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Author Topic: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds  (Read 111122 times)

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #435 on: February 12, 2019, 01:05:27 PM »
you obviously don't know how to compute the profitability and edge of my system.

hit rate:  94%
average pip gain:  10.6 pips
average pip loss:  73 pips
number of trades:  1227

this is not going to blow up.  low risk.
similar stats for medium risk and some high risk.  take profits while you can on high risk.
start over once one blows up.

I made over $100,000 last year. 
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$2,000,000 funds following on trade copying
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Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #436 on: February 13, 2019, 07:51:22 AM »
you obviously don't know how to compute the profitability and edge of my system.

hit rate:  94%
average pip gain:  10.6 pips
average pip loss:  73 pips
number of trades:  1227

this is not going to blow up.  low risk.
similar stats for medium risk and some high risk.  take profits while you can on high risk.
start over once one blows up.

I made over $100,000 last year. 
$800,000 AuM
$2,000,000 funds following on trade copying

You like to talk about speaking respectfully - did you consider your words carefully with your above retort?

YOU OBVIOUSLY cannot read or comprehend what i asked you properly... ::)

I politely asked you how you would manage a situation pertaining to drawdown and negative swaps, aswell as a couple of other things. I also noted that your statistics about win rate and profitability can be replicated by many Grid based systems over a reasonably long period of time at low risk settings and it means nothing about the future success or failure of your system.
What i simply wanted you to address - for the benefit of anyone considering investing with you - is to hear what your plan is for managing a situation where a long term trend forms against your positions - and in particular - a situation where the positions have high holding costs in swaps - such as the UJ positions you hold now.

Im not being mean or nasty here Greg - i just want honest infomation from you. I admit i havnt been completely honest with you either - my multiple forex trade following accounts also exceed $100k. I allocated a small part of 1 of my accounts to your system briefly - but i did not like what i saw and so withdrew from it. I still check up on it frequently however.
I am always looking at different systems and methods to trade and how i can invest my money in ways that are profitable. If you are to attract serious investors to your signal - i think you need to do better than what ive seen both in your trading risk taking and what youve written in these social spaces.

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #437 on: February 13, 2019, 10:25:51 AM »
Quote
but there is always an end some day when a strong trend forms and simply keeps on going for a long period of time - any experienced trader knows this.

You don't need to write this here.  Or the stuff about not closing enough of a core position, because it doesn't apply to my trade plan or execution.  I don't reveal ALL the nitty gritty of my trading skills day to day, but needless to say I always manage risk by scaling in and scaling out of secondary trades intraday to collect enough profit to more than cover costs for swap. Yesterday I made $32 while swap was $5.  No biggie.  I'm positioning for a big velocity move once risk turns.

My prospective clients or subscribers can do their own analysis and decisions without you pointing them without sufficient data, instruction, or strategy.  This is my job if they want to know they can ask me directly.  You only need to look at my equity curve, and ratio between max risk over the span of 18 months for the current master account and 24 months for the longer one on low risk to see that monthly average profits are recovering from short drawdown periods and compounding capital.

My max risk for a basket is 7 to 9% before I consider scaling out.  We are currently at 3.5% open drawdown with 3.5% booked profit.
implying or saying that I have not comprehended or read is just rubbish.  I know far more and understand far more than I care to explain when it is me doing the trading 15 hours per day, and honestly micro-managing my trading is extremely counter-productive.  You can manage your own account without knowing my every move intraday and intraweek.

Bear in mind ONE important thing.  Signal copiers who are "serious" and make serious profits piggy back off me is NOT what I am seeking.  They are not compensating me what I am worth.  That will be phased out this year with 2.5 year to 3 year profitable track record and then everyone will be pushed to up the ante to keep following me into the future the way other big investors are doing.  25 to 30% high water mark performance fees without the need to explain day in and day out to investors who have their own accounts.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2019, 10:29:00 AM by outsidetheboxhk »
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Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #438 on: February 14, 2019, 08:10:55 AM »
You say i dont need to write this here? of course i do not need to do anything here - i choose to - however the same thing applies equally to you!

For example - you dont need to repeatedly tell people to look at your equity curve, or your 24 months track record - again diverting attention away from more relevant data. You say things like booked profit of 3.5% this week - but you still hold vastly more than that in DD and floating PnL! So do you really need to write that here?

Heres relvant data that i see - all verifiable by your account data on myfxbook mt cook master account;
Your profitiability over the last 4 months;
nov 2018 -> total profit 5.6%, max drawdown = 11.3%
dec 2018 -> total profit 4.0%, max drawdown = negligible
Jan 2019 -> total profit -0.1%, max drawdown = 6.3%
Feb 2019 -> total profit 3.6% with a floating PnL - of -$450 which means your equity and floating PnL is still so far negative in this current month, max DD 6.2%.

The above data shows that your drawdown considerably exceeds your profit and therefore the trade accuracy is poor and its the same  right throughout your history where the DD is constantly higher than the profit. A good system would consistently have the monthly profit higher than the DD.

This type of data is much more important when considering the survive-ability of the system. The continual averaging of loosing positions in your grid like system keeps your equity curve just barely above CPI over the last quarter. An average person would do better keeping their cash in an offset account against their home mortgage rather than take the risks of forex trading with this system... Of course you could increase the risks on the account - but then again you already tried that and blew up 2 accounts in the process... As a simple experiment - im tempted to open contrarian positions to everyone of yours in a cent account and see which account does better over the next 3 months- i doubt there would be much if any difference!

Everytime i ask you about how you manage your system, which is extremely relevant information because the risks and flaws associated with grid and martingale systems are very well known and publicized - you get all defensive about it which does nothing to inspire any investor confidence im afraid. Nothing youve explained or written here addresses the key points of why your grid system will not be prone to the same failures of other grid systems which have proven to be flawed. If your system truly is different - then you should simply take the time to explain why instead of insulting peoples intelligence by pointing them to meaningless data for confirmation... Grid systems are great for signal provider commissions tho, so i guess your on the right path and i see you like boasting about your earnings - you wont get any argument from me on that...





« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 08:25:29 AM by groper »

Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #439 on: February 14, 2019, 12:39:44 PM »
Heres an interesting development... using the back testing simulator on zulu trade - i was able to input various parameters with a contrarian setting of your last 3 months history. I used a TP of 100 pips and a SL of 30 pips and switched buys to sells and visa versa. The blue line is your real live equity, the green line shows the contrarian setting i created. Its almost an exact mirror of the curve finishing at the same final equity 3 months later...

The second chart shows a back test over 6 months, again with contrarian settings  - which equity curve do you like better? i think i prefer the contrarian setting... maybe because it also has a RRR of 3:1...

This goes along way as far as suggesting that your system doesnt really have an edge - its just hold and prey grid trading.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 12:59:31 PM by groper »

Offline Nasdaq100

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #440 on: February 14, 2019, 12:55:09 PM »
Heres an interesting development... using the back testing simulator on zulu trade - i was able to input various parameters with a contrarian setting of your last 3 months history. I used a TP of 100 pips and a SL of 30 pips and switched buys to sells and visa versa. The blue line is your real live equity, the green line shows the contrarian setting i created. Its almost an exact mirror of the curve finishing at the same final equity 3 months later...

This goes along way as far as suggesting that your system doesnt really have an edge - its just hold and prey grid trading.

Groper, could you please explain how this tool work and how can you suggest that his system is a hold and pray?

How can zulu provide such tools when nearly all there systems (99%) are hold and pray, its bad for their business.

Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #441 on: February 14, 2019, 01:14:08 PM »
i knew i would sneak up on it eventually - but here is the final setting after spending all of 10 mins tweaking it;

My settings contrarian to OTBHK with a 8:1 RRR - TP = 55pips and SL = 7 pips and offset=15 setting. my (green) contrarian settings have a 10% better ROI over 6 months back test history (462 trades) than OTBHK... all this with a CONTRARIAN setting! Look at that equity curve! who wouldnt want the green one??? and drawdown never exceeding 7 pips per position. i might start trading this on a demo account and we will see where we are in a few months shall we?
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 02:16:53 PM by groper »

Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #442 on: February 14, 2019, 01:28:41 PM »
Heres an interesting development... using the back testing simulator on zulu trade - i was able to input various parameters with a contrarian setting of your last 3 months history. I used a TP of 100 pips and a SL of 30 pips and switched buys to sells and visa versa. The blue line is your real live equity, the green line shows the contrarian setting i created. Its almost an exact mirror of the curve finishing at the same final equity 3 months later...

This goes along way as far as suggesting that your system doesnt really have an edge - its just hold and prey grid trading.

Groper, could you please explain how this tool work and how can you suggest that his system is a hold and pray?

How can zulu provide such tools when nearly all there systems (99%) are hold and pray, its bad for their business.

Yes i know most signals are rubbish on zulutrade...
There is a back testing tool which you can use and it uses the traders history obtained from their broker.
The system is hold and prey because you can get equal or better results - as i have shown above - by taking a contrarian approach and have it equal or better than the signal your mirroring. If the signal had a real edge - you could never achieve a profitable result like this.

So in essence - the way the system works is just like any other grid EA. It simply opens positions and closes them at a set TP like a scalper. When a trend forms - it goes into DD and keeps opening positions averaging down/up and eventually gets a market turn which allows them to close. If the market doesnt turn - they either stop out at a huge SL or they hold them indefinitely in DD... usually the system can make a profit because the market rarely goes in a straight line. However when it does - the strategy gets wiped out or simply becomes unprofitable is risk is kept small for the account size.
The whole time this is happening - the trader gets rich of pip comissions for every position opened. Clear as mud? of course it is :)

Online primi

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #443 on: February 14, 2019, 01:33:09 PM »
Dear groper,

that's amateur thinking! You should be trading both really. A lot of the time you'll be hedged anyway and then you'll collect profits first one way and then the other way. Perfect plan.

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #444 on: February 14, 2019, 01:56:16 PM »
i knew i would sneak up on it eventually - but here is the final setting after spending all of 10 mins tweaking it;

My settings contrarian to yours with a 8:1 RRR - TP = 55pips and SL = 7 pips and offset=15 setting. my (green) contrarian settings have a 10% better ROI over 6 months back test history (462 trades) than yours... all this with a CONTRARIAN setting! Look at that equity curve! who wouldnt want the green one??? and drawdown never exceeding 7 pips per position. i might start trading this on a demo account and we will see where we are in a few months shall we?



Fine.  Now do it NOT back testing.
Real live trading, without automation, without hind sight, without using my choices to help you.
Then come back and show us in 6 months.
you'll be a millionaire.
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Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #445 on: February 14, 2019, 01:58:07 PM »
I say this, because I know it's not that easy.
What about entry levels?
Who decides when to enter the market and at what lot size?
Anyway, dude, just get busy doing it yourself. 
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Offline gpfwestie

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #446 on: February 14, 2019, 03:19:26 PM »
i knew i would sneak up on it eventually - but here is the final setting after spending all of 10 mins tweaking it;

My settings contrarian to OTBHK with a 8:1 RRR - TP = 55pips and SL = 7 pips and offset=15 setting. my (green) contrarian settings have a 10% better ROI over 6 months back test history (462 trades) than OTBHK...

Hi Groper, I agree with pretty much everything you've said in this thread, but I don't think this is a valid point.

I've spent way to much time coding EA's, back testing them and running through the MT4 Optimisation thing  >:(

What I have learnt is - you can take any kind of system, give it enough parameters and get it to produce a profit (curve fitting). Effectively you just tune it to work perfectly with the exact data you gave it. If you feed it any other data (out of set data) it'll fail nearly 100% of the time.

What you've done here seems pretty similar, take the entry history from the signal, fiddle with some numbers till you got the result you were looking for.

Just my opinion, quite happy to be wrong  :)

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #447 on: February 14, 2019, 03:36:00 PM »
fiddle with some numbers till you got the result you were looking for.

Exactly what courage and risk-taking is all about.
Then people with back-testing and hind sight come in and criticise you saying they can do better by looking back and somehow knowing what to do in the heat of the moment -- but you don't have that advantage when you live in the present time and real world.
That is why I hate giving explanations and defenses of what I have achieved, because really investors just want to have an ATM machine with no drawdowns or else they will emotionally breakdown and cry.  This is why they pay us to do it for them.
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Offline groper

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #448 on: February 14, 2019, 09:16:33 PM »
i knew i would sneak up on it eventually - but here is the final setting after spending all of 10 mins tweaking it;

My settings contrarian to OTBHK with a 8:1 RRR - TP = 55pips and SL = 7 pips and offset=15 setting. my (green) contrarian settings have a 10% better ROI over 6 months back test history (462 trades) than OTBHK...

Hi Groper, I agree with pretty much everything you've said in this thread, but I don't think this is a valid point.

I've spent way to much time coding EA's, back testing them and running through the MT4 Optimisation thing  >:(

What I have learnt is - you can take any kind of system, give it enough parameters and get it to produce a profit (curve fitting). Effectively you just tune it to work perfectly with the exact data you gave it. If you feed it any other data (out of set data) it'll fail nearly 100% of the time.

What you've done here seems pretty similar, take the entry history from the signal, fiddle with some numbers till you got the result you were looking for.

Just my opinion, quite happy to be wrong  :)

I completely agree with you on being able to fiddle the numbers and get a result closer to what your looking for- 100% agree. However ive never been able to get remotely close to the profit generated by a good signal in this way that i have here- in fact, taking a contrarian approach usually results in consistent losses which blows up the account quite quickly. I found this not to be the case with OTBHK history - it was very easy to get results similar to his profits with minimal tweaking of the contrarian approach- i was even able to considerably exceed his profits with more tweaking. I believe it to be the case because the fundamental basis behind his system is a basic grid EA which simply takes an arbitrary position in the market and either scalps TP or holds in DD until close and therefore it will work for given period of time any which way - same as any other grid EA, until a strong trend eventually makes it unprofitable...

If your familiar with coding EAs - perhaps you would share your knowledge about grid EAs and your views about OTBHKs signal - i am now 100% convinced OTBHKs signal is generated by a cheap grid EA despite gregs denials about this after playing with the back testing of his trade history - i would appreciate your opinion on it!

Online primi

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #449 on: February 14, 2019, 11:27:10 PM »
The so called contrarian approach depends greatly on entry accuracy of the original trades. The worse they are the better chances you have of making profit trading the opposite way. Grid trading is probably as good as it gets for this approach and on the other end of the spectrum is a system with tight stops where you'd get killed very quickly.

The fact that something is a grid system is by itself not immediately a disaster. Whether it's completely automated or with a good trader behind the wheel - the important thing is that the basket is terminated when the signs are there telling you it's unlikely to come back. And that's where most of them fail. They are either poor at getting this balance right (hence hitting SL too often and too far) or simply relying on the whole equity which eventually blows the whole project up.

I haven't looked into it too deeply but what Greg's doing here is somewhat similar to what Viper was doing. There were many trades within a basket of sorts but they were hardly ever treated as a whole. Meaning trades were closed either individually or as sub-baskets. Viper did not (from memory) escalate lot sizes, Greg does but again not like you'd expect from a grid system that exits the whole basket in one go. At least at this time he's not doing it like that. I'm not sure this fits what you're calling "basic grid EA".

There is of course this issue of knowing when to get out. With the last "high risk signal" that blew up he did not know when to get out. Not only because it blew up but also because of the price action that was just not very bearish. You could say that he got unlucky because he blew up pretty much at the turning point it turned out. But that's hindsight and it could easily just go up more. Running any kind of grid EA very hot is of course pretty dangerous because it tends to get unstable at the most inappropriate of times. Does it mean that he'll get in trouble with low risk systems as well? It will certainly take longer to get in trouble and it's much easier to devise a plan to minimize losses. But losses you have to take. You have to get out when it makes sense to get out not because you're running out of margin or self imposed DD limit. That's usually the worst time to close trades.

If you only have access to equity you can make some conclusions. You'd need access to individual trades to make more conclusions. Or better ones. At the very least you'd have to take a look at losing trades.

 

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