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Author Topic: FX Autotrader Elite  (Read 127093 times)

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #435 on: February 06, 2019, 12:33:24 AM »
I just want to make one final point that I think everyone understands now.

These EAs that we have been buying are built by developers who in most cases have never really been professional traders - they are retail based - think like retail traders and are restricted in how they approach things by that limitation.

while we are certainly not looking to reinvent the wheel - we are looking at something that they are not really aware of.

Also the time for making an EA putting up a 10 year backtest and selling it are over .. we are all aware that for the most part those EAs once they go on a real account head straight into DD.

it simply is time for a new approach and fresh thinking.

Stir the ship "'Mon Capitaine"; being able to read the stars in the darkness of night, will lead us to safety.   ;)


Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.


Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #436 on: March 25, 2019, 06:56:03 AM »
A new way of trading with the Autotrader

Have been working behind the scenes, having the EA modified as per some of the discussions above, and more importantly changing the approach to using the EA.

We end up having multiple sub-strategies each optimised to different volatility conditions over an 18 year period.

So instead of using the EA Controller to switch strategies on or off depending on profitability, we rely on the market dynamics to determine which strategy or strategies should be running at any one time.

This approach shows great promise but does require a lot of optimisation work. Will hopefully get some live trading under way with this new approach by June so we should know by end of year whether this is worth pursuing.

The image below shows the merged results for five sub-strategies based on a test period from 2010 and using fixed lot size. Current testing is being done on period from 2000 till 2019.
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #437 on: April 15, 2019, 06:09:01 AM »
Update on new Trading Strategy

Work is progressing on developing the MA crossover strategies within ATR ranges. The results for merging the strategies for five currency pairs is shown below. Using 99.9% tick data. Some further enhancements are possible for these and work continues on other currency pairs

The second image shows the approach to optimising these strategies over a 19 year period, this time for USDCAD; bringing one MA crossover into play one at a time. In all, four alternate entry MA crosses and one exit MA cross. Note how the Profit, PF, DD and %Profitable trades improves which each additional MA cross.
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #438 on: April 19, 2019, 05:22:36 AM »
Further Improvement

As noted in previous post, I have adopted a slightly different approach to the development of these strategies for three new pairs.

So now we have an even better merged performance curve as shown.

Work is now progressing on the other six pairs and will be redoing the initial five pairs with this new approach.

Then we will look at modelling the sixteen or so pairs (up to 60 set files) to maximise the Ret/DD ratio and best year on year performance and minimal stagnation with a view to offering a signal service from a portfolio of these strategies.
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #439 on: April 26, 2019, 07:19:59 AM »
Further Improvement

As noted in previous post, I have adopted a slightly different approach to the development of these strategies for three new pairs.

So now we have an even better merged performance curve as shown.

Work is now progressing on the other six pairs and will be redoing the initial five pairs with this new approach.

Then we will look at modelling the sixteen or so pairs (up to 60 set files) to maximise the Ret/DD ratio and best year on year performance and minimal stagnation with a view to offering a signal service from a portfolio of these strategies.

Have now redone the first of the currency pairs with the new approach to optimisation, and we have a great improvement - profit up three fold and PF up from 1.5 to 2.9 with a much smoother performance curve.
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #440 on: May 10, 2019, 01:31:34 PM »
Possible Portfolio

Have finished some 6 weeks of work to develop 57 set files/EAs across 16 currency pairs using the Autotrader.

Using Quant Analyser as portfolio modelling tool leads me to using 35 of these to run a portfolio, which on BT shows the results below.

1. It meets my KPIs for 100% pa return with < 20% DD (just 9%). In real trading I would allow for that return to be half as good and DD twice as big. That would still allow me to sleep at night.

2. The Ret/DD ratio (190), the Calmar ratio (10) and z-score (-1.5) are all excellent.

3. Return in 2019 to date is still on the lower side so we need to see how that develops over the coming months in forward testing; and the possible addition of two more strategies which did badly pre-2010 but in BT do really well from then on. All going well it could then be offered as a signal service. No marty, no grid and no scalping. Just a diversified portfolio with long term strategies tuned to market volatility conditions.
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #441 on: May 16, 2019, 12:26:34 PM »
Multi MA strategy, no ATR filtering

In the last few Posts I shared some results of using a multi-MA approach within defined ATR bands; resulting in having four set files for each currency pair.

But I also tested this concept without using any ATR filtering, and in the process developed a set file for AJ on the H4 timeframe. I have let this strategy run on demo (a $1 million demo account), using mini lots per trade. There is one Initial trade and up to 4 scale-ins for this strategy.

Since 1 March there have been three trading sequences (ie 3 Initial trades and each time four scale-ins have been triggered; in a nice Sell Buy Sell sequence closely following price movement.

There is always a worry when you optimise a strategy up to a recent period, in this case end 2018, from start 2000, that the strategy will tank as soon as you start forward testing. In this case, that certainly has not happened! Every trade has been a winner. On a normal $10K account, we would be up 30%, or 10% pm...... I should have done this testing on my live account!!
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #442 on: May 24, 2019, 06:46:57 AM »
Possible Portfolio

Have finished some 6 weeks of work to develop 57 set files/EAs across 16 currency pairs using the Autotrader.

Using Quant Analyser as portfolio modelling tool leads me to using 35 of these to run a portfolio, which on BT shows the results below.

1. It meets my KPIs for 100% pa return with < 20% DD (just 9%). In real trading I would allow for that return to be half as good and DD twice as big. That would still allow me to sleep at night.

2. The Ret/DD ratio (190), the Calmar ratio (10) and z-score (-1.5) are all excellent.

3. Return in 2019 to date is still on the lower side so we need to see how that develops over the coming months in forward testing; and the possible addition of two more strategies which did badly pre-2010 but in BT do really well from then on. All going well it could then be offered as a signal service. No marty, no grid and no scalping. Just a diversified portfolio with long term strategies tuned to market volatility conditions.

Forward testing on demo has now begun testing all 57 set files at this stage. We have called the portfolio Zephir and you can follow its fortunes on myfxbook as per below. The demo account is $1million but the lot sizing is based on being run on a $10K account. So % Returns and % DDs can be multiplied by 100 for a more realistic view of performance.

As you can see it is an active portfolio, ie many trades although they can be of a long duration. So swap rates will be a consideration in choosing the best broker, while spreads is not much of an issue given the largish TPs and SLs.
Information and product page - http://www.diyforexskills.com/forex-tools/




 

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