collapse

Author Topic: How long to keep your strategy running before you decide is not working anymore  (Read 11989 times)

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 1568
Actually, it depends on particular strategy. In general, trader should pay attention for the situation when the strategy starts to perform worse than it performed during backtesting and demo testing. There are not strict rules like "five losing trades in a row" .........

Yes that comparison is worth analysing. Optimisation and BT on past data has its drawbacks but we have little choice unless we can predict the future.

This type of analysis, actual or real vs backtest, is what NexusDash was developed for. See eg https://donnaforex.com/index.php?topic=21298.msg389358#new  and example in image below.
Information and product page - http://www.diyforexskills.com/forex-tools/




Offline Odysseia Capital

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 8
  • Unapproved Vendor
    • Odysseia Capital  - Ethic Trading Signals

Yes that comparison is worth analysing. Optimisation and BT on past data has its drawbacks but we have little choice unless we can predict the future.

This type of analysis, actual or real vs backtest, is what NexusDash was developed for. See eg https://donnaforex.com/index.php?topic=21298.msg389358#new  and example in image below.

Thanks for stepping in diyforexskills.

Nexus Dash has been developed by Odysseia Capital in partnership with diyforexskills as in-house tool to help us in our portfolio management decision process.

The aim is exactly to try to address the question if the decision to deploy a strategy to the real world is still deemed as valid, when part of the deployment decision was based in key performance indicators provided by the Backtest. With that objective in mind, certain limits of the Backtest are extracted and compared against the corresponding KPIs of real money account.

Then it's at the discretion of the user to decide how to use the corresponding results and consider a strategy should continue to run the strategy, change its weight in the portfolio, suspend it or cancel it all together. Nexus Dash doesn't provide a decision on that matter but makes the information transparent to the user to support him/her in the portfolio management decisions.


Offline Odysseia Capital

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 8
  • Unapproved Vendor
    • Odysseia Capital  - Ethic Trading Signals
Connected with the pre-deployment phase (not exactly the post-deployment phase as discussed in this thread), we are interested to learn about what elements influence the algo-traders using Expert Advisors to build up the necessary confidence level before commiting real money capital to automated strategies.

We hope not to be violating any policy from the forum by inviting the community to participate in a poll.

Participation is anonymous (we don't collect IPs) and we intend to share here the overall aggregated results. If there was already a previous poll covering exactly the same questions, we would be grateful if we can to be directed to it.

Participation takes only 2 minutes (1 or 2 questions) and is highly appreciated.

The poll can be accessed here:

https://surveyhero.com/c/4ff4ec11

« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 05:06:00 PM by Odysseia Capital »

Offline Umar

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 17
I think that you should wait for a very short period of time until you realize that you need to do something with your trading strategy. Several lose deals are more than enough for me to be alerted that I need to change something

Offline drunkfx

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 751
I think that you should wait for a very short period of time until you realize that you need to do something with your trading strategy. Several lose deals are more than enough for me to be alerted that I need to change something

What risk per trade do you allow (as % of equity) and what is max possible drawdown after you stop trading?

Online diyforexskills

  • Verified Vendor
  • Hero Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 1568
In trading we deal with facts/hard numbers and with psychology or sentiment.

So deciding on a level of DD before stopping a strategy is one way. For me a visual representation of what is happening has more weight on my decision-making.

I use an on-screen performance graph to shake me into action. (using the EA Controller just as a monitoring tool.)

So when performance dips below and stays below its 20 "period" SMA (see first image), I pull the plug on my live account (which I did some time ago) but leave the same strategy running on my demo account. Ready to jump back in on live if the graph on my demo account shows it to be save (still waiting after several months so a lot of losses avoided).

The second image shows a strategy that I am happy to be running on my live account now. (The MA, blue line, is a 20 "period" SMMA of closed profit).

So yes, it is the same info as say a %DD, but the visual impact for me is what makes me take action.
Information and product page - http://www.diyforexskills.com/forex-tools/




 

browse forum

* Recent Posts

GBPUSD by SpinnakerFx
[Today at 11:06:27 AM]


EURAUD by SpinnakerFx
[Today at 11:05:20 AM]


Re: EA Controller by diyforexskills
[Today at 08:15:47 AM]


Re: FX Autotrader Elite by diyforexskills
[Today at 07:37:40 AM]


EURAUD by SpinnakerFx
[Yesterday at 10:35:53 PM]


EURJPY by SpinnakerFx
[Yesterday at 10:06:37 PM]


USDJPY by SpinnakerFx
[Yesterday at 09:15:54 PM]


USDJPY by SpinnakerFx
[Yesterday at 09:13:06 PM]


Re: Financial stability before trading? by 2cuteEssence
[Yesterday at 06:59:53 PM]


Re: I am looking for a partner by Nuadaris
[Yesterday at 03:45:09 PM]