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Author Topic: Bitcoin Discussion  (Read 184570 times)

Offline pinoytrader

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Bitcoin Discussion
« on: August 02, 2017, 09:03:20 AM »
its a btc craze going on with brokers, from actually trading it to treating it as a currency interms of withdrawals and deposits, its gonna be messy but exciting.

Offline donalduck

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2017, 09:29:38 AM »
Can we trade Bitcoin in this broker?

Yes you can they just have started to offer BTC pairs. For now its only BTCUSD and BTCEUR.

Bitcoin is mainstream now and we can see it everywhere but is its value keep strong like this forever? Should I sell on BTC ?

Offline Trunk

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2017, 09:41:00 AM »
Not now maybe in future when official alternative will be invented that will replace money. For now its usage will only expand so is the price.

Offline CanadianPsycho

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2017, 05:04:35 PM »
Not now maybe in future when official alternative will be invented that will replace money. For now its usage will only expand so is the price.

I've been in Bitcoin since $17. Here's a hint for you; it's specifically a replacement for what you're describing. It's not going away.

Offline Trunk

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2017, 08:44:08 PM »
Yeah I agree but remember to not confuse blockchain from bitcoin. Its just another cryptocurrency from dozens of others. Just it was adopted first and now grows thanks to speculations

Offline CanadianPsycho

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2017, 09:37:16 PM »
Yeah I agree but remember to not confuse blockchain from bitcoin. Its just another cryptocurrency from dozens of others. Just it was adopted first and now grows thanks to speculations

Yes, I've been in this space since 2012 and have been involved with a number of blockchain projects. I've done corporate consulting and educational work on the topic as well. Any questions, feel free to ask.

Offline pinoytrader

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2017, 01:19:11 PM »
hi there CP, honestly most of us or mostly likely I my self am in the dark with BTC in general. would you say it would still graw in price, i mean its somewhere between 2800-3500 pero coin, is it sustainable and would it still continue to grow. there are some times in the past where i would read about it hitting 1k per coin and now all of sudden its at 3500 or something.

Offline Adrian the Sun

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2017, 01:59:08 PM »
Yeah I agree but remember to not confuse blockchain from bitcoin. Its just another cryptocurrency from dozens of others. Just it was adopted first and now grows thanks to speculations

Yes, I've been in this space since 2012 and have been involved with a number of blockchain projects. I've done corporate consulting and educational work on the topic as well. Any questions, feel free to ask.

I hope you took some bitcoins on hold at that time 8)

Offline pinoytrader

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2017, 11:14:44 AM »
i was thinking the same thing, like some trends on social media comparing the bitcoin prices from a couple of years back. oh well who would have known anyway.

Offline CanadianPsycho

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2017, 03:32:21 PM »
hi there CP, honestly most of us or mostly likely I my self am in the dark with BTC in general. would you say it would still graw in price, i mean its somewhere between 2800-3500 pero coin, is it sustainable and would it still continue to grow. there are some times in the past where i would read about it hitting 1k per coin and now all of sudden its at 3500 or something.

Sorry, didn't notice your question.

While it may seem outlandish, it's not at all unimaginable to me to see Bitcoin hit $1,000,000 per Bitcoin. I'm relatively sure that before that happens, other crypto currencies will see high values (Ethereum is a good example of a challenger in the space) as well though. But why such a crazy million dollar valuation? Why would I say something like that?

Cryptocurrency is a new asset class. I remember reading old forum posts from even before I was involved, of forum users on BitcoinTalk dot org saying "It hit $5. Sell everything now. Don't be a fool!" What these people fundamentally fail to understand is why Bitcoin is a functional money, and also the difference between monies and currencies. Bitcoin is a functional money, and because it's a functional money that has an effective arbitraging cost of basically zero it is very attractive over the long term for wealth storage in much the same way that gold and silver are attractive for same.

I remember talking to Raul Pal about this. Take it from the legendary fund manager. If Bitcoin captures just a small portion of the gold market, it's value is massive. The estimated value of all gold mined in the world is something like 7.5 Trillion USD. If Bitcoin captures 10% of that, that's $750 Billion, right? Honestly, if it captures 10%, I think it'l go to 100% but slightly different discussion.

At $750 billion in overall value just replacing that 10% of the gold market, and at maximum supply of 21 million units (there are 16.5 million Bitcoin is circulation right now) that would be $35,000 per Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is also, in theory, a functional currency as well. Should it mature into a scalable currency that is useful in broad markets, let's say it captures 10% of the global money market. That one's harder to estimate because we don't know how much money actually exists. Estimates on the value of derivatives markets alone range between 600 and 1.3 Quadrillion trillion USD. It's insane...so let's just say that Bitcoin potentially captures 100 Trillion of the global money market.

At 21 million max circulating supply, that is roughly $4.6 million per Bitcoin.

An important thing to remember about Bitcoin is that "one Bitcoin" is a fairly arbitrary measure. Bitcoin is presently divisible to 8 decimal places, so each Bitcoin is actually a total of 100,000,000 sub units referred to as Satoshis. When we think of a Bitcoin's value in terms of "one Bitcoin" we're actually playing into a psychological stumbling block. I've long advocated that Bitcoin be referred to in terms of its sub unit, but the market has instead desired to value Bitcoin with 8 decimal places behind it. In any case, this really trips a lot of people up. I remember talking to people who told when Bitcoin was at about $100, that they hopes it would stop there and stabilize. I just laughed over that because at that time, Bitcoin would just have had a bunch of useless decimal places.

Anyhow, I'm going off on a tangent. Something else important to note is that many Bitcoin have actually be removed from circulation and so, take away from the available supply which means there is less opportunity to sell into the market to suppress prices. The creator of Bitcoin, whoever he/they are, are thought to have lost access to their Bitcoin which amounts to roughly 1 million Bitcoin or so.

So...bottom line. How much can a Bitcoin possibly be worth? Is $4,000 realistic? In my eyes, this is cheap. All cryptocurrencies in existence are worth roughly $144 Billion today in total market capitalization. While there are competitors to Bitcoin, there are also unique use cases that present new avenues of disruption of markets via cryptocurrency. I expect the entire space to someday dominate financial markets. I've been laughed at all the way from 2012 and told that all of this is nothing more than a bubble and all through it, I've only seen people fail to grasp the use cases for crypto currency.

All of this has a loooong way to go.

Online reinerh

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2017, 04:16:21 PM »
canadian,

while i agree with you on your valuation explanation to quite some extent.

the day will come and the gov will declare war on it. in form of reporting for tax reasons. that will put a huge kink into the rise for sure.

also what i have a huge beef with its not touchable. which is good in a way, no storing required.
but its also hackable and i think always be.
so one day you have your bitcoin, next day they are gone bye bye.

that has happened many times already.

so how can you trust something like that ? i think its a bubble, period.

but i also dont trust fiat of course.

Offline CanadianPsycho

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2017, 04:36:25 PM »
Well, no. No one has ever hacked Bitcoin. Just as gold has been robbed from banks, Bitcoin has been stolen from Bitcoin exchanges, but it's never been hacked. This is a repetitive fallacy born of ignorance of the technology. No offence intended by the way. I know that can sound abrasive, but it's not meant to be.

Every technology is theoretically hackable but as far as encryption theory goes, Bitcoin is among the least hackable technologies that exists. Banking infrastructure is far more hackable, and presently far more valuable which is why 1) only Bitcoin exchanges have ever been hacked (they're more vulnerable than blockchains by an almost unimaginable margin) and 2) why the SWIFT system ha been hacked multiple times resulting in thefts of tens of millions of dollars from the banking system.

As for government declaring war, this has already happened here and there and it's a fruitless mission. Declaring war on peer to peer money is destined to be as effective as declaring war on peer to peer file sharing. That hasn't worked out so well. I think governments see this. For instance, I recently wrote an analysis of a Bank of canada research paper from 2016 by Warren Weber. The research paper speculated on the tenability of a Bitcoin Standard for government currency and it's very insightful. The Canadian Senate just a couple of years ago was hosting Bitcoin luminaries in committee meetings to understand more about it, and recieved Bitcoin as an idea in a very open fashion, in part because Senators openly acknowledged that trying to prevent the technology seemed like a bad idea.

As for it not being touchable...that's kind of ironic seeing as we're posting on a FX trading forum here, but I'm happy to respond to that. There's nothing wrong with wanting something touchable, but as far as digital information goes, blockchains are likely the most durable form of digital information in existence. Blockchains are simply digital ledger books that exist as distributed copies all over the world. To destroy a blockchain, you'll have to see a global crisis that destroys all computers and electronic infrastructure. Such a doomsday scenario may well come and in that case, I'll be happy I have gold and silver, but i don't think that scenario is all that likely. So, I'm not betting on it.

Is it a bubble? No. I'm sorry but this is what I've been hearing for years now and it's from people like you who say things like Bitcoin is hackable. I'm afraid you just do not understand why this is an emergent asset class, nor why it has increased in value thus far. Bitcoin was a breakthrough in the field of computer science. It was the first example of using distributed consensus to solve the byzantine generals problem which had persisted for over 30 years. If you do not understand why Blockchains are massively disruptive to how we manage databases of value, then it's no wonder that you think this is a bubble.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 04:47:15 PM by CanadianPsycho »

Offline CanadianPsycho

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2017, 04:37:08 PM »
Oh, and one of the primary reasons I like cryptocurrency is because i don't like fiat. Crypto currency is not fiat. If you think it is, you misunderstand what fiat is. Consult the dictionary. ;)

Decided to split this topic rather than hijack a broker's thread. Sorry for any confusion folks.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 04:41:27 PM by CanadianPsycho »

Offline Trunk

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2017, 08:40:38 AM »
Well, no. No one has ever hacked Bitcoin. Just as gold has been robbed from banks, Bitcoin has been stolen from Bitcoin exchanges, but it's never been hacked. This is a repetitive fallacy born of ignorance of the technology. No offence intended by the way. I know that can sound abrasive, but it's not meant to be.

Every technology is theoretically hackable but as far as encryption theory goes, Bitcoin is among the least hackable technologies that exists. Banking infrastructure is far more hackable, and presently far more valuable which is why 1) only Bitcoin exchanges have ever been hacked (they're more vulnerable than blockchains by an almost unimaginable margin) and 2) why the SWIFT system ha been hacked multiple times resulting in thefts of tens of millions of dollars from the banking system.

As for government declaring war, this has already happened here and there and it's a fruitless mission. Declaring war on peer to peer money is destined to be as effective as declaring war on peer to peer file sharing. That hasn't worked out so well. I think governments see this. For instance, I recently wrote an analysis of a Bank of canada research paper from 2016 by Warren Weber. The research paper speculated on the tenability of a Bitcoin Standard for government currency and it's very insightful. The Canadian Senate just a couple of years ago was hosting Bitcoin luminaries in committee meetings to understand more about it, and recieved Bitcoin as an idea in a very open fashion, in part because Senators openly acknowledged that trying to prevent the technology seemed like a bad idea.

As for it not being touchable...that's kind of ironic seeing as we're posting on a FX trading forum here, but I'm happy to respond to that. There's nothing wrong with wanting something touchable, but as far as digital information goes, blockchains are likely the most durable form of digital information in existence. Blockchains are simply digital ledger books that exist as distributed copies all over the world. To destroy a blockchain, you'll have to see a global crisis that destroys all computers and electronic infrastructure. Such a doomsday scenario may well come and in that case, I'll be happy I have gold and silver, but i don't think that scenario is all that likely. So, I'm not betting on it.

Is it a bubble? No. I'm sorry but this is what I've been hearing for years now and it's from people like you who say things like Bitcoin is hackable. I'm afraid you just do not understand why this is an emergent asset class, nor why it has increased in value thus far. Bitcoin was a breakthrough in the field of computer science. It was the first example of using distributed consensus to solve the byzantine generals problem which had persisted for over 30 years. If you do not understand why Blockchains are massively disruptive to how we manage databases of value, then it's no wonder that you think this is a bubble.

Its just the first blockchain based currency. The rule of nature: who's first gets most attention. Nothing unusual in bitcoin but blockain technology in itself is a breakthrough. Let's don't mix it up. Governments don't ban btc because they want community to work and polish the technology for free, based on open interest. Till it takes the shape of something that can be harnessed for government needs.
And there is Streisand effect in place.

Offline pinoytrader

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Re: Bitcoin Discussion
« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2017, 10:23:41 AM »
thanks cp, things are a bit clearer but i guess im one of them that would need more time to actually get a good grasp on this, though it pretty much reassuring it wont stop at 4k/btc, it will go higher not too long we will see BTC at 10,000 and maybe evne go higher than that, its just the start.

 

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