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Author Topic: FX Autotrader Elite  (Read 157197 times)

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #495 on: February 13, 2020, 03:23:52 AM »
An Early Test

Looks like EU trades will reach their $350 open DD soon (currently at -$320); so we will have an early test as to whether it is better to do a CloseAll (Test 4), or let the HedgeBot do its thing (Tests 2 and 3 each with a slightly different approach to hedging).

I can't get the myfxbook links to work, so here are the FXBlue links.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com


Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #496 on: February 16, 2020, 01:07:26 AM »
Differences in Portfolio Management Clearly Showing

The EU did keep falling and so we have booked our first CloseAll at -$350 (taken the loss) in Test 4.

But in Tests 2 and 3 we have hedged.

The Hedge in Test 2 will stay until the open DD for EA main trades has recovered to -$150 open DD and hopefully price will continue that correction so that the remaining trades can be closed at profit or smaller loss.

The Hedge in Test 3 will be closed, and a new one opened, when the Hedge can close the largest losing main trade (around -$20) with a net profit of $100. Equity will then stay the same but Balance will be up by the $100 and open DD down by the $100. I am trying to get the HedgeBot modified so that the Hedge will close $100 worth of losing trade (probably 5 to 6) when the Hedge reaches $100 in profit. Then Equity and Balance will remain unchanged but we have a quicker way of getting rid of losing trades, and hence a quicker recovery.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 01:24:04 AM by diyforexskills »
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #497 on: February 19, 2020, 12:32:00 AM »

The Hedge in Test 3 will be closed, and a new one opened, when the Hedge can close the largest losing main trade (around -$20) with a net profit of $100. Equity will then stay the same but Balance will be up by the $100 and open DD down by the $100. I am trying to get the HedgeBot modified so that the Hedge will close $100 worth of losing trade (probably 5 to 6) when the Hedge reaches $100 in profit. Then Equity and Balance will remain unchanged but we have a quicker way of getting rid of losing trades, and hence a quicker recovery.

So we had such a close last night, as per image; this close relies on the use of the CMP EA with which we can only close the largest losing trade; I have asked the developer to change that to enable multiple trade closures and he said he will think about it. I am still also waiting for the HedgeBot modification because I really do want to close more losing trades with the Hedge. In the interim, I have manually closed another 4 losing trades totaling almost $100 so have achieved what I want to do going forward. If EU keeps falling we should have another Hedge close soon.

(My reason for wanting to close more than one losing trade with the hedge is that I want to keep open DD to a minimum so as not to get hit with a CloseAll at -$1000 open DD for the portfolio as a whole.)

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com


Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #498 on: February 20, 2020, 04:46:04 AM »
Looks like traders have decided how to deal with corona virus. Finally some action.

Test 2 ( Hedge and keep in place), hit the $1000 open DD and is now the worst performer with a 20% DD.

Test 4 (which has a CloseAll rather than a Hedge for each pair and a CMP for the portfolio as a whole), is now leading the pack.

Test 3 (my preferred approach) is not too far behind the leader. We have had several hedge closures on both EU and AU and I have manually closed losing trades against the $100 profit made from Hedge closures. (Still no word from the developer).

It would have been nice if all Tests were in profit to start us off, but that really would not have proved much; since the strategies are optimised for 2019 market conditions and then it would have meant that 2020 market conditions are the same as 2019.

Better to have a reality test early on to see how the strategies/systems cope with different market conditions and see if they can weather the storm and not tank. So far so good. I can live with a 20% DD.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com


Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #499 on: February 22, 2020, 01:05:23 AM »
Jostling for Position in Comeback

Test 4 is still the leader and reducing its DD while Test 2 is now not far behind having had a major win with EURAUD.

I have mentioned the Basket CloseAll for SL a few times, but forgot to mention that the strategies also have a Basket CloseAll for TP, varying from $200 to $400 for the pairs.

In the case of EURAUD the Basket CloseAll TP is at $400 and this was achieved yesterday in Test 2 (remember that Test 2 had a portfolio closeall at $1000 DD a few days earlier; so much of that has now been recovered).

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4

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http://www.diyforexskills.com


Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #500 on: February 23, 2020, 06:21:44 AM »
Close Minus by Plus in Autotrader

We are using the Close Minus by Plus (CMP) EA in each of the three Tests; one copy for the portfolio as a whole and one version associated with the use of the HedgeBot.

But we also have the CMP feature built into the Autotrader itself so that it operates separately for each strategy. The image below shows how this works. We can see 4 Sell trades which went into DD but were closed at net profit in 4 separate instances by profitable Buy trades.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #501 on: February 24, 2020, 05:12:07 AM »
Comparing Back Test on Forward Testing

We have two weeks of forward testing on which we can now also back test. Doing that for the EU strategy is encouraging in that we get a reasonable agreement.

The forward testing differs only in that it is subject to to the CloseMinusbyPlus actions from the portfolio as a whole (Test 4) whereas the BT is of course not affected by that. But that has not been a huge impact especially since the EU strategy also has the built-in CMP feature in the Autotrader itself.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 09:14:53 AM by diyforexskills »
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #502 on: February 25, 2020, 04:36:10 AM »
Almost Recovered

Test 4 is almost back to break even; while Test 3 is lagging far behind. So at this stage the simplest system which takes its losses when they are due rather than hedge/try to recover, seems to be the way to go. But let's see how it looks after three months.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4
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http://www.diyforexskills.com


Offline Philtup

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« Reply #503 on: February 25, 2020, 12:08:19 PM »
I had alike position. Durable thinking on how to get out of the water. Comrade advised one solution, only I was scared so sharp  turn everything, that so long saved up. I decided for now wait a while, as it turn . What can I tell? Time heals. The author advise not hang his head. Whole life ahead.

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #504 on: February 28, 2020, 02:27:53 AM »
Balance is back in the black, Test 4

Test 4 is proving to be the best portfolio approach with Balance now in profit but needing equity to do likewise.

Test 2 has had another "$1000" portfolio close all; except that I now realise that with the Account Protector EA, you have to reset the trigger conditions each time the setting has been triggered. So we had a $1260 portfolio close in this case when I realised what was happening.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com


Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #505 on: February 28, 2020, 05:11:19 AM »
Balance is back in the black, Test 4

Test 4 is proving to be the best portfolio approach with Balance now in profit but needing equity to do likewise.

Test 2 has had another "$1000" portfolio close all; except that I now realise that with the Account Protector EA, you have to reset the trigger conditions each time the setting has been triggered. So we had a $1260 portfolio close in this case when I realised what was happening.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4

AUDUSD

We will also keep a close watch on AUDUSD which has been the worst performer in all three Tests to date. But worst is still only around 10%DD on the $5K account so it may turn round to redeem itself.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #506 on: February 29, 2020, 12:41:16 AM »
Results after first Three Weeks

Test 4 is still the best and currently close to break even. Since the BT has guaranteed me at least $1K pm, it should be an exciting week next week!   :)  Taking me well on the way to buying that Lamborghini and super yacht.

Test 2 had its second portfolio close - this time $1200 loss since I did not have the Account Protector activated for the cut-off at -$1000. But with the markets raging, it regained some $500 of that loss within the day!! And so still ahead of Test 3.

This leads me to making a change to Test 2 portfolio management. So now instead of the portfolio close at -$1000, I am going to have two portfolio closes. One at -$200 and one at +$400; all the rest stays the same.

Rationale is that it seems that if things are going south, then it's best to wipe the slate clean and start afresh with a new sequence of trading. Let's see how that goes.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4
Information, rebates and products -
http://www.diyforexskills.com


Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #507 on: March 01, 2020, 07:31:12 AM »
Re-Optimised KISS Strategy and Exit Edge version

The re-optimised set file has had 100% winners (27) so far and is slowly recovering the lost ground from the DD.

I have also applied this strategy to the new Autotrader with the Exit Edge feature and started trading that yesterday. Two wins so far. Based on BTs, this version shows twice the profit and with a smaller DD.

These optimisations were done over Sep to Dec, a time during which the EURUSD exhibited very small Daily ranges. So if we get back to more normal conditions next year, we may have to re-optimise again in say Feb. Let's see. All TP, SL and BEs are ATR-based so the strategies may last a bit longer even as market volatility picks up.

(The purpose of this tests is to see whether we can keep a strategy profitable by frequent re-optimising over short (most recent) periods. Optimising a simple strategy over short periods is fast and easy so not a big burden. With the Zephir strategy on the other hand, I optimised over 19 year periods using 4 alternate entry conditions and four different ATR zones (an exhausting task) hoping to "never" have to re-optimise again. The jury is still out - seems to work for at least four pairs but not for others. With the MACD portfolio, I have adopted a middle ground, optimising over 10 months and expecting to re-optimise six monthly).

Re-optimised set file was doing OK, apart from around Christmas, specifically 27 Dec - always best to switch off before the silly season; another reminder.

KISS (re-optimised) strategy still struggling


The closed profits curve is still below its SMMA 20 even after its re-optimisation and after the Christmas hiccup, and hence we would still not be trading this strategy again on live. If the DD continues, we will have to try another re-optimisation or conclude that this type of strategy is just not robust enough and the successful period of its operation was just fortuitous.

Recovery under way

The re-optimised KISS strategy seems to be pulling out its DD now so we will let it run for a little longer.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #508 on: March 02, 2020, 03:05:55 AM »
HedgeBot Trades

In Tests 2 and 3 we are using the Hedgebot EA in place of the CloseAll at -$300. In Test 2 by itself and in Test 3 in conjunction with the CMP EA so that we successively close losing trades when the hedge goes into profit.

The difficulty with hedging is that at some point we need to close the hedge, and we would like to do that when it is in profit; but with market reversals that is not always possible. And we then lose badly with the hedge.

So it is pleasing to see that at least to date, the hedges are overwhelmingly being closed in profit, as per image.

Nevertheless, Test 4 which uses the CloseAll rather than the Hedge, is still the best performer.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #509 on: March 03, 2020, 07:16:00 AM »
Now running Four Tests

Each Test has a portfolio close at -$1000

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2 - Test 2; the CloseAll for each strategy is replaced with a Hedge trade
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3 - Test 3; the CloseAll for each strategy is replaced with a Hedge trade and each Hedge situation is controlled by the CMP EA closing one losing trade with $10 net profit whenever and how often it can; new hedge opened whenever condition (ie extent of DD) is still met.
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4 - Test 4; same as Test 1 but has the CloseMinusPlus EA operating over the portfolio (closing one losing trade, at least -$10, with up to 3 winning trades and net profit of $2)
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