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Author Topic: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File  (Read 14341 times)

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #105 on: August 28, 2018, 06:38:38 AM »
the limitation here is using BB on a short time frame so your entry level can often be bad -- thats why the SL and TP and the trailing are so important to try to lock in profits and let them build.

Im using much more advanced thinking towards EAs now so hopefully it pays off LOL
OK, I will also try one other variation using the TM. Set the TP to be taken by RSI 14 level. Above 70 for Buy TP; below 35 for Sell TP. Looks interesting on visual back test. With this exit mode we don't need a SL since the "TP" will usually be positive but sometimes negative if trend on M15 is strong and hence RSI stays high or low. So I will place a 200 pip "just in case" SL.

Should be fun to watch.

Ok, we have now had a Sell trade that closed when RSI 14 on the M15 chart fell below 35 - for a loss of 38 pips. The trade had been at loss of -70 at worst. So would have closed at -50 pips in my other test in which TP is set to 100 and SL to 50 with BE and TS disabled. So this time an RSI close is slightly better. Of course if the EURUSD keeps falling, then the original SET file SL of 100, TP 70 may well prove the winner.

Anyway, just wanted to show how the RSI exit works. Not quite the way we want it to, but unavoidable with this exit strategy.

PS In chart, the Controller is shown but it is only functioning as a on-chart indicator (signalling is disabled).
« Last Edit: August 28, 2018, 06:40:23 AM by diyforexskills »

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #106 on: August 28, 2018, 08:34:14 AM »
Another interesting aspect of running these five different exit strategies for the same EA is that we are now getting entries at different price levels/touches of the BB bands since trades are being closed at different prices.

So we have the possibility of getting better, or worse entries I guess, hopefully with a bias to the better. So a portfolio of the same EA but with different exit strategies.

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #107 on: August 30, 2018, 06:02:38 AM »
Early results

Less than a week of testing, so can't draw any conclusions as yet. But I have added two extra variations today using the TM and the results for the first five are as shown. (Magic 567892 is at loss but there is a B and a S still open and both are in profit.)

ATR14 on the Daily is down to 77 so with ATR based TP and SL and multiples of 0.7 and 1.0, these exit levels are lower than what they would be with the default settings of 70 and 100 pips (about 54 and 77). This variability in daily range is one of the main aspects of this strategy being tested.

Note also that we are focusing on the exit strategy in these tests, rather than the entry strategy. However, when we change the exit in a BB strategy, we also impact on where on the BB the entry point of the next trade will be.

http://diytrademanagerplus.com/
« Last Edit: August 30, 2018, 07:20:11 AM by diyforexskills »

Offline donbon2

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #108 on: August 30, 2018, 09:58:19 AM »
just needs more time and trades to really see
Broker - IC Markets   VPS - Amazon EC2 + CNS  

EA:
Powerflow NZDCAD AUDUSD
PZ Hedging EA - PZ Averaging EA - PZ Grid

(on hold  Wall St Evo - VF2 - Best Scalper - Best Free Scalper)

News - Thomson Reuters Eikon
Trade Manager - Visual Trading Console for MT4
Trading Rebates - through CashBackFX
Trade Notification EA - TradeTalk from FX Blue - free
VPS - I recommend Amazon EC2 - if you qualify for a Broker Sponsored one get CNS
PZ Support/Resistance Indicator

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #109 on: August 31, 2018, 06:08:06 AM »
Yes, way too early to judge. Need a few months. But a nice start. If only....

On this $5K demo account with 0.1 lot sizes for all trades, each of the 7 strategies is at about 2% risk. So 14% overall; but then again trades are usually fully hedged so the size of the risk is less of a concern.

Note that the strategy with the 50% partial close on loss at -50 pips, magic 567895, has a negative net pips but is profitable; and even with only a 40% win rate strategies are profitable.

Certainly would not mind a 46% pm return!!   :)

Anyone want to deposit $20K on these results? Only joking..... but hey it's Friday so time to relax ;D

Offline donbon2

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #110 on: August 31, 2018, 06:58:50 AM »
yeah thats the thing with it -- it is a bit streaky ... lets see in 3 months
Broker - IC Markets   VPS - Amazon EC2 + CNS  

EA:
Powerflow NZDCAD AUDUSD
PZ Hedging EA - PZ Averaging EA - PZ Grid

(on hold  Wall St Evo - VF2 - Best Scalper - Best Free Scalper)

News - Thomson Reuters Eikon
Trade Manager - Visual Trading Console for MT4
Trading Rebates - through CashBackFX
Trade Notification EA - TradeTalk from FX Blue - free
VPS - I recommend Amazon EC2 - if you qualify for a Broker Sponsored one get CNS
PZ Support/Resistance Indicator

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #111 on: September 04, 2018, 07:13:45 AM »
Short term update

All going along nicely. Now with 8 different exit strategies by using the DIY Trade Manager Plus. So we often have 16 open trades, fully hedged, in profit.

So just a waiting game to see how it all pans out after three months.

http://diytrademanagerplus.com/

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #112 on: September 04, 2018, 08:12:29 AM »
Short term update

All going along nicely. Now with 8 different exit strategies by using the DIY Trade Manager Plus. So we often have 16 open trades, fully hedged, in profit.

So just a waiting game to see how it all pans out after three months.

http://diytrademanagerplus.com/

A note of caution

In this test we are running 8 strategies each at about 2% risk. Usually pretty well hedged and as long as price oscillates we should be OK.
But need to remember that Buys are triggered when price touches the lower Bollinger Band; and Sell when price touches the upper BB.

So now consider what would happen if Draghi made some wildly unexpected statement like he did in 2011 I think (I lost 30 grand with a marty EA) and price fell like a rocket. Price would then hug the lower BB and a new Buy trade would follow each Buy loss - all 8 of them in my case. And that could roll on for a while when trading on the M15. There would be no hedging since price would not touch the upper BB for quite a while.

So if we were to run anything like this on a live account we would do well to have an equity control EA on such an account; maybe something like the PZ Equity Guard (free).

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #113 on: September 05, 2018, 03:29:22 AM »
Zooming along

I was a bit worried yesterday in case the EU kept dropping. But it swung back a bit and so this EA in its 8 versions, is still doing well at 45% pm (8x2=16% risk). Currently $140 in floating profit (15 open trades).

Magic 567893 is the leader and it is the one that is closest to donbon2's optimised set file. Only difference is that instead of the hard TP of 70 and SL of 100, this version has dynamic exits of multiple 0.7 and 1 ATR based on the Daily ATR 14. So when ATR is 100, we have exactly the same exits. Currently ATR 14 on the Daily is 79 and so currently TP is 56 and SL is 79.

The other thing to notice, and what I am hoping will continue, is that the performance profiles of the 8 variations are different (bottom image). So when some win, others will lose, keeping us on a more consistent trajectory, hopefully upwards!

Offline donbon2

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #114 on: September 05, 2018, 04:29:30 AM »
funny after looking through PZ - I actually loaded Equity Guard on one of my accounts - so yes I would also say that this is a way to prevent a complete meltdown.

it makes sense to me that the one closest to my original is doing the best -- the backtests on the original are so good that yeah it just works.

I am slaving away building proper style strategy that isnt limited by a BB still.
Broker - IC Markets   VPS - Amazon EC2 + CNS  

EA:
Powerflow NZDCAD AUDUSD
PZ Hedging EA - PZ Averaging EA - PZ Grid

(on hold  Wall St Evo - VF2 - Best Scalper - Best Free Scalper)

News - Thomson Reuters Eikon
Trade Manager - Visual Trading Console for MT4
Trading Rebates - through CashBackFX
Trade Notification EA - TradeTalk from FX Blue - free
VPS - I recommend Amazon EC2 - if you qualify for a Broker Sponsored one get CNS
PZ Support/Resistance Indicator

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #115 on: September 06, 2018, 12:50:07 AM »
Catching up

The unbelievable run continues - now up at rate of 60% pm. Reality will surely hit before too long.

In the meantime the race is getting tighter. Magics 567896 and 567897 are catching up to Donbon 567893 and have better profit factor. (Feels like a Melbourne Cup coming on!   :)  )

These two upstarts have a 2:1 reward to risk ratio (and 567897 has a partial close of 50% at 50) compared to 567893 which has the 0.7 to 1 reward to risk ratio.

Magic 567891 has an open Buy trade, the only Buy left, with just 5 more pips to close in profit to bring it back to the winning circle at about $120.

The BBs are tight and taut and ready to snap. If it breaks to the upside, the 8 Sell trades will likely meet their doom and we will be full unhedged for a while - margin level currently 420%. The sort of conditions we need to check for robustness.

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #116 on: September 06, 2018, 04:14:20 AM »
Catching up

The unbelievable run continues - now up at rate of 60% pm. Reality will surely hit before too long.

In the meantime the race is getting tighter. Magics 567896 and 567897 are catching up to Donbon 567893 and have better profit factor. (Feels like a Melbourne Cup coming on!   :)  )

These two upstarts have a 2:1 reward to risk ratio (and 567897 has a partial close of 50% at 50) compared to 567893 which has the 0.7 to 1 reward to risk ratio.

Magic 567891 has an open Buy trade, the only Buy left, with just 5 more pips to close in profit to bring it back to the winning circle at about $120.

The BBs are tight and taut and ready to snap. If it breaks to the upside, the 8 Sell trades will likely meet their doom and we will be full unhedged for a while - margin level currently 420%. The sort of conditions we need to check for robustness.

Different Entry levels
(Since previous Post, Magic 567891 closed in profit and we now have 8 Sells)

Because we are running these 8 exit strategies for the same EA, we also get different entry levels as shown in image below. This should help soften any blow we might get if price continues going higher; ie some of the Sell trades might close on SL, but others have a chance of avoiding their SL since their trades were entered later, and higher.

The take home for me is the importance of diversity. Given results so far with magic 567893 being the "optimum" performer, one could just suggest to forget the other 7 and just trade this one with higher risk - eg 0.8 instead of 0.1 lot. If we had done that, than today we would be looking at a DD of over $500 instead of around $200 at this stage. And potentially a loss of $1000 which would bring us back to earth with a resounding thud.

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #117 on: September 08, 2018, 03:35:41 AM »
The Winning Streak Continues... and 2:1 takes a narrow lead over 0.7:1

Still making phenomenal progress at nearly 60% pm. Must come to an end soon one suspects.

One of the key variables I am testing is to see whether moving from a 0.7 to 1 reward to risk ratio (magic 567893) to a 2:1 ratio (magic 567896) would help in profitability over the long term. The short term answer is that this week 2:1 just overtook 0.7:1 in profit and profit factor, even though its winning rate is lower (76% vs 85%).

After last night's drop, we have 8 Buy trades open, some hanging precipitously off the edge, and only one Sell about to hit its TP (margin level for the account is down to 450%). That TP would boost magic 567891 considerably.

Also pleasing to note is that the RSI exit version, magic 567894, is performing quite well with a smooth performance curve compared to more jumpy ones for the others.

The variations in exit strategies for this PZ BB EA are made possible by using the DIY Trade Manager Plus.

http://diytrademanagerplus.com/

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #118 on: September 14, 2018, 08:02:02 AM »
Still in the purple patch...

The profits just keep rolling in. Magics with volatility (ATR-based for TP and SL) settings for this EA are in the lead; using the DIY Trade Manager Plus

Offline diyforexskills

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Re: PZ Bollinger Band EA Set File
« Reply #119 on: September 15, 2018, 04:11:18 AM »
Still in the purple patch...

The profits just keep rolling in. Magics with volatility (ATR-based for TP and SL) settings for this EA are in the lead; using the DIY Trade Manager Plus

And in a bit more detail to show the performance of the individual strategies; profits and losses occur at different times and so keeping the portfolio performance on a more regular path.

The graphs in the first image are those from using the EA Controller just in a monitoring mode - no controlling.

The graph in the second image shows the trade by trade performance of all 8 strategies as monitored by the EA Controller.

It's only been a month, but I am sorely tempted to run magics 567893 to 567897 on my live account. Even though running 8 strategies at 2% risk per trade (total 16%), the maximum open loss I have had was only 6%.

http://exceptionalfx.com/ea-controller/
http://diytrademanagerplus.com/

 

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