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Author Topic: SFE Price Action EA  (Read 96709 times)

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #450 on: September 02, 2019, 04:18:15 PM »
Signals is not available on MQL5...yet.

Have you managed to backtest the combo at all either individually or as a combo? Presumably, you have to add the individual DD together to get the tue potential DD?

Reducing risk by a factor of ten ( and keeping expectations in the real world) this would average about 4% on good months with a DD of 8% from Feb 19 - similar to cyborg the only other EA with a profitable 2 year performance.

Joel the author said he is going to set it up on MQL5 under his account this week but hes certainly taking his time...probably just shows that he doesnt really care if people subscribe or not lol. After all we dont really need to have subscribers with the profits the EAs are making for us. :)

About the DD with running multiple SFE EAs, Joel has explained in the past that when you run more than one SFE EAs together the total DD is expected to be less because of the risk diversification. See the PDF file of his explanation here: https://c.mql5.com/31/207/MERGE_SFE_EXPERTS__1.zip

It basically says you can run 3 price action based SFE EAs plus SFE Night Scalper and you can trade 210% of the balance and expect the same risk as if you were only trading SFE PA alone at 100% risk. :)
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 04:30:46 PM by ccjhuang »

Online petersurrey

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #451 on: September 03, 2019, 08:36:30 AM »
Interesting from March 1st 2019 ( last 6 months)...if you remove 12 of the loss/underperforming pairs ( ie almost half), leaving the profitable ones (yes curve fitting I know;), it trebles the expectancy to $71 from $24, reduces the DD to 54 from 88. It increases the win rate to 62% and PF to ~1.8 from 1.3 and total net profit to 150K from 111K  Worth considering if you can isolate pairs as possible with SS.

..and over the 2 years, those same 12 pairs produce 6.25% average monthly growth with 40% max DD vs 4.73% growth and 88% DD with 24 pairs ....with an expectancy of $40 vs $10!...food for thought :)
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 08:56:37 AM by petersurrey »

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #452 on: September 03, 2019, 02:20:33 PM »
Its always easy to analyse in hindsight, but I feel it would still be better to run all pairs for risk diversification as there will come a time the other half of the pairs will perform better and you could miss out on the gains. For example EURUSD has been underperforming for some time now, but Joel has always stated that EURUSD is the pair with the best results in mid to long term.

Also, based on Joels analysis and backtests, all the pairs should give positive gains in the long term anyway, so there is no harm in trading all pairs as the overall profit on each pair should all eventually end up in positive territory given enough time :)

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #453 on: September 04, 2019, 11:34:02 PM »
Just to let you guys know that the MQL5 signal is finally available for subscription. The link in my signature is working now. :)

Please read the description carefully before you start copying the signal, as I am currently running my account at 4-5 times recommended risk!

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #454 on: September 07, 2019, 02:12:10 AM »
Weekly Result - 2nd Sep 2019 to 6th Sep 2019

Total: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?#week)
-$3900.86

SFE Price Action: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=400051-450601#week)
-$924.04

SFE Attractor: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=510051-510605#week)
-$2922.09

SFE Night Scalper: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=710051-710302#week)
+$62.04

SFE EURUSD: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=800051-860602#week)
-$116.77

The market was mostly quiet this week and it was reflected on the losses on SFE PA/Attractor/EU because there was not enough volatility to generate enough price movement to benefit the EAs. Nevertheless it's good to see how well these EAs are designed at exiting unfavourable trades and I am only down less than 4% for the week. To be able to minimise losses is just as important as maximising gains! ;)

I believe at the moment the market is just waiting for the ECB decision next week and the FOMC decision the week after. Therefore I expect some good price movements in the next 2 weeks which should be favourable to the price action based SFE EAs. Let's see what the market will bring us in the next fortnight. :)

Have a nice weekend!

This week's announcement:
  • SFE Combo MQL5 signal is finally available for subscription, thanks to Joel for listing it :)

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #455 on: September 09, 2019, 08:46:12 AM »
SFE Combo is now ranked #17 on Signal Start after a good start to the week! ;)




Online donbon2

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #456 on: September 10, 2019, 01:44:10 AM »
just a comment - at this point you seem to be more a vendor - than someone adding objective thinking about the EA

maybe you can get your own thread for that -- HumbleTrader maybe able to help you.

In terms of this EA and other Price Action EAs - they are great when everything is firing and the market is moving a lot -- but people need to be aware they can chew through 10-15% just as quick ... so yeah they should be just one part of your portfolio for most people  anyway.

Online petersurrey

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #457 on: September 10, 2019, 02:16:11 AM »
SFE Combo is now ranked #17 on Signal Start after a good start to the week! ;)





Judging from SS appalling history of promoting dodgy systems this is nothing to get too excited about  - good luck anyway, and hopefully yours will be one that lasts the course... :)

Online petersurrey

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #458 on: September 10, 2019, 02:19:01 AM »
just a comment - at this point you seem to be more a vendor - than someone adding objective thinking about the EA

maybe you can get your own thread for that -- HumbleTrader maybe able to help you.

In terms of this EA and other Price Action EAs - they are great when everything is firing and the market is moving a lot -- but people need to be aware they can chew through 10-15% just as quick ... so yeah they should be just one part of your portfolio for most people  anyway.

Agreed - last year wasn't great and a LOT of patience is required for this one at sensible leverage. It has proved to be robust over the 2 years whereas many have failed though....

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #459 on: September 10, 2019, 02:50:55 AM »
Thank you both for your comments. :)

I probably look like a vendor but I don't really consider myself one. I am just a happy user of the SFE EAs that knows their potential, and I would like to share them with others so that people can stop losing money in Forex and start treating it as a proper investment. Most people ignore the mathematics behind the trading systems and just gamble their money away like they are in a casino, which really is a shame - because with proper money management and the SFE EAs, one will have a long term edge over the market like I have shown in the past few years. ;)

My aim is to get people to start using the SFE EAs so at least they won't lose money in the long term like they do with most other systems. I know I brag about the SFE EAs a lot, but it is true that they are better than 99% of the EAs out there!

And you are right that the Signal Start ranking is very dodgy, but at least my account is the only one in top 20 that has lasted more than a year. ::) (The #2 system was opened in 2014 but only started trading a few months ago).

To be honest I don't really need subscribers to make a living, but I just want to make my signal available to those who believe in the SFE EAs like I do. But at the same time I cannot just list my signal for free because it is the intellectual property of Joel the vendor, and I believe people need to be willing to sow before they can reap the rewards.  :)

Offline sonita

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #460 on: September 10, 2019, 05:48:55 PM »
Do not forget, you had a 88% drawdown, a bit more and you could not be so happy about SFE EAs... Personally I do not find so attractive the figures of these EAs (290% profit with 88%, there are many systems with better ratio). And why you are so sure that such DD will not occur again in the future???

Regards,
Sonita

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #461 on: September 10, 2019, 09:56:59 PM »
Do not forget, you had a 88% drawdown, a bit more and you could not be so happy about SFE EAs... Personally I do not find so attractive the figures of these EAs (290% profit with 88%, there are many systems with better ratio). And why you are so sure that such DD will not occur again in the future???

Regards,
Sonita

I have explained about the drawdown before here: https://donnaforex.com/index.php?topic=19777.msg390491#msg390491

Basically I have been running the account as if it is much larger and I was ready to put in more funds if I had to. Also there is no point leaving all the funds in my forex account just to make the DD look smaller when I can leave them in my bank to offset my mortgage! ;D On my signal descriptions you will see I have asked people to only copy with 0.20 risk multiplier because I am still currently running the account at about 4-5x the recommended risk.

I trade like this with the EAs because I have 100% confidence in them and I know now is right the time to use higher risk. I am sure there will be a big breakout on EURUSD and other major pairs soon because the official accounts for SFE Price Action and SFE EURUSD have both been in DD for 6-7 months now.

Once the SFE PA official account gets back to equity high then I will reduce the risk on my account back to recommended level.

The DD can be deceiving, but I can assure you that making $300K over 3 years is not just due to luck: ;)
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 10:23:50 PM by ccjhuang »

Online donbon2

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #462 on: September 10, 2019, 10:35:53 PM »
even though you do not think your a vendor - you are.

Also just a general comment - the problem is that very few people have your experience to know how to manage these EAs the way you do - really they are a minefield in terms of performance - sometimes outstanding but sometimes complete destruction of your account in a short space of time.

the average person using these on their own would probably end up losing money.

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #463 on: September 10, 2019, 11:03:10 PM »
Ok, I am a vendor then :)

I agree with your points, but after all Forex itself is the biggest minefield of all. People will have a much better chance of surviving and being profitable in the long term if they just use the SFE EAs and stick to the recommended risk. The problem is most people have no patience and give up on them when they dont see much growth over a few months, and then they end up losing all the money to some other grid/martingale systems that have nice looking growths but can lose the entire account in a flash when the market goes against them.

I just want to put it out there that most people dont understand the maths behind Forex trading, and they look for systems that are just too good to be true and cannot possibly be mathematically sustained in the long term.

By the way, here is a good article by Joel the vendor about those nice looking forex systems which I believe is worth everyones time to read:

about Frero system or similar systems, last months, near two years already, has been a big opportunity for this kind of systems which never closes a losing position. Yes they close single positions, but only closes all the opened positions when the balance of them is positive. These systems different variants, but in general they are grid systems in the sense that opens multiple positions when they falls in loses, a limited number obviously, trying to not fall in a margin call.

Is like a refined version of martingale systems, and while the average life of a martingale system, I think is strange that can go more far than some weeks, this grid systems can survive more until the Apocalypsy day.

Another famous systems of this kind is the ForexStay signals and EAs on mql5. Last week, the ForexStay main signal was at very few pips of the margin call, but a holly reverse at last moment did safe the account again for the moment. I remember forexstay signals wipe all his accounts one or two years ago, but now has returned with force.

The problem with these systems is that sometimes the creator of of the systems publishes the system as if can get this profit always and the risk is controlled. No doubt that in flat moments, grid systems can be a lot profitable, but the creator should inform to his users that at the first big movement in contrary direction the account is wiped. This means that when you use this systems, you have to witdhdraw the won money regularly, because soon or later all the balance will be lost.

For newbies, I will explain the trick to know if we are in front of this danger:   any account with a stats of profit factor above 3-4-5, and more this accounts with profit factors of 10 or more, are systems that only will end in a margin call, because this profit factor is the proof that the system don't accept close a losing position, so, if the trade don't change his strategy meanwhile, the account will broke at final. Don't exist any EA or any human brain with the cappacity of have a positive odds of 10:1 over the market.

Another advise for newbies. For example in mql5 signals, we can see the ratio 'algo trading'. For the signals based on EAs, this ratio should be 100%, or 99% because open a position manually in the wrong account by error can happens. But I see often signals of this kind of EAs that the algo trading is only 70-80-90, this means that the creator of the EA is acting when the DD is discontroled.

And comes other trick to my head to detect these kind of dangerous accounts. Accounts that has made profits of >=1000% but starting with amounts as little like 50 or 100$. It's very easy to the seller start accounts with this low amounts and launch a big risk until this initial low ammount has multiplied for x4, x5, x10. Obiously for every account that get x10, a lot of other accounts has lose money or haven't get this big profit, but is part of the trick. Once any of the accounts has this fancy profit of 1000% for example, the signal is published and newbies subscrobes in mass until the next wipe. A proof of this is that the account has not been plublished since the start, because really don't exist only this account, this is part of 10,20,50 or any large number of accounts...

Another trick of the EA sellers is publish a lot of signals with different setups. Divide in timeframes, or divide in pairs, or divide in systems. Use different combinations. After some time, the losing combinations dissapear from the list of signals and only the winning combinations are showing. And a newbie can think: ah, it's ok, this system in AUDUSD and USDJPY in m15 timeframe is a beast, and don't understand that can be only a good streak of this setup. If a system is not profitable in the whole, a single setup is only profitable because a good streak, but the system don't have an edge in mid term neither in this setup.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 01:51:03 AM by ccjhuang »

Online petersurrey

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #464 on: September 12, 2019, 03:08:20 AM »
Ok, I am a vendor then :)

I agree with your points, but after all Forex itself is the biggest minefield of all. People will have a much better chance of surviving and being profitable in the long term if they just use the SFE EAs and stick to the recommended risk. The problem is most people have no patience and give up on them when they dont see much growth over a few months, and then they end up losing all the money to some other grid/martingale systems that have nice looking growths but can lose the entire account in a flash when the market goes against them.

I just want to put it out there that most people dont understand the maths behind Forex trading, and they look for systems that are just too good to be true and cannot possibly be mathematically sustained in the long term.

By the way, here is a good article by Joel the vendor about those nice looking forex systems which I believe is worth everyones time to read:

about Frero system or similar systems, last months, near two years already, has been a big opportunity for this kind of systems which never closes a losing position. Yes they close single positions, but only closes all the opened positions when the balance of them is positive. These systems different variants, but in general they are grid systems in the sense that opens multiple positions when they falls in loses, a limited number obviously, trying to not fall in a margin call.

Is like a refined version of martingale systems, and while the average life of a martingale system, I think is strange that can go more far than some weeks, this grid systems can survive more until the Apocalypsy day.

Another famous systems of this kind is the ForexStay signals and EAs on mql5. Last week, the ForexStay main signal was at very few pips of the margin call, but a holly reverse at last moment did safe the account again for the moment. I remember forexstay signals wipe all his accounts one or two years ago, but now has returned with force.

The problem with these systems is that sometimes the creator of of the systems publishes the system as if can get this profit always and the risk is controlled. No doubt that in flat moments, grid systems can be a lot profitable, but the creator should inform to his users that at the first big movement in contrary direction the account is wiped. This means that when you use this systems, you have to witdhdraw the won money regularly, because soon or later all the balance will be lost.

For newbies, I will explain the trick to know if we are in front of this danger:   any account with a stats of profit factor above 3-4-5, and more this accounts with profit factors of 10 or more, are systems that only will end in a margin call, because this profit factor is the proof that the system don't accept close a losing position, so, if the trade don't change his strategy meanwhile, the account will broke at final. Don't exist any EA or any human brain with the cappacity of have a positive odds of 10:1 over the market.

Another advise for newbies. For example in mql5 signals, we can see the ratio 'algo trading'. For the signals based on EAs, this ratio should be 100%, or 99% because open a position manually in the wrong account by error can happens. But I see often signals of this kind of EAs that the algo trading is only 70-80-90, this means that the creator of the EA is acting when the DD is discontroled.

And comes other trick to my head to detect these kind of dangerous accounts. Accounts that has made profits of >=1000% but starting with amounts as little like 50 or 100$. It's very easy to the seller start accounts with this low amounts and launch a big risk until this initial low ammount has multiplied for x4, x5, x10. Obiously for every account that get x10, a lot of other accounts has lose money or haven't get this big profit, but is part of the trick. Once any of the accounts has this fancy profit of 1000% for example, the signal is published and newbies subscrobes in mass until the next wipe. A proof of this is that the account has not been plublished since the start, because really don't exist only this account, this is part of 10,20,50 or any large number of accounts...

Another trick of the EA sellers is publish a lot of signals with different setups. Divide in timeframes, or divide in pairs, or divide in systems. Use different combinations. After some time, the losing combinations dissapear from the list of signals and only the winning combinations are showing. And a newbie can think: ah, it's ok, this system in AUDUSD and USDJPY in m15 timeframe is a beast, and don't understand that can be only a good streak of this setup. If a system is not profitable in the whole, a single setup is only profitable because a good streak, but the system don't have an edge in mid term neither in this setup.


Excellent article and should be reposted as a 'sticky' above the EA forum thread!

 

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