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Author Topic: FX Autotrader Elite  (Read 157189 times)

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #510 on: March 09, 2020, 04:26:15 AM »
Test 1 is off with a roar!


https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest2 - Test 2; the CloseAll for each strategy is replaced with a Hedge trade
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest3 - Test 3; the CloseAll for each strategy is replaced with a Hedge trade and each Hedge situation is controlled by the CMP EA closing one losing trade with $10 net profit whenever and how often it can; new hedge opened whenever condition (ie extent of DD) is still met.
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest4 - Test 4; same as Test 1 but has the CloseMinusPlus EA operating over the portfolio (closing one losing trade, at least -$10, with up to 3 winning trades and net profit of $2)
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 04:28:02 AM by diyforexskills »
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #511 on: March 13, 2020, 03:25:01 AM »
Danger

It's looking like Test 1 system for MACD portfolio is going to outperform the BackTest results!  :)  If this were a real account, I would now be taking 20% profit off the table after just two weeks. The system trades on fixed lot size so no need to keep profits in the account.

Test 1 operates without a CloseMinusbyPlus for the portfolio. And is doing so well compared to the tests that are using CMP for the portfolio.

So I have made some changes.

1. I removed CMP from Test 2 on Tuesday; it is now starting to recover from the $4K balance that was left.

2. In Tests 3 and 4 I have kept the CMP but today I have changed the settings so that a losing trade must have reached -$25 (previously -$12), before it can be closed for net $5 profit with just 1 profitable trade (previously 3).

This means that we are not crystallizing losses from losing trades so early (after all they may well turn around) and we are not closing profitable trades so early and letting most of them reach their full TPs.

So let's see if Tests 2, 3 and 4 can now catch up to Test 1.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 05:42:05 AM by diyforexskills »
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #512 on: March 15, 2020, 06:50:57 AM »
HedgeBot Trades

In Tests 2 and 3 we are using the Hedgebot EA in place of the CloseAll at -$300. In Test 2 by itself and in Test 3 in conjunction with the CMP EA so that we successively close losing trades when the hedge goes into profit.

The difficulty with hedging is that at some point we need to close the hedge, and we would like to do that when it is in profit; but with market reversals that is not always possible. And we then lose badly with the hedge.

So it is pleasing to see that at least to date, the hedges are overwhelmingly being closed in profit, as per image.

Nevertheless, Test 4 which uses the CloseAll rather than the Hedge, is still the best performer.

HedgeBot working with Close MinusbyPlus EA

With this setup in Test 3, a hedge trade is opened when the main trades for one of the pairs reaches -$300 open DD. The size of the hedge trade is set to 1.1x the net long or short of the main trades which can total up to 40 or so trades. The hedge is closed when it can close the largest losing trade with a profit of $10 - initially I had that net profit requirement set to $100, but using the $10 net profit requirement we can get rid of losing positions much more quickly and the hedge size is constantly being adjusted to reflect new conditions as some trades are closed by CloseatBar and/or new ones are opened; and then a new hedge is opened if conditions are still met; and so on.

This system is working nicely as can be seen in the image with hedge trades providing good profits.

In order in image - CADJ, UJ, EU and AU
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 06:55:49 AM by diyforexskills »
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #513 on: March 17, 2020, 11:17:45 AM »
A Pause or a something bigger?

Test 1 has had a spectacular two weeks, but now we have a largish open DD.

So let's see how this finishes. In Test 1 there is no CMP and no hedging to try and rescue DDs. Just a plain CloseAll.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #514 on: March 19, 2020, 07:39:56 AM »
A Pause or a something bigger?

Test 1 has had a spectacular two weeks, but now we have a largish open DD.

So let's see how this finishes. In Test 1 there is no CMP and no hedging to try and rescue DDs. Just a plain CloseAll.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.

OK, back to reality. We had the portfolio closeall at $1000 open DD overnight so were back down to 13% gain (from 33%). But already have booked another 5% profit today to start the recovery. Then again, open DD is -$260 so will see what the markets do tonight,
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #515 on: March 20, 2020, 05:12:49 AM »
A Pause or a something bigger?

Test 1 has had a spectacular two weeks, but now we have a largish open DD.

So let's see how this finishes. In Test 1 there is no CMP and no hedging to try and rescue DDs. Just a plain CloseAll.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.

OK, back to reality. We had the portfolio closeall at $1000 open DD overnight so were back down to 13% gain (from 33%). But already have booked another 5% profit today to start the recovery. Then again, open DD is -$260 so will see what the markets do tonight,

Fared pretty well last night. Lost a little but but open DD has turned into an open profit of around $100 (120 open trades!).

As we can see from the image, three strategies are doing well, and three are struggling. And in this test it is "every man for himself"; so no helping each other out with closeminusbyplus.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #516 on: March 21, 2020, 01:18:02 AM »
Roller Coaster

We survived last night very well and are now back to a 30% gain - up from 17% a day earlier. But with open DD of $450 so it is a day by day proposition.

Nice to see EU recovering and AU back in profit and CADJ making a small improvement.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.

Tests 2, 3 and 4 which use portfolio CMP and/or Hedge/CMP are still alive but under water. So the case for not using these EAs to manage the portfolio has strengthened considerably.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #517 on: March 22, 2020, 06:49:56 AM »
Changed Market Conditions

As shown in the first image for AUDUSD, 2020 is very different to 2019! As we all know.

So since the AUDUSD has not been doing well in the MACD portfolio testing, I have re-optimised the settings over the period 1Jan to 21 March 2020, and then reran both the original settings and the re-optimised ones over the full period from 1 Jan 2019 to 21 Mar 2020. Using both Open prices and Tick data for BTs.
(the latter is just to show that tick vs open prices BT results are not all that different for these EAs.)

The results are shown in the second image. A massive turnaround for 2020 with the new settings, from loss to large profit. But of course 2019 was then far less profitable but still around 20%.

Given these results, I will re-optimise the other 5 strategies and then start another Test, Test 5 (same portfolio conditions as Test 1 but with re-optimised settings).
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #518 on: March 26, 2020, 01:26:19 AM »
Update for Zephir

The CADJPY strategy in this portfolio, as per link below, has done well since May 2019, along with GJ and AU. But that is a demo testing account.

In January 2020 I placed the CADJPY strategy on a small live account and it has done well on live also. Interestingly, each of the four ATR-zoned strategies have traded this year as market volatility as measured by ATR has gone from very low to very high.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #519 on: March 26, 2020, 06:39:59 AM »
Analysing MACD Tests - EURAUD

We now have almost one month of forward test results for Tests 2, 3 and 4. So we can start analysing, looking for weakness and strength.

For EURAUD in Test 2 we used the HedgeBot to deal with DD rather than the CloseAll function. Two things are clear.

1. The Hedgebot worked well adding some $740 of profits (Magic 92613)

2. The scale-in trades were the cause of the big losses (Magic 2613211)

We can BT over the same period but of course to do that we can't use the HedgeBot, so relying on the CloseAll instead. Hence the results are not directly comparable but we see the same issue. BT with scale-ins is far worse than BT without scale-ins.

We see similar results for EURAUD in Test 4 in terms of with and without scale-ins; in Test 3 the scale-ins were just positive but in that Test we also use the CMP over the portfolio, making direct comparison difficult.

This issue with scale-ins was not evident in 2019 BTs with scale-ins adding an extra 25% of profit over the year. But given these 2020 results, it make sense to remove the scale-ins from the EURAUD set file.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 01:59:06 AM by diyforexskills »
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #520 on: March 27, 2020, 07:17:17 AM »
Further Analysis of MACD Tests

EURAUD
Reported on in previous Post. Only thing to add is that trades entered on Fridays are so far net negative; eg in Test 1, a loss of $427. Will keep an eye on this.

EURUSD and AUDUSD
Both these pairs have performed badly for trades entered on Mondays with the current set files. However this same issue is not evident in BTs for the re-optimised set files. Nor is it an issue when BT in 2019 so we will keep these set files for when markets return to more normal volatility.

USDJPY
No issues and trading by itself it is nicely profitable; eg $668 in Test 1 for March.

USDCAD and CADJPY

These have lost in all four Tests so if they don't pull up their socks, we may ditch them.

And while I was writing this, Test ! has just closed back at 30% gain!! Even AU is again in profit.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.
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Online FLechdrop

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #521 on: March 27, 2020, 10:09:46 AM »
I think this is showing great promise in any kind of trending environment. Probably would not do as well when things are choppy and going sideways for extended periods, but that is clearly not the case now.

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #522 on: March 27, 2020, 10:40:41 AM »
The funny thing is though, that these set files were optimised for the 2019 year, and the markets were not trending then; and the volatility was way lower.

So why are they, apart from USDCAD and CADJPY, doing so well in March 2020 when the market has trended big time and volatility is so high?
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #523 on: March 28, 2020, 06:17:58 AM »
Closing MACD Tests 2, 3 and 4; starting Test 5

Tests 2, 3 and 4 have been running since 10 Feb and were all about seeing whether:

(a) portfolio management via the use of the Close Minus by Plus EA would be beneficial - the answer is "No"; it tends to crystallise losses too early and prevents profitable trades going to their full potential

(b) Hedging a losing position for one of the strategies at around $300 open loss and trying to recover would be better than just taking this occasional loss - the answer again is "No". Combining the HedgeBot with the CMP to successively close losing positions does lead to HedgeBot trades making a nice profit (eg over $600 for UJ in Test 3), but it also prevents a new trading sequence from opening as long as hedging is occurring. And it would seem that closing all trades at around -$300 and then letting a new trading sequence open, leads to better results (as demonstrated in Test 1 which has had an excellent performance).

Results for USDCAD illustrate these points nicely. In Test 1 we still have two open USDCAD trades at around 310 pips in profit. These same two trades were closed in the other Tests at far smaller profits because they were used in CloseMinusbyPlus closures of losing trades for other currencies.

The results of these 7 week Tests (2, 3 and 4) are shown below. Some changes were made during the period so in terms of comparison to Test 1, these results are indicative only.

I will start a new Test 5. This will involve comparing the original set files for AU, EU and USDCAD with their re-optimised set files (made for the 2020 market conditions; re-optimisation for the other three made no difference) and EURAUD in which scale-ins have been removed (they had a negative impact). Test 1 will be running with the changed set files as from Monday; ATR filters are now used in these three set files so that it will switch from one to the other depending on the ATR levels for these currency pairs.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: FX Autotrader Elite
« Reply #524 on: March 31, 2020, 05:36:52 AM »
MACD Test 5 is up and running

This test only has the original set files for AU, EU and USDCAD (so as to provide a comparison for these in Test 1 which now have the re-optimised versions over 2020 data for high ATR running), plus three versions for EURAUD.

Why three EURUAD versions? Well, it turns out that EURAUD in Test 1 is accidentally running with the set file for AU; and since that has returned nearly 20% in March, almost half of the total profit for the portfolio, we may as well let it continue in Test 1. Stranger things happen in forex trading.

So in Test 5, the three set files running on EURAUD are:
1. The original set file
2. The original set file but no scale-ins and no trades on Wednesdays
3. The re-optimised AU set file (to see if this does better than the original AU set file running on EURAUD in Test 1)

Since Monday, the original EURAUD set file has already returned $350 profit

Edit - an hour or so later and we now have nearly $900 in closed profit; in just two days. And to think that I sometimes spend hours trading manually to make $20 to $30 per day when we can do it all on auto for much greater profits.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest5

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FLechdrop/autotrader/4843809 - Test 1; each strategy managed individually with a CloseAll at -$300 (varies a bit for each). Test 1 started on 2 March, 3 weeks after the other Tests.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 08:51:42 AM by diyforexskills »
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