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Author Topic: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds  (Read 129391 times)

Offline fxtyrant

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #765 on: June 21, 2019, 03:37:47 AM »
It's a 70% drawdown. It's equavalant to a blow up.

The drawdown is calculated for the previous equity high, not from were the account started years ago!

ur clearly not making sense... because if the current money value in drawdown divided by the balance from the very start... its 200% drawdown and what not.....

peak to through for me right now is around 45% atm.


Outsidethebox, is this you?  ;D ;D ;D ;D

I have the same feeling and already reported to moderator months ago. I think fxtyrant is using a different IP address. And I don't know how to prove it.

because you cant prove it....
heard of innocent until proven guilty? so if the moderators cant prove im OTB (simply because im not), then i would advise you to drop this or I will report you for false accusations.

Also just because im being supportive of how he trades, doesnt make me him....
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 03:56:19 AM by fxtyrant »

Offline fxtyrant

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #766 on: June 21, 2019, 05:13:07 AM »
Hi Folks, just got word from Greg (OTB),

hes trying to focus on trading his way out of yet another stretch of drawdown (which btw is the best time as investors can expect much higher balance when the drawdown is over, since hes gona grind out enough profit during this time where it'll negate the effects of the current drawdown).

In the mean time do not be changing your risk factors as it may lead to unwanted delays or disruption for the drawdown to be reduced and underperformance relative to benchmark.

Just be aware drawdown can get as high as 40-45%, based on past performance. unless you know what you're doing you are advised to stick to 1x risk factor on a 1:500 max leverage.... if you have only a 1:200 max lev, be sure to adjust accordingly or risk being margin called prematurely....

While hes focusing on the trading, he will not be posting on Weekdays. Thanks for your understanding.

He'll provide us with more details over the weekend.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 05:22:30 AM by fxtyrant »

Offline outsidetheboxhk

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #767 on: June 21, 2019, 10:52:05 AM »
@fxtyrant. he close his trade everyday. So it s easy to compare balance equity etc. Actually this fxbook is not the one i subscribed. The total balance does not match. I would be curious to see the fxbook of the pamm i subscribed.
About the risk. when i subscribed to this pamm, OTB wasn't betting on DOW. Only on NZD and aud. Was low risk. Then he decided to bet on dow and zar (and turkish livra, but not sure). High risk. I would be stupid to not reduce the risk.
Again today a loss again the ZAR.
Used to be low risk... Coz of no stop loss: big drawdown. With fiat, i can understand the strategy, but with dow?
New low today. 3 pair - 3 loss. I dont even understand why trading today with the fed.
Probably gonna close this account at the end of the week.

That's what mtcook system does..... they show the balance as if trades are closed every  day but they're not....
none of the trades have closed for loss today.

strange thing is his copy trader is now at around 20% dd though.....
im not too sure about his risk management on the other broker/platforms like darwinex/axi..

whats more surprising to me  is why is his darwinex (BUX) closing the 1 of the 3 Dow trades at a loss... copy traders didn't get that hit....


Just getting chance to respond.  keeping it brief but I do communicate what needs to be communicated.
The Darwinex and AxiSelect strategies I have no clients or copiers.  I use them as Cash Flow strategies and have taken out profits from them along the way.  I run more risk on strategies that have no clients and that I am experimenting with and using as slush funds.
Pick your strategy and risk and stick with it, pull out profits regularly, and don't micromanage.  I go for Dollar Profits, nothing else.  The ups and downs should be disregarded as "the cost to be in for the times of glory" --- preserve capital above all else.

11.5% booked profit this month
and current manageable drawdown at 1x risk is 30%
So NET drawdown for month is 18.5%.
This happens from time to time, but I have suffered worse periods of drawdown and the strategy pulls out with mean reversion and scalping frequency increased during DD period. I will respond to constructive discussion

Just as a balance to these emotional reactions -- I made 22% on low risk last month and was flat with no drawdown -- no one bothered to comment then.  So over last 7 weeks we have made profit.  It is all perspective and staying calm and staying invested for the good times that is essential.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 10:57:37 AM by outsidetheboxhk »
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Offline SJWkiller

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #768 on: June 21, 2019, 11:41:33 AM »
-13 % today in Mt cook... - 4 % yesterday....
Began sept 2018 . with 1.5 k
Today 1.23 .
It s not drawndawn whining. It s shitty results.
Not talking that used to be "low risk"
you are clearly reading this wrong. none of the trades were closed in loss on the master mam, the -13% today and -4% yesterday is because theres floating trades causing equity to be down day to day... as soon as the drawdown reduces, you'll start seeing it go up +X% one day and +X% another day without actually any closed trade...

because of how MtCook reports their position. also why you dont see Rollover costs showing up on individual trades, but only as a withdraw from the account.

fxtyrant has a point here. With this strategy its foolish to change the risk too often because you get completely different results due to high variance.


Offline F1Maniac

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #769 on: June 24, 2019, 04:18:02 AM »
or keep trading against the trend, the last months has been heaven for trend fighters. there has been no follow through per se on any direction so this martingale would work. I can see this trade is being copied elsewhere too, we are constantly trading 2~3pips profit while running several 100pips negative.

The divergence between equity and balance is the highest I can see since start. With this the problem is that anyone who just started will be on a high drawdown and quite possibly have the account blown. they didnt have the 20% profit from last month remember? anyway i find this style of martingale as well as the constant scalping when on high lots - the traits of a nervous trader. I've done this myself in the past... you recover a few times but as many have indicated this is a ticking time bomb to the eventuality. You observe some other signals that operate martingale like shikari - there are set levels for profit and opening new trades, perhaps might survive longer as the trader doesnt over trade.

For everyone who's following sake i hope i am wrong and this signal continues to make a lot of money for everyone....

Offline fxtyrant

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #770 on: June 25, 2019, 12:49:19 AM »
or keep trading against the trend, the last months has been heaven for trend fighters. there has been no follow through per se on any direction so this martingale would work. I can see this trade is being copied elsewhere too, we are constantly trading 2~3pips profit while running several 100pips negative.

The divergence between equity and balance is the highest I can see since start. With this the problem is that anyone who just started will be on a high drawdown and quite possibly have the account blown. they didnt have the 20% profit from last month remember? anyway i find this style of martingale as well as the constant scalping when on high lots - the traits of a nervous trader. I've done this myself in the past... you recover a few times but as many have indicated this is a ticking time bomb to the eventuality. You observe some other signals that operate martingale like shikari - there are set levels for profit and opening new trades, perhaps might survive longer as the trader doesnt over trade.

For everyone who's following sake i hope i am wrong and this signal continues to make a lot of money for everyone....

This bit goes to show you don't know how drawdown works on account that has a growth to show for..... and how growth calculations are done....

50% drawdown on a 1000% account is 500%, same goes for a 50% drawdown on a 10% account is 5%....
obviously the latter scenario makes you think that the balance and equity is much narrower than the earlier scenario....

hope you understand the relation.

Otherwise, have to admit the drawdown is not ideal.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 02:32:01 AM by fxtyrant »

Offline Nasdaq100

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #771 on: June 25, 2019, 08:09:49 AM »
or keep trading against the trend, the last months has been heaven for trend fighters. there has been no follow through per se on any direction so this martingale would work. I can see this trade is being copied elsewhere too, we are constantly trading 2~3pips profit while running several 100pips negative.

The divergence between equity and balance is the highest I can see since start. With this the problem is that anyone who just started will be on a high drawdown and quite possibly have the account blown. they didnt have the 20% profit from last month remember? anyway i find this style of martingale as well as the constant scalping when on high lots - the traits of a nervous trader. I've done this myself in the past... you recover a few times but as many have indicated this is a ticking time bomb to the eventuality. You observe some other signals that operate martingale like shikari - there are set levels for profit and opening new trades, perhaps might survive longer as the trader doesnt over trade.

For everyone who's following sake i hope i am wrong and this signal continues to make a lot of money for everyone....

This bit goes to show you don't know how drawdown works on account that has a growth to show for..... and how growth calculations are done....

50% drawdown on a 1000% account is 500%, same goes for a 50% drawdown on a 10% account is 5%....
obviously the latter scenario makes you think that the balance and equity is much narrower than the earlier scenario....

hope you understand the relation.

Otherwise, have to admit the drawdown is not ideal.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Offline F1Maniac

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #772 on: June 25, 2019, 08:47:22 AM »
I am fully aware mate, the divergence between the equity and the balance is the drawdown.. obviously in %, for e.g. if equity = 0.5 * balance then the account is in 50% drawdown. for some reason the max historic drawdown is at 26% which is not true and its much more than that at the moment. Perhaps you can confirm what the DD is at the moment? what was the hard stop 40%?

The bit i dont understand is the constant fidgetiness to close the open trades when the lot size gets higher with no real close when it goes into negative. this for me is a concerning behavior ;( perhaps OTB will take time to explain this strategy of this.

Online primi

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #773 on: June 25, 2019, 09:23:42 AM »

Otherwise, have to admit the drawdown is not ideal.

Your risk appetite must be through the roof if this is only in the "not ideal" territory.

His high risk account, that blew up twice very recently is now at about 5% remaining equity. For all intents and purposes again blown. That makes it 3 times in 6 months or so right? It's unsustainable for every investor, you can't make enough money to withdraw and keep funding it - it makes zero sense.

Regular risk account is now at about 50%DD as well and it's very difficult to argue he's not prepared to run it to the ground as well.

Offline fxtyrant

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #774 on: June 25, 2019, 09:46:40 AM »
or keep trading against the trend, the last months has been heaven for trend fighters. there has been no follow through per se on any direction so this martingale would work. I can see this trade is being copied elsewhere too, we are constantly trading 2~3pips profit while running several 100pips negative.

The divergence between equity and balance is the highest I can see since start. With this the problem is that anyone who just started will be on a high drawdown and quite possibly have the account blown. they didnt have the 20% profit from last month remember? anyway i find this style of martingale as well as the constant scalping when on high lots - the traits of a nervous trader. I've done this myself in the past... you recover a few times but as many have indicated this is a ticking time bomb to the eventuality. You observe some other signals that operate martingale like shikari - there are set levels for profit and opening new trades, perhaps might survive longer as the trader doesnt over trade.

For everyone who's following sake i hope i am wrong and this signal continues to make a lot of money for everyone....

This bit goes to show you don't know how drawdown works on account that has a growth to show for..... and how growth calculations are done....

50% drawdown on a 1000% account is 500%, same goes for a 50% drawdown on a 10% account is 5%....
obviously the latter scenario makes you think that the balance and equity is much narrower than the earlier scenario....

hope you understand the relation.

Otherwise, have to admit the drawdown is not ideal.

You have no idea what you're talking about.
you're getting real annoying.

Offline fxtyrant

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #775 on: June 25, 2019, 09:51:36 AM »
I am fully aware mate, the divergence between the equity and the balance is the drawdown.. obviously in %, for e.g. if equity = 0.5 * balance then the account is in 50% drawdown. for some reason the max historic drawdown is at 26% which is not true and its much more than that at the moment. Perhaps you can confirm what the DD is at the moment? what was the hard stop 40%?

The bit i dont understand is the constant fidgetiness to close the open trades when the lot size gets higher with no real close when it goes into negative. this for me is a concerning behavior ;( perhaps OTB will take time to explain this strategy of this.

His Drawdown is closer to -46% atm,
The Myfxbook's Max Drawdown's calculation maybe a bit flawed.... or maybe they factor in the money he has withdrawn as part of the full balance of his account??

Offline fxtyrant

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #776 on: June 25, 2019, 09:52:43 AM »

Otherwise, have to admit the drawdown is not ideal.

Your risk appetite must be through the roof if this is only in the "not ideal" territory.

His high risk account, that blew up twice very recently is now at about 5% remaining equity. For all intents and purposes again blown. That makes it 3 times in 6 months or so right? It's unsustainable for every investor, you can't make enough money to withdraw and keep funding it - it makes zero sense.

Regular risk account is now at about 50%DD as well and it's very difficult to argue he's not prepared to run it to the ground as well.

I follow his 1x, not high risk.

And i know the guy personally, he cant afford to have the regular risk account run to ground as his livelihood relies on making money for the investors. no other job.
this is his full time gig.

Offline Archer Asset Management

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #777 on: June 25, 2019, 09:56:40 AM »
Sounds familiar?

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the kings horses and all the kings men
Couldnt put Humpty together again.
Money Manager:
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Long Asia Global LTD (Cyprus) is located at Acropoleos Avenue No. 74, Apt. 18, Nicosia, Cyprus

Offline fxtyrant

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #778 on: June 25, 2019, 11:12:51 AM »
Sounds familiar?

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the kings horses and all the kings men
Couldnt put Humpty together again.

Mate... anyone sitting on a wall is always at risk of a fall.
and nobody really fully recovers when they break,

so dont be mean to humpty dumpty, we all are humpty dumpties.

Online user456

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Re: Outsidethebox HK Signals & PAMM funds
« Reply #779 on: June 25, 2019, 12:56:50 PM »
To stay in your analogy. There is a difference between someone sitting on a wall and another person dancing, doing flips and shouting "I'm the invincible king of the world". All this blindfolded of course.

 

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