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Author Topic: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds  (Read 133735 times)

Offline Nasdaq100

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #450 on: February 15, 2019, 06:52:38 AM »


The fact that something is a grid system is by itself not immediately a disaster. Whether it's completely automated or with a good trader behind the wheel - the important thing is that the basket is terminated when the signs are there telling you it's unlikely to come back. And that's where most of them fail. They are either poor at getting this balance right (hence hitting SL too often and too far) or simply relying on the whole equity which eventually blows the whole project up.


In my opinion, adding to losses is not a bad idea as long as you can distinguish between market conditions that allows it.

The reason why grid systems fail all the time is because they add to losses most of the time. Which means there is absolutely no strategy involved.

For example: if your strategy gets you to buy from the 61% fibo level. If you buy and the price falls below that level then this is where you should exit and take the loss. If you don't exist every single time the price falls below the 61% fibo level, then your strategy is not based on the 61% fibo. In fact, its based on nothing but hold and pray.

That is why all grid systems fail, no matter for how long they get lucky.

Offline primi

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #451 on: February 15, 2019, 07:54:07 AM »
The difference between a one trade strategy and a grid strategy is that one trade strategies must be very accurate with entries in order to be successful whereas grid strategies (of the adding to losses variety) are designed in such a way that they can have some entry inaccuracy and they can get away with it by opening a basket of trades.

Both need a sound underlying strategy. If you don't know how to trade profitably you will not succeed with any of them. But grid trading if taken to the extreme will mask your incompetence possibly for a very long time. So the question is how do you know? Is it a good grid system or is it just a lucky incompetent guy? In my opinion the answer lies with the exits.

Offline Nasdaq100

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #452 on: February 15, 2019, 08:30:19 AM »
The difference between a one trade strategy and a grid strategy is that one trade strategies must be very accurate with entries in order to be successful whereas grid strategies (of the adding to losses variety) are designed in such a way that they can have some entry inaccuracy and they can get away with it by opening a basket of trades.

Both need a sound underlying strategy. If you don't know how to trade profitably you will not succeed with any of them. But grid trading if taken to the extreme will mask your incompetence possibly for a very long time. So the question is how do you know? Is it a good grid system or is it just a lucky incompetent guy? In my opinion the answer lies with the exits.

If you know how to time your entry/exit then why trade on a grid strategy in the first place?!

for example: if you know that the eurusd downtrend will reverse from a certain point, then why would you not just wait for the likely reversal levels and enter a buy with specific stoploss?

Instead of hold on a bunch of sell trades, and expose your self to market changes (especially the currency market, trends can change literally over night) while having a very bad risk:reward ratio!



Offline AttilaG

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #453 on: February 15, 2019, 10:58:53 AM »
  It is a question  of time before this goes into oblivion ! Aiming for a private firm is the best for the trader
   the client gets a monthly report end shut up :)

  It took  5 years  for Viper to disappear after he earned 1million from Nick .

Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #454 on: February 23, 2019, 12:31:15 AM »
So to follow up on my previous postings, i went ahead and did what i said i was going to do and ive setup a demo account and applied some basic filters to OTBHK signal. The remaining trades that make it past the initial entry filters are taken in a contrarian direction to OTBHK, so buys become sells and visa versa... i wasnt expecting him to trade USDZAR and so the results would be better without them as the pip filter and SL i used was way too fine for an exotic pair like UZ and it hit SL immediately. Once a contrarian trade is triggered - there is a fixed SL and TP with positive RRR greater than 1 - usually 3:1 or thereabouts. With tight stops - there can never be DD - although i will have to accept a much lower win rate. Over time however, it could provide much safer banked profit, historical visual back test shows promising results... Im still tuning the settings tho-will see where this ends up in a few more weeks/months...

Its only a very small sample size over the last week i know - but this is what the result was so far, both screen shots assume a zero starting point from 7 days ago... the first one is OTBHK and includes floating PnL. The second is the "anti" trades on my demo... there is only a few trades, but the ones that do get triggered are usually pretty good ones - which are triggered by the bad ones from OTBHK which are triggered by a predetermined DD pips for entry... Going forward - all exostics are filtered out and will only trigger off the majors and crosses OTBHK trades...

The basis for this was simple - if OTBHK gets a trade which immediately goes 10-15pips profit, then his signal scalps the TP and we ignore those and cancel the pending order based off it when his position closes. If his signal is wrong, then he doesnt SL but instead holds them in DD - sometimes to -200pips or more.  Its the latter which im trying to catch via the tuning...
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 12:53:23 AM by groper »

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #455 on: February 23, 2019, 06:39:27 AM »
So to follow up on my previous postings, i went ahead and did what i said i was going to do and ive setup a demo account and applied some basic filters to OTBHK signal. The remaining trades that make it past the initial entry filters are taken in a contrarian direction to OTBHK, so buys become sells and visa versa... i wasnt expecting him to trade USDZAR and so the results would be better without them as the pip filter and SL i used was way too fine for an exotic pair like UZ and it hit SL immediately. 

back test shows promising results... Im still tuning the settings tho-will see where this ends up in a few more weeks/months...

 Its the latter which im trying to catch via the tuning...

Great!
Let us know how it goes.  It will take a lot of management let me tell you.  Automated trading is not all it is cracked up to be.
Let's see your equity curve and proof that you have taken exactly all the OPPOSITE trades as my signal after 6 months.  Or even better yet 24 months, which is what I have achieved.  In that period my system has returned over 2238%.
https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/BUX.4.4/


« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 09:36:24 AM by outsidetheboxhk »
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Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #456 on: February 23, 2019, 10:29:44 AM »
Thats not how it works Greg - it doesnt take contrarian trades to ALL of the trades you take. What happens is - when you open a position - it instantly creates a pending order in the opposite direction, at a price which is a set pip distance from your entry price. So what happens is - if you take a scalp and the entry is accurate - you get get your scalp and as soon as you close the position - it cancels the pending order created on my demo account associated with your closed position that originally created it. Then it waits for the next order, does the same, and so on and so on... This all happens automatically with no input from me.

The idea is, when you take successful scalps with little drawdown - the pending orders on my account get created but never filled as your positions are always in profit. Then those unfilled pending orders get cancelled automatically when you close your winners. So when you close a winner - it invalidates my setup and clears it.
However - when you open a position that is not accurate and goes into DD - the price moves against your position and eventually hits my pending orders lying in wait. If the price keeps going in the same direction, my position moves further into profit as your goes further into DD until my TP is hit  -OR-  the price reverses back in your favour and i get stopped out.

The main difference here is that my positions ALWAYS have a circa 3:1 RRR, with fixed SL and the account can never go into DD more than a handful of pips per position. I expect a much lower win rate than your signal - but no drawdown that goes with yours. I have no idea how profitable it will be as it cannot be back tested. Hence we will see how the forward testing goes from here on. I can say one thing tho - the more drawdown you get into and the more you try to fight a trend - the more profit my account makes!

Dont feel too disheartened tho - im running this same test against a bunch of other signals which i can see like to fight trends, use grid or matingale systems and or hold and prey type trading styles :)

« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 10:45:54 AM by groper »

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #457 on: February 23, 2019, 11:17:42 AM »
Thats not how it works Greg - it doesnt take contrarian trades to ALL of the trades you take. What happens is - when you open a position - it instantly creates a pending order in the opposite direction, at a price which is a set pip distance from your entry price. So what happens is - if you take a scalp and the entry is accurate - you get get your scalp and as soon as you close the position - it cancels the pending order created on my demo account associated with your closed position that originally created it. Then it waits for the next order, does the same, and so on and so on... This all happens automatically with no input from me.

The idea is, when you take successful scalps with little drawdown - the pending orders on my account get created but never filled as your positions are always in profit. Then those unfilled pending orders get cancelled automatically when you close your winners. So when you close a winner - it invalidates my setup and clears it.
However - when you open a position that is not accurate and goes into DD - the price moves against your position and eventually hits my pending orders lying in wait. If the price keeps going in the same direction, my position moves further into profit as your goes further into DD until my TP is hit  -OR-  the price reverses back in your favour and i get stopped out.

1.  You are using Demo account -- no skin in the game
2.  You are engaging in the markets to disprove / discredit other traders who are at least trying to make a profit
3.  Your system is built off the work of someone else
4.  You sure as hell better study my MFA/MAE chart very carefully if you want to beat my Return on Investment stats
5.  Your petulant behavior / experiments are negativity-based and not positivity-geared --- so do us all a favor - keep it to yourself.
6.  come back to me when you have over $1,000,000 assets under your management, over 400 trade copying subscribers, or 24 months of a proven profitable strategy.
7.  Thanks for causing the Barbara Streisand effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect) for my strategies
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 11:21:06 AM by outsidetheboxhk »
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Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #458 on: February 23, 2019, 12:06:02 PM »
1. Why would i risk real money on a unknown strategy? that would be stupidity... but rest assured i have plenty of skin in the real game elsewhere...
2. Yes - and that is my prerogative to do as i wish- its a free world and freedom of information is a good thing for everyone.
3. Its based off nothing that is not possible with freely available information, and thus i can do as i wish with it. If your strategy is based off ichimoku, MACD and the likes - then isnt your strategy based off of the work of others also?
4. See attached screen shot of what might be possible with the basic and very flawed back test simulator results... i fully do not expect as good an outcome as this shows-  but i would not be surprised if it did generate some sort of profit, how much remains to be seen... your history is the blue line - the green line is the contrarian strategy.
5. Petulant?  the pot is calling the kettle black dont you think?
6. Sure thing, ill do that.  But in the meantime why dont you show me a copy of your degree in mathematics, or proof of any of the other claims you make about your skills or qualifications. I cannot see any evidence of a trained or skilled professional in your trading so the onus is on you if you wish to ethically offer your service and generate income from it. Ill take your silence on this to mean you do not have a degree at all, and have misrepresented yourself on many other fronts aswell.
7. Your welcome :)
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 01:19:20 PM by groper »

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #459 on: February 24, 2019, 12:12:15 AM »
1. Why would i risk real money on a unknown strategy? that would be stupidity... but rest assured i have plenty of skin in the real game elsewhere...

So why would people listen to you when you haven't proven anything and you are not risking anything to prove it?

Quote
2. Yes - and that is my prerogative to do as i wish- its a free world and freedom of information is a good thing for everyone.

My trade data will not be "free" as you say for much longer, so get it while you can.  This data is valuable and it is generated by a professional and that is why to receive it real-time as actionable you must pay either a performance fee or monthly fee.


Quote
3. Its based off nothing that is not possible with freely available information, and thus i can do as i wish with it. If your strategy is based off ichimoku, MACD and the likes - then isnt your strategy based off of the work of others also?

Yes it took me at least 5 years of monitoring and watching price action on certain currency pairs to prove which indicators (and when and how) could be most predictable and repeatable.  This was a long case study in order for it to be tweaked to be most profitable and most consistent.


Quote
4. See attached screen shot of what might be possible with the basic and very flawed back test simulator results... i fully do not expect as good an outcome as this shows-  but i would not be surprised if it did generate some sort of profit, how much remains to be seen... your history is the blue line - the green line is the contrarian strategy.

This is one of the most ridiculous of your examples and very over simplified and misleading.  You probably already know why, but your purpose of being here is to just troll me no matter what, and that is why "reason" and "proven profitability" does not really rank highest on your priority list for these particular traders you would like to harass.  The ones who you say are running martingales or grids that you have decided need to be eliminated or trolled to no end.  I guess you have an axe to grind for some reason. Scam hunting is educational and funny and draws interest from societal "drama addiction" and "outrage addiction" -- https://craigconnects.org/2012/08/02/trolls-fake-trolls-and-outrage-addiction/ -- but doesn't pay.
Finding losers is easy but to make money you need the winners.

You have posted a back test using ONLY like TWO and a HALF months of my strategy. 
My data is from real live market conditions. Yours is fluff.
Why not show the back test on all the data since the beginning of the trade strategy in July 2017?
You have only chosen a time where I have recovered from drawdown as your reason you think you are so smart and I am somehow deluded after getting such great returns over 24 months --- and bringing many investors along for the ride as well.


Quote
6. Sure thing, ill do that.  But in the meantime why dont you show me a copy of your degree in mathematics, or proof of any of the other claims you make about your skills or qualifications. I cannot see any evidence of a trained or skilled professional in your trading so the onus is on you if you wish to ethically offer your service and generate income from it. Ill take your silence on this to mean you do not have a degree at all, and have misrepresented yourself on many other fronts aswell.

This is why I called you "petulant".  You act like you know something that you actually do not fully understand, but you just act like it is fact, without proving or explaining why you have the right to even question or ask. 
I don't owe you shit.
Trading is performance based, full stop.  Pure and simple.
Credentials don't mean shit in this business.  I have seen plenty of very smart techies who end up closing shop for one reason or another.  Because it is NOT ONLY due to intelligence that one becomes a good trader.  You need heart, conviction, courage, determination, and more than anything else the ability to have your own belief even when everyone else is harassing you and demeaning you.

Regardless, take a look at my LinkedIn profile.  How could I have worked at the most prestigious private school in New Zealand and Colombia and a very reputable school in Hong Kong without a verified mathematics credential?
https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregoryherron/
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 02:02:28 AM by outsidetheboxhk »
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Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #460 on: February 24, 2019, 01:56:38 PM »
i see you are a high school teacher - with a degree in education not mathematics... congratulations, its a noble job - but it does little to instill investor confidence in your trading skills. A real degree in mathematics or statistics or economics or a dozen other fields would be a different story, but its all starting to make sense now...

Another thing-  The term "professor" - applies to post secondary school education - ie tertiary or university level - but im sure you know that. I dont see any of your employment history at that level and youve therefore misled investors by calling yourself a "professor of mathematics" which implies you were teaching at university level and clearly you have not. As you know - university level lecturers or professors generally have a degree and most likely honors or PhD in the field they teach - you have attempted to imply this without directly saying it, by calling yourself a math professor. I would urge you to change your strategy descriptions across all the platforms you send signals from to remove the misleading references to you being a "mathematics professor". Failure to do so - may open the doors to legal action against you for providing misleading information to investors. You are a secondary school math teacher - not a math professor.

« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 02:10:01 PM by groper »

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #461 on: February 24, 2019, 05:37:02 PM »
i see you are a high school teacher - with a degree in education not mathematics... congratulations, its a noble job - but it does little to instill investor confidence in your trading skills. A real degree in mathematics or statistics or economics or a dozen other fields would be a different story, but its all starting to make sense now...

Another thing-  The term "professor" - applies to post secondary school education - ie tertiary or university level - but im sure you know that. I dont see any of your employment history at that level and youve therefore misled investors by calling yourself a "professor of mathematics" which implies you were teaching at university level and clearly you have not. As you know - university level lecturers or professors generally have a degree and most likely honors or PhD in the field they teach - you have attempted to imply this without directly saying it, by calling yourself a math professor. I would urge you to change your strategy descriptions across all the platforms you send signals from to remove the misleading references to you being a "mathematics professor". Failure to do so - may open the doors to legal action against you for providing misleading information to investors. You are a secondary school math teacher - not a math professor.

1. I'm so glad it's becoming more and more obvious you are just a troll.
2. My undergraduate degree (BA) is Mathematics, graduated from Judson University, only my MA is in Ed.
3. "In some countries or institutions, the word professor is also used in titles of lower ranks such as associate professor and assistant professor; this is particularly the case in the United States, where the word professor is sometimes used colloquially to refer to anyone in an academic post" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professor

Anything else, Professor Groper (what does that even mean?  You grope those of the opposite sex?)
This is fun, what next?
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Offline Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #462 on: February 24, 2019, 07:59:16 PM »
i see you are a high school teacher - with a degree in education not mathematics... congratulations, its a noble job - but it does little to instill investor confidence in your trading skills. A real degree in mathematics or statistics or economics or a dozen other fields would be a different story, but its all starting to make sense now...

Another thing-  The term "professor" - applies to post secondary school education - ie tertiary or university level - but im sure you know that. I dont see any of your employment history at that level and youve therefore misled investors by calling yourself a "professor of mathematics" which implies you were teaching at university level and clearly you have not. As you know - university level lecturers or professors generally have a degree and most likely honors or PhD in the field they teach - you have attempted to imply this without directly saying it, by calling yourself a math professor. I would urge you to change your strategy descriptions across all the platforms you send signals from to remove the misleading references to you being a "mathematics professor". Failure to do so - may open the doors to legal action against you for providing misleading information to investors. You are a secondary school math teacher - not a math professor.

1. I'm so glad it's becoming more and more obvious you are just a troll.
2. My undergraduate degree (BA) is Mathematics, graduated from Judson University, only my MA is in Ed.
3. "In some countries or institutions, the word professor is also used in titles of lower ranks such as associate professor and assistant professor; this is particularly the case in the United States, where the word professor is sometimes used colloquially to refer to anyone in an academic post" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professor

Anything else, Professor Groper (what does that even mean?  You grope those of the opposite sex?)?
This is fun, what next?

I would ask that this back and forth "conversation" please stop; it is beyond civility and has reached mud slinging!


Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #463 on: February 24, 2019, 10:41:04 PM »

Quote
I would ask that this back and forth "conversation" please stop; it is beyond civility and has reached mud slinging!

Regards,
HumbleTrader


Certainly not a problem on my end.
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Offline Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #464 on: February 24, 2019, 10:42:56 PM »

Quote
I would ask that this back and forth "conversation" please stop; it is beyond civility and has reached mud slinging!

Regards,
HumbleTrader


Certainly not a problem on my end.

Thank you, OTB.

Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

 

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