collapse

Author Topic: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS  (Read 22847 times)

Online nwboater

  • DonbonsPrivateGroup
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1856
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #60 on: March 12, 2019, 05:11:05 PM »
Grounding all bots until after the Brexit craft has landed! What say you?  :-\


Regards,
HumbleTrader

Mine are off until I feel things are a little more stable.

Cheers,
Rod

Any theories why the EURUSD is rising, when the "uncertainty" would have it go south? Don't tell me they are awaiting a "YES" vote and all will be friends again?  :-*


A little birdie is singing outside my window, "short at 1.3000", twit-twit-twit! ;)

Regards,
HumbleTrader

I don't have a clue, but suggest you be careful with the birdcalls! :)

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1655
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #61 on: March 12, 2019, 05:16:53 PM »
Grounding all bots until after the Brexit craft has landed! What say you?  :-\


Regards,
HumbleTrader

Mine are off until I feel things are a little more stable.

Cheers,
Rod

Any theories why the EURUSD is rising, when the "uncertainty" would have it go south? Don't tell me they are awaiting a "YES" vote and all will be friends again?  :-*




A little birdie is singing outside my window, "short at 1.3000", twit-twit-twit! ;)

Regards,
HumbleTrader

I don't have a clue, but suggest you be careful with the birdcalls! :)

Now I know why this song, it drank some of the Irish suds I through out the window;  that green stuff has an effect on small birds. LOl :P


Now I see an "Emerging Black Swan" in the woods near by... Walter, what say you? ... boy that stuff is heavy> LOL

Regards,
HumbleTrader
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 05:19:47 PM by Humble Trader's Fx »
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1655
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #62 on: March 12, 2019, 08:19:39 PM »
Grounding all bots until after the Brexit craft has landed! What say you?  :-\


Regards,
HumbleTrader

Mine are off until I feel things are a little more stable.

Cheers,
Rod

Any theories why the EURUSD is rising, when the "uncertainty" would have it go south? Don't tell me they are awaiting a "YES" vote and all will be friends again?  :-*




A little birdie is singing outside my window, "short at 1.3000", twit-twit-twit! ;)

Regards,
HumbleTrader

I don't have a clue, but suggest you be careful with the birdcalls! :)

Now I know why this song, it drank some of the Irish suds I through out the window;  that green stuff has an effect on small birds. LOl :P


Now I see an "Emerging Black Swan" in the woods near by... Walter, what say you? ... boy that stuff is heavy> LOL

Regards,
HumbleTrader

One "deal" is out with Brexit, and another "deal" is coming from  Beijing. Truly, I see it in my crystal ball.  :)

Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Offline Hilapur

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 43
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #63 on: March 20, 2019, 03:42:05 PM »
Market usually dont have some significant reaction on FEDs Governors speeches, except in cases that they say something really significant and relatively unknown to markets. Both Quarles and Powell usually are reserved with statements, so some significant market moves should not be expected

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1655
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #64 on: April 10, 2019, 02:24:15 PM »
It is almost a certainty, that whenever Draghi speaks, the EUR falls; can we take that to the bank?


Look at today's results. ;)

Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Offline outsidetheboxhk

  • PAMM Fund Manager and Trade Copy Provider
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 341
  • Learn from your mistakes and do not give up!
    • Signal Start
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #65 on: April 10, 2019, 03:54:44 PM »
It is almost a certainty, that whenever Draghi speaks, the EUR falls; can we take that to the bank?

Look at today's results. ;)

Regards,
HumbleTrader

I like the way you think.  I like the curiosity you have.  It's good to ponder these things.  These relationships, the factors, the influences.  The cross currents.  The correlations.  Thanks for all your cool contributions to this forum, and I hope that my medium and low risk strategies will continue their ever-upwards trajectory, and as far as the challenges to my high risk and ultra high risk strategies over the past 3 months, I just want to make sure the public knows that I am determined to tweak these into "well calibrated ATM machines" too.

This has been my ever present quest, and I'm not done yet.
--------------------------------------------------
Copy or Invest in my Strategy

SignalStart
SimpleTrader

----------------------------------------------------
Follow Outside the Box HK on

Instagram
TRADINGVIEW

Offline y5nitro

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 55
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #66 on: May 24, 2019, 01:19:38 PM »
Humble, the difference is that Draghi is a president of ECB and Quarles and Powell are Governors, so there are different market reactions on their statements. I remember when Greenspan was FED chair, market was reacting whenever he caught, let along to say something

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1655
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #67 on: August 04, 2020, 07:02:17 PM »
Can anyone give us some input on how the stock markets are going up while gold, a sign of global insecurity against the dollar, has just hit more than 2k?

My hypothesis is that all these dollars being printed by the trillions by the Fed are not going towards any help of the average American but towards the upper class, who have the capital to invest and make gains in the stock market. Is there a bubble of sort building, one or the other, gold or the global market, will eventually reverse Big time; possibly a world recession never has seen before.

What say you?
Oh, Trump just called me and said, "All is fantastic, all is tremendous. Like the virus, everything is under control.", just vote for him in November. ::)

Regards,
HumbleTrader
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 07:21:46 PM by Humble Trader's Fx »
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Offline peter_s

  • DonbonsPrivateGroup
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1167
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #68 on: August 04, 2020, 09:49:32 PM »
Can anyone give us some input on how the stock markets are going up while gold, a sign of global insecurity against the dollar, has just hit more than 2k?

My hypothesis is that all these dollars being printed by the trillions by the Fed are not going towards any help of the average American but towards the upper class, who have the capital to invest and make gains in the stock market. Is there a bubble of sort building, one or the other, gold or the global market, will eventually reverse Big time; possibly a world recession never has seen before.

What say you?
Oh, Trump just called me and said, "All is fantastic, all is tremendous. Like the virus, everything is under control.", just vote for him in November. ::)

Regards,
HumbleTrader

Predictions are that gold will hit 2200 near term and is being driven by the dollar collapse ( gold usually rises when USD sinks), COVID, and geopolitical uncertainty/threats.  It is bizarre that a pretty useless (compared to platinum etc) lump of metal can command such crazy valuations, but as a chosen global bank 'reserve' it is not likely to change any time soon. The big unknown is what the dollar will do with so much debt hanging over the US; and IF it loses world reserve status (very unlikely) the US will be facing serious inflation, with the possibility of much higher gold prices.

Robinhood (US-based commission-free investment app) is driving some crazy valuations in the tech stocks - one trillion $ market caps seemed optimistic 10 years ago, and now we have several approaching 2 trillion with forward PE's at well over 100! This pandemic appears to have highlighted those industries which are going to do well and prosper, and those techs that provide remote working /shopping/communications look like long term winners..the world has changed for good in terms of remote working. The question is what is a fair valuation in all this chaos - probably not what we are currently seeing!

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1655
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #69 on: August 04, 2020, 10:02:47 PM »
Can anyone give us some input on how the stock markets are going up while gold, a sign of global insecurity against the dollar, has just hit more than 2k?

My hypothesis is that all these dollars being printed by the trillions by the Fed are not going towards any help of the average American but towards the upper class, who have the capital to invest and make gains in the stock market. Is there a bubble of sort building, one or the other, gold or the global market, will eventually reverse Big time; possibly a world recession never has seen before.

What say you?
Oh, Trump just called me and said, "All is fantastic, all is tremendous. Like the virus, everything is under control.", just vote for him in November. ::)

Regards,
HumbleTrader

Predictions are that gold will hit 2200 near term and is being driven by the dollar collapse ( gold usually rises when USD sinks), COVID, and geopolitical uncertainty/threats.  It is bizarre that a pretty useless (compared to platinum etc) lump of metal can command such crazy valuations, but as a chosen global bank 'reserve' it is not likely to change any time soon. The big unknown is what the dollar will do with so much debt hanging over the US; and IF it loses world reserve status (very unlikely) the US will be facing serious inflation, with the possibility of much higher gold prices.

Robinhood (US-based commission-free investment app) is driving some crazy valuations in the tech stocks - one trillion $ market caps seemed optimistic 10 years ago, and now we have several approaching 2 trillion with forward PE's at well over 100! This pandemic appears to have highlighted those industries which are going to do well and prosper, and those techs that provide remote working /shopping/communications look like long term winners..the world has changed for good in terms of remote working. The question is what is a fair valuation in all this chaos - probably not what we are currently seeing!

What you state makes a lot of sense. I might take issue with your comment, "IF it loses world reserve status (very unlikely) ".
China and Russia have been working hard to take that US privilege. One strategy they have been using over the years is stockpiling gold. I don't know how and I would like your input in this. Could such massive gold holdings, pull the rug under the US and pressure other signatories to the Bretton Woods Agreement and System to pull out?

Regards,
HumbleTrader
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 12:21:59 AM by Humble Trader's Fx »
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Offline peter_s

  • DonbonsPrivateGroup
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1167
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #70 on: August 05, 2020, 09:56:06 AM »
Hi Humble - the reason for stating unlikely anytime soon in terms of US losing its reserve currency status is that global banks currently hold $trillions worth of the stuff, and the fact that its economy has proved incredibly resilient to any shocks - including COVID - just think Apple alone is approaching $2 trillion value or greater than the size of Russia's economy!  The US has only held its reserve currency role since WW2 when it was one of the few countries not to be bankrupted by war - previously the reserve WAS gold and the GBP, so things can change. The Bretton Woods agreement after WW2 promised that the US would hold large amounts of gold to match its new world reserve dollar status, but since the 70's this has crumbled with less and less being held in the US and, as you highlight other countries may hold more. So the dollar is no longer supported by gold and with the country in $24 trillion ish in debt things don't look good.  Up until now, the economy and cheap debt has held things in check, so the BIG question is how the impact of COVID will impact things longer term. The irony is that the US may actually benefit by not holding reserve status, and allowing the currency to go into freefall and making its industry more competitive abroad.

Offline Price Pays

  • No custom title :)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2052
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #71 on: August 05, 2020, 10:25:19 AM »
Can anyone give us some input on how the stock markets are going up while gold, a sign of global insecurity against the dollar, has just hit more than 2k?

Very simple. The market is a discounting mechanism. The current turbulence are ignored and those who do not trade price but their opinion get stopped out again and again, thus driving prices even higher.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 12:23:16 PM by Humble Trader's Fx »
Only price pays!

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1655
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #72 on: August 05, 2020, 12:01:36 PM »
Hi Humble - the reason for stating unlikely anytime soon in terms of US losing its reserve currency status is that global banks currently hold $trillions worth of the stuff, and the fact that its economy has proved incredibly resilient to any shocks - including COVID - just think Apple alone is approaching $2 trillion value or greater than the size of Russia's economy!  The US has only held its reserve currency role since WW2 when it was one of the few countries not to be bankrupted by war - previously the reserve WAS gold and the GBP, so things can change. The Bretton Woods agreement after WW2 promised that the US would hold large amounts of gold to match its new world reserve dollar status, but since the 70's this has crumbled with less and less being held in the US and, as you highlight other countries may hold more. So the dollar is no longer supported by gold and with the country in $24 trillion ish in debt things don't look good.  Up until now, the economy and cheap debt has held things in check, so the BIG question is how the impact of COVID will impact things longer term. The irony is that the US may actually benefit by not holding reserve status, and allowing the currency to go into freefall and making its industry more competitive abroad.

"The irony is that the US may actually benefit by not holding reserve status, and allowing the currency to go into freefall and making its industry more competitive abroad."


It's already in the works: Look at the latest news regarding the Fed. They are planning to freeze interest rates at zero as long as inflation is less than two percent. In a way, they are signalling they are giving up in protecting "the mighty" dollar.... Gold anyone? 8)

Trump is probably going to lose his "golden" hair and go bald soon, seeing his prized store, the dollar is sinking along with his ego.

Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Offline Humble Trader's Fx

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1655
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #73 on: August 05, 2020, 12:25:07 PM »
Can anyone give us some input on how the stock markets are going up while gold, a sign of global insecurity against the dollar, has just hit more than 2k?

Very simple. The market is a discounting mechanism. The current turbulence are ignored and those who do not trade price but their opinion get stopped out again and again, thus driving prices even higher.

You make a valid point but I doubt if it is that simple.

Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.

Offline peter_s

  • DonbonsPrivateGroup
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1167
Re: FROM THE MOUTHS OF TROUBLEMAKERS
« Reply #74 on: August 05, 2020, 12:44:41 PM »
This guy seems to have things pretty much right with a macroeconomic outlook, and has been long on gold for most of the year...he provides an entertaining monthly briefing in the community thread, and has a surprisingly low investment compared to others on the site....

https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/SKI

https://community.darwinex.com/t/ski-stokesbay-macro-investing/5970/38




 

browse forum

* Recent Posts

Re: forex cyborg by Humble Trader's Fx
[Yesterday at 11:59:00 PM]


Re: EUR/USD by Eliza Abrams
[Yesterday at 02:53:03 PM]


Re: EUR/USD by fxopen78
[Yesterday at 01:11:45 AM]


Re: EUR/USD by Eliza Abrams
[September 17, 2020, 03:18:33 PM]


Re: FX Autotrader Elite by diyforexskills
[September 17, 2020, 09:43:34 AM]


Re: Spread is king? by reinerh
[September 16, 2020, 06:52:33 PM]


Re: EUR/USD by Eliza Abrams
[September 16, 2020, 02:47:52 PM]


Re: EURAUD by drunkfx
[September 16, 2020, 05:14:11 AM]


Re: economic news in MT5 by drunkfx
[September 16, 2020, 05:12:27 AM]


Re: Spread is king? by drunkfx
[September 16, 2020, 05:07:14 AM]