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Author Topic: FX Autotrader Elite  (Read 168044 times)

Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #465 on: September 19, 2019, 06:49:51 AM »
Flashback to FXAE Bollinger Band EA

As reported on the FXAE BB EA Set File thread back in July, only one of the three strategies developed as part of that BB series, the Revised strategy, 5716101 based on an ATR modulated BB setting, has been successful.

Trading began on 5 November 2018 and by today its performance is as shown. 86 trades, 81% winners, PF of 2.53 trading 0.1 lots.

Not bad for a simple BB strategy, albeit one where the BB Deviation is modulated by ATR. Just one of the many features available on the Autotrader.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #466 on: September 21, 2019, 07:40:51 AM »
A Lingering KISS

I have been working for a little while on making an Autotrader EA with a simple strategy using MA crossovers (KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid). Keeping the bulk of the variables constant and then using one or two variables for short term optimisation. Initially I thought I would have to re-optimise every month over the previous 2 months.

But after some false starts I seem to have hit upon a basic suite of settings with just one variable for optimisation. And even though we can do the monthly re-optimsation routine quite easily, it appears that in 2019 that may not be necessary.

The image shows the BT from 1 Jan to 30 Aug with the Jan Feb period having been used to optimise. So all of March through to August is OOS. Monthly re-optimisations can give a slight improvement but not worth the effort. At some stage the strategy will no longer work, but we can make hay while the sun shines. Hence the Lingering KISS title!  :)

I am now repeating the experiment for 2018 to see how reproducible this method and strategy is. The current strategy/settings do not work so we start by doing a multi-variable optimisation requiring 1250 passes over 15 hours.

In terms of volatility (ATR), 2018 is more volatile for EURUSD than 2019 (Daily ATR averages 80 in 2018 compared to 50 in 2019); which might explain the difference in performance. If that were so, we could develop separate set files for differing ATR ranges (say 20 to 60 and 60 to 100), run them both concurrently and let the market decide which one will be trading at any one time.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #467 on: October 11, 2019, 07:31:06 AM »
Reward to Risk trading - can we do better?

Trading with say a 2:1 reward to risk ratio is what the textbooks advise us to do. Makes sense mathematically but unfortunately market statistics often get in the way. Which is why so many automated, and manual, strategies based on that principle fail.

And so the temptation is to remove the SL and hope for a reversion to the mean. The basis of scalping and grid/marty type strategies. Profitable for a while until they crash.

But what if we did remove the SL, place some forms of protection while still allowing trades room to breathe, and continue trading and accumulating profit while some trades languish in an open DD? (Based on an idea from donbon2). We can do that with the Autotrader by utilising the re-entry feature so that we can have up to some specified number of open trades. This can get quite busy as shown in the second image.

The main point is in the first image where we can see the effect of having different exit strategies for losing trades. The 100 pip SL represents about a 1:1 reward to risk ratio, and is acceptable. But we can see how we can almost triple that performance by relying on a very long-term MACD exit in combination with a Close after 18 days.

« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 07:35:35 AM by diyforexskills »
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #468 on: October 20, 2019, 07:37:40 AM »
MACD Multiple Entry
(Folowing on from previous Post)

I now have three new set files based on this new approach using v57.03.19 of the Autotrader, optimised for entry conditions from 1Jan till end Sep 2019 with all other parameters having resulted from an optimisation from 1Jan 2016 till present. (And checking that a BT from 1 Jan 2016 using these new entry settings would still yield an acceptable return over the 3.9 years).

Entry is on MACD, filtered by ADX, buying low and selling high and using either fixed pip-based TP and BE or ATR-based ones. We can have up to 40 re-entry trades while the Initial trade is open and we also have marty type scale-ins at five -100 pip intervals. Trades do not have a fixed SL and instead are exited in one of several ways:
1. By TP or BE
2. By a longterm MACD exit
3. After a set number of bars (18 days)
4. On a basket CloseALL at $300 in loss (trading 0.01 lots)

Results with History Centre tick data are as shown for the AUDUSD. So even while open positions overall may be negative at times, we continue to close profitable trades.

I am going to run these on a $10K demo account and after a few weeks start copying (or trade directly) one of the pairs to a $1K live account. All going well I would start copying the other pairs adding another $1K to the account per pair.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #469 on: October 22, 2019, 10:44:47 AM »
Here you can see how the market moves to a Mozart sonata perfectly orchestrated by the FX Autotrader Elite running the new EURAUD set file (refer previous Post).

There are no individual SLs but plenty of safeguards for trades that fails to obey the the TP exits. When trading in this way, even open DDs can be tolerated. Only needs a few blinks. The video lasts 4 minutes but there is an intermission halfway for those needing to move on.

(The version of the Autotrader used for this set file will be released later this year.)

https://youtu.be/eweMiZfN3jo
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #470 on: October 26, 2019, 01:54:30 AM »
A Lingering KISS

I have been working for a little while on making an Autotrader EA with a simple strategy using MA crossovers (KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid). Keeping the bulk of the variables constant and then using one or two variables for short term optimisation. Initially I thought I would have to re-optimise every month over the previous 2 months.

But after some false starts I seem to have hit upon a basic suite of settings with just one variable for optimisation. And even though we can do the monthly re-optimsation routine quite easily, it appears that in 2019 that may not be necessary.

The image shows the BT from 1 Jan to 30 Aug with the Jan Feb period having been used to optimise. So all of March through to August is OOS. Monthly re-optimisations can give a slight improvement but not worth the effort. At some stage the strategy will no longer work, but we can make hay while the sun shines. Hence the Lingering KISS title!  :)

I am now repeating the experiment for 2018 to see how reproducible this method and strategy is. The current strategy/settings do not work so we start by doing a multi-variable optimisation requiring 1250 passes over 15 hours.

In terms of volatility (ATR), 2018 is more volatile for EURUSD than 2019 (Daily ATR averages 80 in 2018 compared to 50 in 2019); which might explain the difference in performance. If that were so, we could develop separate set files for differing ATR ranges (say 20 to 60 and 60 to 100), run them both concurrently and let the market decide which one will be trading at any one time.

Another good week for this KISS strategy which was optimised for JulAug 2019 and has been running since 10 Sep. Due for re-optimisation next weekend but if this performance keeps up, may not need to do so.
Looks like there will be $110 loss coming up from one of the open trades. That still leaves this strategy highly profitable till now.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #471 on: November 02, 2019, 02:15:35 AM »
MACD Multiple Entry
(Folowing on from previous Post)

I now have three new set files based on this new approach using v57.03.19 of the Autotrader, optimised for entry conditions from 1Jan till end Sep 2019 with all other parameters having resulted from an optimisation from 1Jan 2016 till present. (And checking that a BT from 1 Jan 2016 using these new entry settings would still yield an acceptable return over the 3.9 years).

Entry is on MACD, filtered by ADX, buying low and selling high and using either fixed pip-based TP and BE or ATR-based ones. We can have up to 40 re-entry trades while the Initial trade is open and we also have marty type scale-ins at five -100 pip intervals. Trades do not have a fixed SL and instead are exited in one of several ways:
1. By TP or BE
2. By a longterm MACD exit
3. After a set number of bars (18 days)
4. On a basket CloseALL at $300 in loss (trading 0.01 lots)

Results with History Centre tick data are as shown for the AUDUSD. So even while open positions overall may be negative at times, we continue to close profitable trades.

I am going to run these on a $10K demo account and after a few weeks start copying (or trade directly) one of the pairs to a $1K live account. All going well I would start copying the other pairs adding another $1K to the account per pair.

Great first two weeks
Things really hummed for this portfolio this week. We are now up 4.25% in just two weeks in line with the expected 10% pm based on BTs.

The portfolio is based on nine pairs trading just micro lots. Each pair requires about $1K account size. So far seven pairs have completed trades.

You can follow all the action from the MACD myfxbook link in my Sig. The intention is to offer this portfolio as a Signal Service in due course.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #472 on: November 11, 2019, 06:31:06 AM »
And after three weeks the MACD Multiple Entry portfolio is doing well, currently pulling out of an open DD which reached -3.5%.

So far 8 of the 11 currency pairs have closed trades, all in profit.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2019, 06:38:49 AM by diyforexskills »
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #473 on: November 14, 2019, 03:12:09 AM »
As mentioned before, the MACD strategies have no fixed SL but do have plenty of protection - A long-term dynamic MACD close, a CloseAll at $300 loss ( remember we can have up to 40 microlot trades open) and a Close after x bars. In the case of EURAUD that is set at 1400 M15 bars, so about 14 days.

And we had such a close last night when four of the EURAUD Buy trades were closed on this setting. As luck would have it, this occurred a little before we had a weak Aussie employment report, which sent the price higher!  Not something we can optimise for, again highlighting how random the market moves can be and how that effects performance.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #474 on: November 21, 2019, 07:09:35 AM »
MACD Portfolio Update

We are struggling a bit under current market conditions, but well in profit. The portfolio is trading 11 pairs and currently we have 97 open trades, all 0.01 lots. Margin level is at 1050%, so quite safe.

We are looking for a 100% pa return (based on BTs) and so at around 6.4% of closed profit for past 4 weeks we are more or less on track.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #475 on: November 23, 2019, 12:06:38 AM »
MACD Portfolio - time for some harvesting

A nice finish to the week - equity-wise we are now 10% up and we have secured $665 in profit.

We currently have 111 open orders with only 8 of them in loss. So on Monday I will do some harvesting; ie close the large negative trades and a series of positive trades which are close to their TP levels looking for say an overall net gain of $20 or so.

In the future my intention is to add the Close Minus by Plus EA https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/2825#!tab=tab_p_overview , to automate this process. But first I want to monitor things for a while, with the occasional manual action, in order to decide what might be the best settings for that EA. ie at what level in loss, max number of trades to use to offset the loss, and what minimum net profit level to aim for.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #476 on: November 25, 2019, 01:54:28 AM »
MACD Portfolio - time for some harvesting

A nice finish to the week - equity-wise we are now 10% up and we have secured $665 in profit.

We currently have 111 open orders with only 8 of them in loss. So on Monday I will do some harvesting; ie close the large negative trades and a series of positive trades which are close to their TP levels looking for say an overall net gain of $20 or so.

In the future my intention is to add the Close Minus by Plus EA https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/2825#!tab=tab_p_overview , to automate this process. But first I want to monitor things for a while, with the occasional manual action, in order to decide what might be the best settings for that EA. ie at what level in loss, max number of trades to use to offset the loss, and what minimum net profit level to aim for.

The harvesting is done and the USDCAD is now all clear to start a new sequence. And several EU, GU and EA winning trades were closed to offset the losses from USDCAD. For a net gain of some $15. So now we have only 88 open orders with just three losing CADJPY trades to keep an eye on. All the others are in profit.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #477 on: November 29, 2019, 01:25:13 AM »
If you have been wanting to buy one of my products, now is a good time to do so.

Half price sale now on till next Friday. The Order links reflect this sale price.

Just go to the link in my Signature below for descriptions and User Guides and order any or all of the FX Autotrader Elite, the DIY Trade Manager Plus, the EA Controller (both versions) and the Magic Wand.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #478 on: December 11, 2019, 10:05:15 PM »
AutoTrader with Exit Edge

With the latest version of the Autotrader, we can now access the Exit Edge indicator (https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/38568 ); with a couple of enhancements.

1. Multitimeframe setting
2. Specify minimum pip distance for exits in profit
3. These distances can be positive or negative ( meaning that when set as negative number, exits could be triggered when in loss for cases where a trade might never recover to profit so you just want to exit at the best possible.

I now have several strategies running on the MACD portfolio using the EE. Seems to work best with the Yen pairs but I have now also redone the NZDUSD pair as shown in image.

The MACD portfolio as a whole is doing well; And the Zephir portfolio appears to be pulling out of its DD. As per links in the Sig.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2019, 10:07:27 PM by diyforexskills »
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #479 on: December 14, 2019, 07:11:52 AM »
Another good week for this KISS strategy which was optimised for JulAug 2019 and has been running since 10 Sep. Due for re-optimisation next weekend but if this performance keeps up, may not need to do so.
Looks like there will be $110 loss coming up from one of the open trades. That still leaves this strategy highly profitable till now.

That was back on 26 October. But by now, this strategy is failing and needs to be re-optimised (of course we had the UK election effect on Friday but apart from that performance was obviously lagging); which I will do for the period October to mid December, so 2.5 months. And then let it run again until it starts failing again.
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