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Author Topic: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??  (Read 1529 times)

Online reinerh

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FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« on: January 29, 2019, 11:34:32 PM »

we have fomc coming up tomorrow, and i sure expect a good move on this one.

the last 3 or 4 times were all duds, but this time i kinda expect a surprise. and if thats true then we should see a darn good reaction.

so i am curious what others think ??

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2019, 11:46:08 PM »

we have fomc coming up tomorrow, and i sure expect a good move on this one.

the last 3 or 4 times were all duds, but this time i kinda expect a surprise. and if thats true then we should see a darn good reaction.

so i am curious what others think ??


Reading the wires, I don't think much will come of this other than more confirmation on hold on interest rates "until future notice"; more data updates perhaps, now that the government is open and the number crunchers are at work. Perhaps a "noticeable", slowdown in the US economy may be revealed. Overall a non-event but one to take caution on open trades just the same, unless you specialize in trading the news. ;)

Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Online reinerh

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2019, 12:48:02 AM »
i think most all think like you humble = not expecting much.

and if thats the case we could see a very violent move, especially since the last 4 fomc events were a dud.

and yes you are correct = best having no open positions, especially with ea trading unless the strategy thrives on that, ala legend which opens often after the event when the pair is in motion.

i think there wont be a rate change announced tomorrow, but the surprise might be in the speech which follows in the outlook.

news are tricky to trade but i love it when its a good move.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 01:23:37 AM by reinerh »

Offline ExpatFX

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Offline Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2019, 07:05:47 PM »
i think most all think like you humble = not expecting much.

and if thats the case we could see a very violent move, especially since the last 4 fomc events were a dud.

and yes you are correct = best having no open positions, especially with ea trading unless the strategy thrives on that, ala legend which opens often after the event when the pair is in motion.

i think there wont be a rate change announced tomorrow, but the surprise might be in the speech which follows in the outlook.

news are tricky to trade but i love it when its a good move.

1402 ET - In the January policy statement, Fed officials said they would take a "patient" approach in evaluating interest rate increases, given global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures. Since the start of the year, officials have used the term "patient" to signal they are likely to refrain from raising rates until they get a better grasp on whether slowing global growth and financial market volatility have altered the US economic outlook. January's policy statement reinforces that central bank officials are taking a wait-and-see approach to raising rates. (sarah.chaney@wsj.com)


I found a golden (XAUUSD) opportunity and took it.  ;)


Regards,
HumbleTrader
« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 07:11:09 PM by Humble Trader's Fx »
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Online reinerh

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2019, 07:08:38 PM »
we have lift of ................

looks like it will be a good move for a change, one with legs.....................

initial push was not all that much, but the forward looking statement has yet to be announced at 2 30

my hunch was right, it was about time :)
« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 07:17:40 PM by reinerh »

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2019, 07:21:54 PM »
we have lift of ................

looks like it will be a good move for a change, one with legs.....................

initial push was not all that much, but the forward looking statement has yet to be announced at 2 30

my hunch was right, it was about time :)

EUR/USD, singing, Fly me to the moon!  ;D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hxibHJOE5E

Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Online reinerh

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2019, 07:26:28 PM »
todays eu move would have been perfect for impulse which i dont run anymore. but sure hope someday i can unleash that raskal again.

all 18 was bad for it, did a backtest just last week.

had some manual eu buys going, still in them, my big accounts finally looking up for a change.

thales also rode the train today.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/fsc2015/finbou-lmax-thales-1x/1537570
« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 07:47:33 PM by reinerh »

Offline FLechdrop

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2019, 07:52:37 PM »
I used to news trade this sort of thing manually on cTrader (seems to have less slippage), but can't always stay home for these things. Also quite nerve-wrecking (but exhilarating at the same time).

Online reinerh

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2019, 07:59:08 PM »
I used to news trade this sort of thing manually on cTrader (seems to have less slippage), but can't always stay home for these things. Also quite nerve-wrecking (but exhilarating at the same time).

the key is being able to read pa, and thales has that mastered. it took me a long time to get the hang of it, and i am still learning at every big news event.

today was also a prime example as to not being in positions prior to the news, since the outcome from a news event nobody can predict. and since the last 4 fomc were duds a good move was long overdue.

Offline FLechdrop

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2019, 09:28:48 PM »
Many ways to do it. You can have two positions open (hedged) with a SL above and below the current price. The trickiest thing is when to get out, especially if it is going to whipsaw.

Online reinerh

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2019, 09:57:56 PM »
Many ways to do it. You can have two positions open (hedged) with a SL above and below the current price. The trickiest thing is when to get out, especially if it is going to whipsaw.

try to learn pa, right after the release. tick by tick. after a while it will make sense to you. todays move was a classic good move, the other fomc moves would have lead to confusion. this move was the first in a long time which i traded eu.
uj would have been even better today, traditionally uj is best on fomc day but i expected eu to move better.

dont do stop orders, you will get slipped like crazy, always wait at least 30 seconds or so to enter, fast connection needed if mt 4.

Offline FLechdrop

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2019, 07:51:30 AM »
dont do stop orders, you will get slipped like crazy, always wait at least 30 seconds or so to enter, fast connection needed if mt 4.

I meant having two positions open before the event, and then closing the one it goes against by SL. You will get some slippage on that one no doubt, but hopefully make more profit on the other.

Offline FLechdrop

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2019, 08:19:47 AM »

Offline drunkfx

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Re: FOMC Jan 30 2019 any predictions ??
« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2019, 12:49:50 PM »
It was really surprise how Fed has basically succumbed to the market desires and demands. Now I don't know what the game plan is but keep my short EURUSD position from Tickmill, opened it at 1.15 level.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2019, 11:43:12 AM by drunkfx »

 

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