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Author Topic: SFE Price Action EA  (Read 97336 times)

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #465 on: September 12, 2019, 07:11:35 AM »
Excellent article and should be reposted as a 'sticky' above the EA forum thread!

Yes Joel is very knowledgeable and he knows the proper maths behind Forex trading. His EAs are developed based on trading systems and algorithms that have true long term edge over the market, unlike other grid/martingale systems that just buy time before they eventually (and inevitably) blow up. That's why I trust in him and his EAs 100%. :)

By the way, today is ECB day!

Historically the price action based SFE EAs have done very well whenever there is a surprise from central bank decisions, especially the ECB and the FOMC.

In June 2018 the SFE Price Action official account gained 23.72% in one day thanks to ECB...it would be nice if we can get that again! ;D


Offline Fastrack Forex

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #466 on: September 12, 2019, 03:41:43 PM »
Wow, the up and down might be too much for any people to copy. See today trades!  ;D

Offline 5ninefish

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #467 on: September 12, 2019, 03:49:46 PM »
Wow. Today would probably be a great day to join, catch some recovery, then cancel and wait for the next dip.

Offline sonita

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #468 on: September 12, 2019, 05:08:07 PM »
of course, not a system for serious investors, casino like grid- and martingale...

Regards,
Sonita


Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #469 on: September 12, 2019, 06:22:10 PM »
Yeah its a wild ride today and its a shame that I had to lose a lot before making a recovery.

At least my account equity is back in positive territory for the day now. :)

Offline sonita

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #470 on: September 12, 2019, 06:54:36 PM »
It is okay if you want to trade such system for you, if you can lose in 2 or 3 hours all your account of 100 000 or more, no problem, but be more careful in recommending such a simple gambling EA to other trader.

Regards,
Sonita

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #471 on: September 12, 2019, 07:40:01 PM »
It is okay if you want to trade such system for you, if you can lose in 2 or 3 hours all your account of 100 000 or more, no problem, but be more careful in recommending such a simple gambling EA to other trader.

Regards,
Sonita

I have already said I am trading at about 4-5 times the recommended risk, and I have asked people to only copy with 0.20 risk multiplier. If they did that the DD today would only be about 10% on their account.

It may seem like gambling to you but it really isnt. I hope you can try to understand the statistics and probability behind the system before you call it as such. This system will work just as well running at lower risk, but I am using high risk only because I trust the system and I know now is the right time to increase the risk.

If it was just a gambling system, the official SFE Price Action account wouldnt be sitting at over 400% gain after 4 years and nearly 22000 trades...

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #472 on: September 14, 2019, 12:23:42 AM »
Weekly Result - 9th Sep 2019 to 13rd Sep 2019

Total: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?#week)
-$759.16 (with $14318.19 floating profit)

SFE Price Action: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=400051-450601#week)
+$3569.41

SFE Attractor: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=510051-510605#week)
+$6127.99

SFE Night Scalper: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=710051-710302#week)
+$387.35

SFE EURUSD: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=800051-860602#week)
-$10840.94

Wow...what a week it was! :o The ECB certainly didn't disappoint and gave us a lot of volatility, but the U-turn on EURUSD was certainly very nasty and my account was down about $50K very quickly! Fortunately the SFE EAs were able to catch the reversal and recovered all the losses. Now I have a basket of nice floating profit going into next week. :)

SFE PA and SFE Attractor ended the week with nice positive gains, and it is SFE EU that had a large loss. I think again it demonstrates the importance of trading multiple pairs for risk diversification to help minimise the drawdown. I am sure SFE EU will recover soon (maybe as soon as next week with the coming FOMC), but it would certainly be better to have less DD! ;)

Following the big (although temporary) drawdown on ECB day, I have decided that I will change my lot sizes to the following once the current basket closes:

SFE PA - 0.6 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $1000)
SFE ATR - 0.6 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $1000)
SFE EU - 1.0 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $600)
SFE NS - 0.9 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$31500 at 0.01 Lot per $350)

Total amount risked = US$60K + US$60K + US$60K + US$31.5K = US$211.5K

So using Joels merging SFE experts guide (see attached), my exposure would be roughly US$211.5K / 2.1 = US$100.71K = AU$146.8K (with AU exchange rate of 0.686)

Which means if my account has AU$150K and run the above lot sizes, I will be trading at the recommended risk. :D

Even if my account doesnt have $150K, the new risk will still be much more acceptable than 4-5x recommended risk. For example, if my account has $100K then I would be running at 1.5x recommended risk with the new lot sizes.

If the current trades don't all close before FOMC next week, then I plan to change the lot sizes just 10 minutes before FOMC takes place, so if another nasty zigzag happens this time we won't be hit as much.

For current subscribers, please leave the risk multiplier at 0.20 for now. Once I have reduced the risk on my account I will post an update here, and once that happens it would then be safe for you to use a risk multiplier higher than 0.20.

Have a nice weekend! :)
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 04:51:03 AM by ccjhuang »

Offline taipan888

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #473 on: September 14, 2019, 02:55:44 PM »
Joels merging SFE experts guide contains this important claim: "This correlation means that probably the total DD at any moment can be higher than the individual DD, although dont mean that the DD will be the sum of DD, this would be in case of 100% correlation, but is not the case, of course. Then, is profitable merge them, because the total DD is never the sum of the individual DD, while the total profit is always the sum of individual profits, this means that the ratio  Profit / DD when we use more than one, is better than using only one, and if we try to fix the total DD at a certain value, means that we will do more profit using more than one."

Unfortunately, his claim is wrong.  If the correlation of the 2 EAs is not 100%, the max DD of the merged EAs is not  the sum of the DDs of the individual EAs. This is correct. But, the max. profit of the merged EAs is also not the sum of the profits of the indivisdual EAs, because sometimes one EA is making profit, while the other is making lost. Its the same statistical behavior as in the consideration of DD.

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #474 on: September 14, 2019, 05:15:39 PM »
Hmm...I am pretty sure if Joel was able to develop these great EAs using his knowledge in statistics and probability, he wont make a simple calculation error like that...

Lets say we have 2 profitable systems, A and B.

And when we do a backtest, system A makes X units in a given year, and system B makes Y units in the same year. For simplicity we will assume the backtests were done using Fixed Lots (which is how I run my account as well).

Then, if we do another backtest running systems A and B together on the same account for the same year, wouldnt the total profit still be X + Y units? But because their DD will happen at different times, the maximal DD will be less than the sum of system A and Bs DDs combined.

I think thats the simplest way I can put it, but I still believe Joel is correct. ;)

PS. I think what you referred to was the maximal gain over this period for systems A and B will be less than the sum of maximal gain of these systems combined, which is true. But in terms of the total profit at the end of the period, it really is just the profits of the two systems added together. :)
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 07:07:53 PM by ccjhuang »

Offline taipan888

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #475 on: September 14, 2019, 09:51:49 PM »
Hmm...I am pretty sure if Joel was able to develop these great EAs using his knowledge in statistics and probability, he wont make a simple calculation error like that...

Lets say we have 2 profitable systems, A and B.

And when we do a backtest, system A makes X units in a given year, and system B makes Y units in the same year. For simplicity we will assume the backtests were done using Fixed Lots (which is how I run my account as well).

Then, if we do another backtest running systems A and B together on the same account for the same year, wouldnt the total profit still be X + Y units? But because their DD will happen at different times, the maximal DD will be less than the sum of system A and Bs DDs combined.

I think thats the simplest way I can put it, but I still believe Joel is correct. ;)

PS. I think what you referred to was the maximal gain over this period for systems A and B will be less than the sum of maximal gain of these systems combined, which is true. But in terms of the total profit at the end of the period, it really is just the profits of the two systems added together. :)
Your example is not in the statistical sense. In the statistical sense the trades of X and Y may be triggered by the same event, and close at almost the same time with X gaining and Y losing. Therefore, after merge Avergae Profit (X+Y) is in general less than Average Profit (X) + Average Profit (Y). Your example assumes that the trades of X and Y never overlap. This is only true in independent backtests with X and Y.

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #476 on: September 14, 2019, 11:21:39 PM »
Well the SFE EAs do trade independently from each other and it is true that their trades dont overlap. And if we use Fixed Lot sizes for each EA I really dont see why the total profit wont be X + Y if you run them on the same account for the same given period. ???

Perhaps someone can run a backtest using 2 SFE EAs to verify my point...? ::)

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #477 on: September 15, 2019, 11:45:50 AM »
Ok, I have put your question to Joel the vendor and below is his response. I hope it makes sense to you and I will just end the debate here. :)

Next is my explanation, the point is that he talked about 'max' profit, and obviously I didn't said that the final profit is the sum of 'max' profits:

As an example, and assuming a fixed size of the trades:

If in the backtest the DD of the system A is for example 300$, and you want to fix the DD to 30%, then you need 1000$ of balance.

And if the system B is the same, DD of 300$, you need 1000$ for the system B for fix a 30% DD.

But if you use A+B and you apply the same criteria, have max. 30% DD, you don't need 1000+1000=2000$, becuase the probability that the 300+300 DD happens at the same moment if very low. Then, this depends of the correlation between strategies, and then you can do a merged bactkest an if the result is for example that max DD with A+B has been 450$, then, for fix the DD at 30%, you need 450/0.3 = 1500 $ instead of 2000 $.

And at same time, the 'total' profit (I didn't say the maximum profit) at the end of a period X or at the end of the backtest, is obviously the sum of the profit of the system A + system B at this date. And for reach this profit, you have only used 1500$ instead of 2000$. This is the final conclusion, that if your system A needs 1000$ and your system B needs 1000$, for use both with the same risk criteria (30% of the balance), you 'only' need 1500$, not 2000$, and you are still gaining the profit A + profit B, this is, the same profit using less $ of balance, then a better yield of the inversion.

Anyway, the document I wrote some years ago, some of the new EAs doesn't exist at that moment, then, I will do a global backtest soon to update my conclusions about the % of the EAs and which of them are more or less correlated.

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #478 on: September 16, 2019, 12:49:53 AM »
SFE Combo has just cracked Top 10 at Signal Start! 8)



Ok, I know that their ranking system is a bit dodgy, and most of the top systems just abuse the stats by only doing very little trades to keep the numbers up. But to be able to be ranked in Top 10 after over 11K trades, I think is still quite an achievement in itself. ;)

Online ccjhuang

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Re: SFE Price Action EA
« Reply #479 on: September 16, 2019, 01:36:12 PM »
Hi Guys,

I don't have too many active trades left now, so I have decided to change the lots sizes on my account now before the market gets volatile this week.

So as I have mentioned before, my account will now be running the following lot sizes:

SFE Price Action - 0.6 Fixed Lot per trade
SFE Attractor - 0.6 Fixed Lot per trade
SFE EURUSD - 1.0 Fixed Lot per trade
SFE Night Scalper - 0.9 Fixed Lot per trade


Given my account is now sitting at around $100K, this setting is roughly equivalent to 1.5x recommended risk. I believe it is now be safe for subscribers to use a risk multiplier of 1, because with recommended risk the max DD is usually between 20-30%, so at 1.5x recommended risk the max expected DD should be no more than 30-45%.

However for those who are more conservative, you can always use a lower risk multiplier. :)

There is a lot of price action and volatility expected this week, and it will be interesting to see if we can finally get a big breakout on EU and other major pairs. ;)
« Last Edit: September 16, 2019, 02:16:26 PM by ccjhuang »

 

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