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Author Topic: FX Autotrader Elite  (Read 181099 times)

Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #480 on: December 16, 2019, 07:55:34 AM »
Another good week for this KISS strategy which was optimised for JulAug 2019 and has been running since 10 Sep. Due for re-optimisation next weekend but if this performance keeps up, may not need to do so.
Looks like there will be $110 loss coming up from one of the open trades. That still leaves this strategy highly profitable till now.

That was back on 26 October. But by now, this strategy is failing and needs to be re-optimised (of course we had the UK election effect on Friday but apart from that performance was obviously lagging); which I will do for the period October to mid December, so 2.5 months. And then let it run again until it starts failing again.

Since the first optimisation for this KISS strategy was JulAug, and I ran the forward test from Sep to mid-Dec, I did the re-optimisation for that same period so that it is now optimised over the last available data; and no OOS sample period of course.

The results:

1. The actual forward test on demo from Sep to mid-Dec was far, far better than the BT over that same period!!!

2. In the re-optimisation, I have added an ADX filter which makes a huge improvement to both the BT and the re-optimization BT.

The re-optimised set file is now running on the forward test after manually closing the 4 trades of the original set file at a loss of around $200. So let's see how long this new set file remains profitable.
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #481 on: December 19, 2019, 12:25:54 AM »
Re-Optimised KISS Strategy and Exit Edge version

The re-optimised set file has had 100% winners (27) so far and is slowly recovering the lost ground from the DD.

I have also applied this strategy to the new Autotrader with the Exit Edge feature and started trading that yesterday. Two wins so far. Based on BTs, this version shows twice the profit and with a smaller DD.

These optimisations were done over Sep to Dec, a time during which the EURUSD exhibited very small Daily ranges. So if we get back to more normal conditions next year, we may have to re-optimise again in say Feb. Let's see. All TP, SL and BEs are ATR-based so the strategies may last a bit longer even as market volatility picks up.

(The purpose of this tests is to see whether we can keep a strategy profitable by frequent re-optimising over short (most recent) periods. Optimising a simple strategy over short periods is fast and easy so not a big burden. With the Zephir strategy on the other hand, I optimised over 19 year periods using 4 alternate entry conditions and four different ATR zones (an exhausting task) hoping to "never" have to re-optimise again. The jury is still out - seems to work for at least four pairs but not for others. With the MACD portfolio, I have adopted a middle ground, optimising over 10 months and expecting to re-optimise six monthly).
« Last Edit: December 19, 2019, 12:29:18 AM by diyforexskills »
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #482 on: December 31, 2019, 06:04:17 AM »
Re-Optimised KISS Strategy and Exit Edge version

The re-optimised set file has had 100% winners (27) so far and is slowly recovering the lost ground from the DD.

I have also applied this strategy to the new Autotrader with the Exit Edge feature and started trading that yesterday. Two wins so far. Based on BTs, this version shows twice the profit and with a smaller DD.

These optimisations were done over Sep to Dec, a time during which the EURUSD exhibited very small Daily ranges. So if we get back to more normal conditions next year, we may have to re-optimise again in say Feb. Let's see. All TP, SL and BEs are ATR-based so the strategies may last a bit longer even as market volatility picks up.

(The purpose of this tests is to see whether we can keep a strategy profitable by frequent re-optimising over short (most recent) periods. Optimising a simple strategy over short periods is fast and easy so not a big burden. With the Zephir strategy on the other hand, I optimised over 19 year periods using 4 alternate entry conditions and four different ATR zones (an exhausting task) hoping to "never" have to re-optimise again. The jury is still out - seems to work for at least four pairs but not for others. With the MACD portfolio, I have adopted a middle ground, optimising over 10 months and expecting to re-optimise six monthly).

Re-optimised set file was doing OK, apart from around Christmas, specifically 27 Dec - always best to switch off before the silly season; another reminder.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #483 on: January 07, 2020, 06:42:11 AM »
MACD Portfolio - time for some harvesting

A nice finish to the week - equity-wise we are now 10% up and we have secured $665 in profit.

We currently have 111 open orders with only 8 of them in loss. So on Monday I will do some harvesting; ie close the large negative trades and a series of positive trades which are close to their TP levels looking for say an overall net gain of $20 or so.

In the future my intention is to add the Close Minus by Plus EA https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/2825#!tab=tab_p_overview , to automate this process. But first I want to monitor things for a while, with the occasional manual action, in order to decide what might be the best settings for that EA. ie at what level in loss, max number of trades to use to offset the loss, and what minimum net profit level to aim for.

The harvesting is done and the USDCAD is now all clear to start a new sequence. And several EU, GU and EA winning trades were closed to offset the losses from USDCAD. For a net gain of some $15. So now we have only 88 open orders with just three losing CADJPY trades to keep an eye on. All the others are in profit.

MACD Portfolio Update

This portfolio took a 10% hit with the UK election results (GJ, GU and EJ). And has been struggling over the Christmas period after a spectacular start in October. Have now implemented the CloseMinusbyPlus EA to deal with the portfolio as a whole in an attempt to deliver a smoother profit curve; and added a HedgeBot EA so that a currency pair is hedged when it reaches a $200 DD rather than just doing a CloseAll at -$300 as we did in December for GU, GJ and EJ. When a hedge is put in place, I will deal with it manually in order to minimise any losses.

The settings for CloseMinusbyPlus is a bit of trial and error - currently set to close a losing trade at -$8 using a maximum of 4 profitable trades. All trades are 0.01 lot, so -$8 is about 80 pips in loss. We usually have around 100 open positions at any one time but there will be times when there are not enough profitable trades to offset an $8 losing trade. In which case the losing trade may rebound into profit or end up being closed after 12 days or closed by the longterm MACD exit.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #484 on: January 09, 2020, 06:10:18 AM »
Re-Optimised KISS Strategy and Exit Edge version

The re-optimised set file has had 100% winners (27) so far and is slowly recovering the lost ground from the DD.

I have also applied this strategy to the new Autotrader with the Exit Edge feature and started trading that yesterday. Two wins so far. Based on BTs, this version shows twice the profit and with a smaller DD.

These optimisations were done over Sep to Dec, a time during which the EURUSD exhibited very small Daily ranges. So if we get back to more normal conditions next year, we may have to re-optimise again in say Feb. Let's see. All TP, SL and BEs are ATR-based so the strategies may last a bit longer even as market volatility picks up.

(The purpose of this tests is to see whether we can keep a strategy profitable by frequent re-optimising over short (most recent) periods. Optimising a simple strategy over short periods is fast and easy so not a big burden. With the Zephir strategy on the other hand, I optimised over 19 year periods using 4 alternate entry conditions and four different ATR zones (an exhausting task) hoping to "never" have to re-optimise again. The jury is still out - seems to work for at least four pairs but not for others. With the MACD portfolio, I have adopted a middle ground, optimising over 10 months and expecting to re-optimise six monthly).

Re-optimised set file was doing OK, apart from around Christmas, specifically 27 Dec - always best to switch off before the silly season; another reminder.

KISS (re-optimised) strategy still struggling


The closed profits curve is still below its SMMA 20 even after its re-optimisation and after the Christmas hiccup, and hence we would still not be trading this strategy again on live. If the DD continues, we will have to try another re-optimisation or conclude that this type of strategy is just not robust enough and the successful period of its operation was just fortuitous.
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Offline felipebr

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #485 on: January 10, 2020, 04:07:27 PM »
Hi good evening! Which one of your products are you using for Kiss and MACD portfolio? Would you provide these strategies with your EA?


Thank you
Regards

Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #486 on: January 11, 2020, 02:04:19 AM »
Hi good evening! Which one of your products are you using for Kiss and MACD portfolio? Would you provide these strategies with your EA?


Thank you
Regards

Hi Felipebr. For KISS it is just the FX Autotrader Elite (v57.03.18). For the MACD portfolio as it is now being run I am using the FXAE (v57.03.25), a HedgeBot EA (new), and two  products from the mql5 MarketPlace.
1. The Exit Edge indicator with the settings built into the FXAE, https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/38568 , $88,  and

2. The CloseMinusbyPlus EA which operates by itself on the whole portfolio https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/2825# , $30.

Yes, I am always happy to provide set files/strategies but on a custom basis since I have moved away from mass marketing. So if you or anyone wants to come to some arrangement, pls PM me.

I also plan to start a live trading account with the six best strategies of the MACD portfolio next month and considering whether to offer that as a signal via my association with Odysseia Capital https://odysseiacapital.com/ depending on the level of interest.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 06:18:42 AM by diyforexskills »
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #487 on: January 18, 2020, 01:12:54 AM »
MACD Portfolio - time for some harvesting

A nice finish to the week - equity-wise we are now 10% up and we have secured $665 in profit.

We currently have 111 open orders with only 8 of them in loss. So on Monday I will do some harvesting; ie close the large negative trades and a series of positive trades which are close to their TP levels looking for say an overall net gain of $20 or so.

In the future my intention is to add the Close Minus by Plus EA https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/2825#!tab=tab_p_overview , to automate this process. But first I want to monitor things for a while, with the occasional manual action, in order to decide what might be the best settings for that EA. ie at what level in loss, max number of trades to use to offset the loss, and what minimum net profit level to aim for.

The harvesting is done and the USDCAD is now all clear to start a new sequence. And several EU, GU and EA winning trades were closed to offset the losses from USDCAD. For a net gain of some $15. So now we have only 88 open orders with just three losing CADJPY trades to keep an eye on. All the others are in profit.

MACD Portfolio Update

This portfolio took a 10% hit with the UK election results (GJ, GU and EJ). And has been struggling over the Christmas period after a spectacular start in October. Have now implemented the CloseMinusbyPlus EA to deal with the portfolio as a whole in an attempt to deliver a smoother profit curve; and added a HedgeBot EA so that a currency pair is hedged when it reaches a $200 DD rather than just doing a CloseAll at -$300 as we did in December for GU, GJ and EJ. When a hedge is put in place, I will deal with it manually in order to minimise any losses.

The settings for CloseMinusbyPlus is a bit of trial and error - currently set to close a losing trade at -$8 using a maximum of 4 profitable trades. All trades are 0.01 lot, so -$8 is about 80 pips in loss. We usually have around 100 open positions at any one time but there will be times when there are not enough profitable trades to offset an $8 losing trade. In which case the losing trade may rebound into profit or end up being closed after 12 days or closed by the longterm MACD exit.

We have tested a dozen currency pairs in this Portfolio and after 89 days of trading, including over the silly season, there are six pairs that I want to take forward into live testing.

Their performance over this period is shown in the image. The % returns are based on a $10K account but with only six pairs, a $5K account should suffice.

The performance details for all the pairs tested can be examined via the myfxbook link
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #488 on: January 23, 2020, 04:21:41 AM »
MACD Selected for Live Trading

Finally a bit of action in the markets yesterday. Performance of the six pairs chosen for live trading next month is shown in image. % numbers are for a $10K account but I plan to trade these six on a $4K account, so % wise the performance would be doubled.

I have made a minor adjustment to the main CloseMinusbyPlus EA settings so that it will now look for losing trades of -$12 or worse rather than -$8. The -$8 setting resulted in using up too many profitable trades which could have gone on to larger profits; and many trades that go to -$8 often retrace over time anyway so better not to close them in loss too early.

I have left the currency specific CMP EA settings as they are; take effect at -$8 and use max of two positive trades from same pair to close at net $2 profit. Had a few of those instances overnight.

The HedgeBot EA will be modified so that if price retraces, the hedge will be closed when the loss of the main trades reaches a user-specified lower loss value. I currently do that manually. But I have also set the hedge to be triggered at -$300 instead of the current -$200 so overall we should only see a hedge/lock position rarely. So hedge would be triggered at -$300 (typically from 20 or so trades ) and if price then reverses again the hedge would be closed out in loss at -$200 from whatever main trades are still open).

Of course we hope that price will move in the direction of the hedge for a while so that it can successively close out losing trades in net profit. Each time a main trade is closed by the hedge the next hedge will be of smaller lot size. Or if the loss from main trades has become less than -$300, then no hedge will be opened and trades may just move back into positive territory and be closed naturally.
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #489 on: January 25, 2020, 01:06:43 AM »
MACD Selected for Live Trading

Finally a bit of action in the markets yesterday. Performance of the six pairs chosen for live trading next month is shown in image. % numbers are for a $10K account but I plan to trade these six on a $4K account, so % wise the performance would be doubled.

I have made a minor adjustment to the main CloseMinusbyPlus EA settings so that it will now look for losing trades of -$12 or worse rather than -$8. The -$8 setting resulted in using up too many profitable trades which could have gone on to larger profits; and many trades that go to -$8 often retrace over time anyway so better not to close them in loss too early.

I have left the currency specific CMP EA settings as they are; take effect at -$8 and use max of two positive trades from same pair to close at net $2 profit. Had a few of those instances overnight.

The HedgeBot EA will be modified so that if price retraces, the hedge will be closed when the loss of the main trades reaches a user-specified lower loss value. I currently do that manually. But I have also set the hedge to be triggered at -$300 instead of the current -$200 so overall we should only see a hedge/lock position rarely. So hedge would be triggered at -$300 (typically from 20 or so trades ) and if price then reverses again the hedge would be closed out in loss at -$200 from whatever main trades are still open).

Of course we hope that price will move in the direction of the hedge for a while so that it can successively close out losing trades in net profit. Each time a main trade is closed by the hedge the next hedge will be of smaller lot size. Or if the loss from main trades has become less than -$300, then no hedge will be opened and trades may just move back into positive territory and be closed naturally.

Being conservative on Hedging

As mentioned we now have a Hedge/Lock in place for when a currency pair goes into an open DD. But in order to test this new HedgeBot EA I triggered it when 20 or so UJ Sell trades were about $150 in loss in total. That worked initially when the the Bot was able to close two losing trades for a net profit. But then price reversed again and it became a bit of a struggle. I also had the main CloseMinusbyPlus set at a low figure, -$8, for individual trades. Now set to -$12.

To cut a long story short, if we had left the UJ trades to their own strategy, and had set HedgeBot to only be triggered at -$300 as it is set now, then we would have lost only some $40 (largely swap costs) from this set upon its normal closure. Instead the combination of the HedgeBot and CMP intervention at their low values, has resulted in an additional loss of nearly $200.

So, in the more ranging market conditions like we have now, it does seem better to let trades be governed by their own strategy rather than managing too early with additional measures - in this case Hedgebot and CMP.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2020, 01:10:00 AM by diyforexskills »
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #490 on: February 02, 2020, 07:31:19 AM »
The MACD portfolio has and is taking a big hit caused by the market reaction to the corona virus - badly affecting the AUD and hence EURAUD and AUDUSD.

So it's back to the drawing board. Not the entry strategies themselves but the management of them individually and as a portfolio using the CloseMinusbyPlus and HedgeBot EAs.

With the help of a couple of other traders, we will start to run three alternative management strategies on Monday week to see which one can better handle these types of events.

On a more pleasing note, the EU strategy handled the big surge on Friday very nicely (closing many profitable and some losing positions) and we should finish up with over $250 profit from that, partially offsetting the other losses.
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #491 on: February 05, 2020, 09:36:50 AM »
One of the third party EAs I use in the MACD portfolio is the CloseMinusbyPlus EA.

It normally sells for $50 but is currently showing at $10 for anyone interested. A useful tool, and no, I am not in any way affiliated with them so no benefit from sales to me. Just seems a great deal for anyone interested.

https://www.expforex.com/shop/202/desc/exp-close-minus-by-plus

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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #492 on: February 08, 2020, 01:15:15 AM »
MACD portfolio - phase 1 testing closed

I closed all trades just before markets closed for the weekend in readiness for Phase 2 testing commencing on Monday.

Even though AU and EA finished in loss, I am still including these two in the tests going forward, along with EU, UJ, USDCAD and CADJPY. With some adjustments made to all of them.

The performance of these six pairs is shown below. Trading on $10K whereas we will be trading them on $5K in Phase 2 testing.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 01:17:08 AM by diyforexskills »
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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #493 on: February 10, 2020, 07:03:51 AM »
MACD Phase Two Testing Underway

I have started the testing with three tests with links below (test 4 is the same as test 1 but with CMP over the whole portfolio. I am hoping my colleague can start test 1 soon in which all six strategies operate individually each with their CloseAll and without CloseMinusbyPlus (CMP).

All tests have a full closure when open DD falls to -$1000, using the free Account Protector https://www.earnforex.com/metatrader-expert-advisors/Account-Protector/  In my view, and from experience with Phase 1 testing, it is better to take a hit and move on, then try to rescue a situation which has gotten out of control. $1000 would represent a 20% loss on the $5K accounts we are trading. And if these forward tests do anywhere near as well as the 2019 BTs, we would be making $1000 a month in any case.   :)

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/macd-test2/4597612  (test 1 with CloseAll replaced by HedgeBot at same open DD)

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/macd-test-3/4604199  (test 1 with CloseAll replaced by HedgeBot working with CMP to close losing trades with $100 net profit; and CMP over whole portfolio)

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/macd-test-4/4597549 (test 1 with CMP over whole portfolio)

I will repeat these links on each Post since we can have only two widgets in Sig. Plenty of action already underway; and though all three are the same type of account with ICM, they currently show some slightly different entries.
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Online diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #494 on: February 11, 2020, 03:36:58 AM »
And the early winner is...

Test 3. First stats shown in image. The EURAUD trades we closed with CloseMinusbyPlus EA - 4 losing trades closed with 12 profitable ones for a net gain of $31.

Having completed the most trades , 41 with the other two some 10 to 20 less,.Forgot to mention that Test 3 strategies also use Exit Edge for EA, UJ and CADJ; the other tests do not.

And looks like Test 1 will start soon; having a different start date will also lead to some differences early on but should not have any affect over the long term comparison.

(Will have to do the fiddly bit on myfxbook for Verification of trading accounts)


https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/macd-test2/4597612  (test 1 with CloseAll replaced by HedgeBot at same open DD)

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/macd-test-3/4604199  (test 1 with CloseAll replaced by HedgeBot working with CMP to close losing trades with $100 net profit; and CMP over whole portfolio)

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/macd-test-4/4597549 (test 1 with CMP over whole portfolio)
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 03:38:43 AM by diyforexskills »
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