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Author Topic: Pants down  (Read 2405 times)

Offline fulltimetrader

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Pants down
« on: November 15, 2018, 07:42:32 AM »
I am an on and off regular visitor of Donna's forum but I never contributed that much.
Yesterday I was affected by the message from member grgr who wrote he quits FX due to too many losses and the lack of profitable systems.
His negative experience seems to be supported by this forum's discouraging Forum Test Accounts list.

So how can we proceed, realistic and positive? Here is my idea.
I am thinking of starting a new thread dedicated to 100% automated trading, where members can write one post. By posting, the contributor shows he/she trusts the system that he/she has developed. That post should include some basic explanation about the strategy and the reason for trust, plus at least a picture of a backtest. Additions:  WFA report, .....
And most important: a MyFXBook account link, either being a demo or live account.

Just that. A clean thread which lists trading accounts. No further input from readers, no questions, no remarks.

So what is the purpose? That could be:
- show you trust your works
- keeping you focussed and responsible for trading your plan
- show the world FX can be profitable
- possibly finding some good strategies which could fit in a robust portfolio.

That last bullet is the interesting part.
Can we develop a partnership?
Can we develop a diversified low-risk EA portfolio containing trend following, range trading, and breakout systems?
Combining systems that smoothen the portfolio drawdown phase?

Of course, there needs to be room for discussion. But that should be done in (a) seperate thread(s).

This is just my two cents. I am ready to contribute.
Of course, this idea needs a lot of additional and refining ideas.
It's just a start. Or the end of my idea.


Offline JonasBlixx

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2018, 09:05:14 AM »
I was close to quitting too.
I look at metric of Bestscalper and gain was +40 pips month with DD around 85pips (at that time, much worse since)

i thought surely i can do 40pips a week, not even a month. So Blixxster scalp was born. I use TP 5pips, 15pips Max Stop loss, exit normally before that, Stop at around 20-25pips target for day, use 2 levels of scale. 8am on London time. Plenty of price action.
Early myfxbook, but did much manual backtest to Jan 18 and average 15pips a day, including loss days.
I look around and see top signals on MQL, hamster etc, Tp like 3-4 pips and SL 150. What do people expect will happen some day? Its bonkers.

I decided i am done with EA and i think only way to crack it is hard screen time.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/blixxster/blixxster-scalp/2751700
« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 09:13:30 AM by JonasBlixx »

Offline reinerh

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2018, 05:07:48 PM »

jonas,

i think your approach is quite good, but the rr is still not good enough.

a little bit more tweaking might be needed.

Offline reinerh

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2018, 05:17:43 PM »

fulltime,

i think thats a great idea to show people that its possible to make a living trading fx vs grgr negative outlook.

this year 2 of my strategies have gone by the wayside, but i been working on new ones going forward all year. but this year certainly was not good to me, but years before that were very green and make up for this year in a big way.

so now i am already looking forward to next year, by then i will have several new strategies coming online.

Online FLechdrop

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2018, 06:08:11 PM »
I think the key is not risking too much on strategies that have not yet been sufficiently proven; finding simple, stable strategies that work in different environments; accepting that most strategies will fail and keep solving all the problems you run into

 This last bit may work better if you are making EAs yourself, because you have more options to tweak. Every time you will find a new weakest link and you have to fix all of these until you have something that is long term profitable.

I think it should be possible, though I can imagine the disappointment if you have been trying for years, lost a lot of money, and are still not there.

About the thread idea, there is one weak spot: if I found something that worked miraculously well, I am really not so sure I would share it in a public forum. Not because I don't want others to be successful as well, but because if a strategy gets too popular it may very well stop working. Ideally, everyone should find his or her own way of being successful.

Offline alex100

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2018, 07:30:50 PM »
You need EAs just to help you to manage your manual trading. That's it.

Offline fulltimetrader

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2018, 07:43:54 PM »
Thank you Reiner for your input. That picture looks great. Well done and congratulations.
Is the setup robust and promising?

This would be one of my contributions:



(I wonder if that image is inserted here. If not, sorry. Please find it attached to this post).

It's a backtest 2010-2018.
This strategy can be traded with big volume. (That's indeed a requirement, Flechdrop).
Con: expect and accept several months of DD. (That's why a portfolio would be welcome).
Pro, to mention a few:  Good WFA test. 6 Pips expectancy. Confirmed by forward trading.

FLechdrop, good to do a bit of brainstorming here.
Your point is good to discuss. What is reasonable regarding sharing systems? My initial thought for the thread is showing proof that system development and confirmation by live trading is worthwhile and implementation in real trading can be successful. Sharing EA's was not my initial thought.
It would be awesome to see what we can do for and with each other. More input on this is welcome. Sharing free EA's wouldn't indeed be smart for the reason you mention. But there are ways to build a robust portfolio together by combining well-diversified strategies. 

Ideally: give some kind of trading access to a broader public. I am not sure if that goal should be defined, though. And I am not sure how that would be possible.

The thread idea focusses in the first stage on gathering information regarding
1) promising EA's
2) on what bases does the developer think it is promising? What does he/she expect regarding risk and reward? Robustness?
3) how performs trading going forward, on a demo and ideally with real money?
4) give insight to each other to see how often promising ideas succeed or fail.
5) no hero ranking.

Brainstorming here...
Together, please :)

Offline reinerh

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2018, 08:15:01 PM »

fulltime,

the image i posted is a manual strategy i been working on for several years. yes its very promising once it will be fully developed which is still a way of, even so i trade it live already.

my initial approach which was very successfull last year was longer duration but it had its ups and downs, now avg trade length is only a few hours and its much more consistent.

its forward tested extensively but no bt since that cant be done.

i had a great outbreak strategy which was extensively backtested but that one failed around end last year.

now i am focusing more on my manual which i have much more faith in, but it takes a lot of time to dial in properly.


Offline fulltimetrader

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2018, 08:18:09 PM »
Manual trading.... even more congratulations! Super well done. Keep up the good work!

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2018, 08:24:27 PM »
I think the key is not risking too much on strategies that have not yet been sufficiently proven; finding simple, stable strategies that work in different environments; accepting that most strategies will fail and keep solving all the problems you run into

 This last bit may work better if you are making EAs yourself, because you have more options to tweak. Every time you will find a new weakest link and you have to fix all of these until you have something that is long term profitable.

I think it should be possible, though I can imagine the disappointment if you have been trying for years, lost a lot of money, and are still not there.

About the thread idea, there is one weak spot: if I found something that worked miraculously well, I am really not so sure I would share it in a public forum. Not because I don't want others to be successful as well, but because if a strategy gets too popular it may very well stop working. Ideally, everyone should find his or her own way of being successful.


Hello, FLechdrop.

I want people to have a look at the posted myfxbook, Turtle EUR; yes, the leverage is quite high 1:1000 but look at the history going back to May 25, 2016. My questions to you are:

1) Given the 2.80% monthly gain with a low 6.3% DD, would you have been satisfied with this solid return, when you first began your journey and the fxlosses you have incurred since?

2) Had you known about this strategy/signal/trading system, early on in your fxhistory, would you have said to yourselves, "Hmm, with the 1k, I have as disposable equity, today, I would be happy with 2.8%/mon. which will compound over years?"

The problem as I see it is "the bug", a type of greed melded in enticing risk which at first has us going after huge gains, followed by the loss, whereafter, it's no longer the gain but the recuperation of both the loss and the gain. In such psychology, we are always chasing the rabbit down the rabbit hole no matter where it leads. In terms of EA's even though the EA's have historical data, showing moderate/reasonable gains over time, we negate it at the very first loss and give up if there is a second although, historically speaking, the EA points to it's historical DD and asks for patience.

Just a Humble Traders" observation.

https://www.myfxbook.com/en/members/autotrade/turtle-eur/1644166



Regards,  :)
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Online FLechdrop

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2018, 08:34:09 PM »
FLechdrop, good to do a bit of brainstorming here.
Your point is good to discuss. What is reasonable regarding sharing systems? My initial thought for the thread is showing proof that system development and confirmation by live trading is worthwhile and implementation in real trading can be successful. Sharing EA's was not my initial thought.
It would be awesome to see what we can do for and with each other. More input on this is welcome. Sharing free EA's wouldn't indeed be smart for the reason you mention. But there are ways to build a robust portfolio together by combining well-diversified strategies. 

OK, that sounds better than how I interpreted it! Sorry if I misread you. Of course it is great if people do want to share some winning strategies, as donbon2 has been doing for instance, but for this thread the main goal should probably be to give us all some inspiration and motivation by showing it is actually possible to create such.

I do have numerous good looking backtests like the one you show, however I have become weary of trusting them before they have proven themselves live over a couple of months. And none of them has yet, although as always I hope I am onto something now...

Online FLechdrop

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2018, 08:44:00 PM »
Hello, FLechdrop.

I want people to have a look at the posted myfxbook, Turtle EUR; yes, the leverage is quite high 1:1000 but look at the history going back to May 25, 2016. My questions to you are:

1) Given the 2.80% monthly gain with a low 6.3% DD, would you have been satisfied with this solid return, when you first began your journey and the fxlosses you have incurred since?

2) Had you known about this strategy/signal/trading system, early on in your fxhistory, would you have said to yourselves, "Hmm, with the 1k, I have as disposable equity, today, I would be happy with 2.8%/mon. which will compound over years?"

The problem as I see it is "the bug", a type of greed melded in enticing risk which at first has us going after huge gains, followed by the loss, whereafter, it's no longer the gain but the recuperation of both the loss and the gain. In such psychology, we are always chasing the rabbit down the rabbit hole no matter where it leads. In terms of EA's even though the EA's have historical data, showing moderate/reasonable gains over time, we negate it at the very first loss and give up if there is a second although, historically speaking, the EA points to it's historical DD and asks for patience.

Just a Humble Traders" observation.

https://www.myfxbook.com/en/members/autotrade/turtle-eur/1644166

I have studied this account, in fact, and I think that, although he has done a good job at avoiding disaster so far, somehow, almost miraculously... the strategy does have a significant blow up risk, or at least a very big losses risk. It is based on significantly larger recovery trades being placed whenever a regular trade is at a loss of, I believe, 150 pips. With huge stop-losses for all trades. So statistically, it almost always goes right, at least for the pairs he is trading, but at some point I expect it will crash.

But yes, good point about the greed. And the answer is certainly no, for me. However, if this Turtle strategy were truly legit, you could just up the risk to get more return with still very acceptable DD. However again, I don't believe that is the case... You cannot expect this strategy to keep performing like this forever.

Offline fulltimetrader

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2018, 08:46:23 PM »
FLechdrop, good to do a bit of brainstorming here.
Your point is good to discuss. What is reasonable regarding sharing systems? My initial thought for the thread is showing proof that system development and confirmation by live trading is worthwhile and implementation in real trading can be successful. Sharing EA's was not my initial thought.
It would be awesome to see what we can do for and with each other. More input on this is welcome. Sharing free EA's wouldn't indeed be smart for the reason you mention. But there are ways to build a robust portfolio together by combining well-diversified strategies. 

OK, that sounds better than how I interpreted it! Sorry if I misread you. Of course it is great if people do want to share some winning strategies, as donbon2 has been doing for instance, but for this thread the main goal should probably be to give us all some inspiration and motivation by showing it is actually possible to create such.

I do have numerous good looking backtests like the one you show, however I have become weary of trusting them before they have proven themselves live over a couple of months. And none of them has yet, although as always I hope I am onto something now...

Exactly that, inspiration and motivation.

I am sure weary too. That's why I performed WFA testing, MC analyses. For what it is worth. Also compared forward trading with its backtest.
The trade idea is simple, based on price action solely, no indicators for entry or exit.
What can we do more?
Trade it until it runs out of optimisation.

Online FLechdrop

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2018, 08:49:10 PM »
OK, I have not yet looked into WFA testing and MC analyses... Perhaps I should.

One more thing we can do: experiment with different brokers and pick the right one for our strategy.

Offline grgr

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Re: Pants down
« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2018, 09:02:34 PM »
You should also posts the screenshots of myfxbooks in connection with myfxbook's links, especially the screenshot after the account blows up and before vendor delete it. That would definitely unmask the real truth about "profitable", "robust", etc. systems.
FOREX - the only one who is earning on this business is the broker. Biggest scam ever over the whole world. Most brokers don't even pass your trades to the market, because they simply know that everyone will lose, so they keep the losses for themselves.

 

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