the setup zone is very wide just because they have seen a great move and are sad that they are missing out and are so desperate to get on board they jump in at really bad places - i have attached an example here to show what i'm talking about, i think you know what i mean but it'll be helpful for others ;) .

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Offline swordfish

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Re: Chart Setups / Discuss trades here
« Reply #44 on: October 17, 2015, 05:36:19 PM »
Great charts, Steve and great comments, Donna.
Using your chart example, Donna, how do you avoid the whipsaw areas? Was that the Asian session? Can't see.


« Last Edit: October 17, 2015, 05:50:05 PM by swordfish »

 

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