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Author Topic: could it be the next financial bubble?  (Read 1754 times)

Offline FLechdrop

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Re: could it be the next financial bubble?
« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2019, 10:04:01 PM »
Everything is possible. Do you think they'd do that though?

If they are pushed to the wall, they might. They might calculate that by dropping this "financial bomb", they might survive the global catastrophe, given that they have a disciplined, centrally managed economy and the west, especially the US does not.


Regards,
HumbleTrader

Interesting proposition. I don't think there is any intention to do so, unless something extreme happens. For now, they need the American imports.

Online Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: could it be the next financial bubble?
« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2019, 01:03:10 AM »
Everything is possible. Do you think they'd do that though?

If they are pushed to the wall, they might. They might calculate that by dropping this "financial bomb", they might survive the global catastrophe, given that they have a disciplined, centrally managed economy and the west, especially the US does not.


Regards,
HumbleTrader

Interesting proposition. I don't think there is any intention to do so, unless something extreme happens. For now, they need the American imports.

Hello, FLechdrop.

Please clarify what imports "category that is".  Certainly, they don't need any US manufactures goods since they manufacture most of the US goods. Perhaps you are referring to agricultural goods but then again, next door to them is the Russian bear with plenty to sell. Or I am way off field and by "imports" you meant, sales to the US? If that is your premise, I think many economist have now declared that the Chinese have as large as a population for personal consumption that they can sustain current levels of employment to keep their economy humming: China shipped 18 percent of its exports to the United States in 2017. That contributed to a $375 billion trade deficit. China's trade with Hong Kong, at 14 percent, was almost as much. despite a forciable downturn on consumption.

I was mostly refferring to the US debt the Chinese hold  and what impact it would have if they decided to stop buying  additional US debt because the internal US public debt consumption has reached a critical mass ( U.S. debt to China is small, only $1.138 trillion as of October 2018. ). The US is already in trillions of debt to it's own citizens for many more trillions ($22 trillion ) but the Chinese, dump will only serve as a trigger which would cause the panic, "the sky is falling"; just like the real estate bubble caused the last recession  :o


Regards,
HumbleTrader



« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 01:15:22 AM by Humble Trader's Fx »
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Offline Loperte

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Re: could it be the next financial bubble?
« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2019, 01:55:24 AM »
I dont understand well the point of the question imposed in this thread. If Disney is a bubble, then what we can say about Amazon who significantly increased profitability and wealth during last year. Many other companies followed, but interestingly tech companies were significantly down

Offline petersurrey

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Re: could it be the next financial bubble?
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2019, 01:54:55 AM »
I dont understand well the point of the question imposed in this thread. If Disney is a bubble, then what we can say about Amazon who significantly increased profitability and wealth during last year. Many other companies followed, but interestingly tech companies were significantly down


I think the question should have been as the next debt timebomb not financial bubble - which we have witnessed repeated times with the US tech stocks - how long can Amazon maintain 100x earnings multiples despite its stratospheric growth and prospects - not forever certainly! But it is in a far better position than the debt-burdened Disney/Comcast and others!

The developed/capitalised world is saddled with multi-trillions worth of debt and it will be very interesting to see how it all plays out...Japan 2-3 times GDP, UK heading that way..US doesn't bare thinking about - and it is all held up by 'confidence' in the country to repay. Who would have thought Greece with government bonds paying 20%a few years ago would have dug itself out of its massive debt hole but it did, so it gives hope to the others I guess....but Europe/US/Japan would find it difficult to survive another 2008 meltdown!

Online Eliza Abrams

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Re: could it be the next financial bubble?
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2019, 03:37:50 PM »
Disney is finalizing their merger with Fox, they don't look like a bubble to me.

Online Humble Trader's Fx

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Re: could it be the next financial bubble?
« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2019, 07:04:27 PM »
I dont understand well the point of the question imposed in this thread. If Disney is a bubble, then what we can say about Amazon who significantly increased profitability and wealth during last year. Many other companies followed, but interestingly tech companies were significantly down


I think the question should have been as the next debt timebomb not financial bubble - which we have witnessed repeated times with the US tech stocks - how long can Amazon maintain 100x earnings multiples despite its stratospheric growth and prospects - not forever certainly! But it is in a far better position than the debt-burdened Disney/Comcast and others!

The developed/capitalised world is saddled with multi-trillions worth of debt and it will be very interesting to see how it all plays out...Japan 2-3 times GDP, UK heading that way..US doesn't bare thinking about - and it is all held up by 'confidence' in the country to repay. Who would have thought Greece with government bonds paying 20%a few years ago would have dug itself out of its massive debt hole but it did, so it gives hope to the others I guess....but Europe/US/Japan would find it difficult to survive another 2008 meltdown!

Greece was fortunate to be part of a larger group, the EU. When the creditors like China, who hold trillions of US debt, come calling, who will bail out the US? Maybe Trump will print some fake US dollars and send it over insistting they are not fake, but real because such promissory notes, have his picture on them of him wearing a cap, "Make America Great Again!". LOL :P


Regards,
HumbleTrader
We humbly approach the Forex Market and take only what is earned through our hard work and intelligence.


Offline FLechdrop

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Re: could it be the next financial bubble?
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2019, 09:04:56 PM »
Everything is possible. Do you think they'd do that though?

If they are pushed to the wall, they might. They might calculate that by dropping this "financial bomb", they might survive the global catastrophe, given that they have a disciplined, centrally managed economy and the west, especially the US does not.


Regards,
HumbleTrader

Interesting proposition. I don't think there is any intention to do so, unless something extreme happens. For now, they need the American imports.

Hello, FLechdrop.

Please clarify what imports "category that is".  Certainly, they don't need any US manufactures goods since they manufacture most of the US goods. Perhaps you are referring to agricultural goods but then again, next door to them is the Russian bear with plenty to sell. Or I am way off field and by "imports" you meant, sales to the US? If that is your premise, I think many economist have now declared that the Chinese have as large as a population for personal consumption that they can sustain current levels of employment to keep their economy humming: China shipped 18 percent of its exports to the United States in 2017. That contributed to a $375 billion trade deficit. China's trade with Hong Kong, at 14 percent, was almost as much. despite a forciable downturn on consumption.

I was mostly refferring to the US debt the Chinese hold  and what impact it would have if they decided to stop buying  additional US debt because the internal US public debt consumption has reached a critical mass ( U.S. debt to China is small, only $1.138 trillion as of October 2018. ). The US is already in trillions of debt to it's own citizens for many more trillions ($22 trillion ) but the Chinese, dump will only serve as a trigger which would cause the panic, "the sky is falling"; just like the real estate bubble caused the last recession  :o


Regards,
HumbleTrader

Sorry, I only just saw your question above. I see I have expressed myself in a less than clear manner. I meant exactly that: the Americans importing Chinese goods. Not vice versa.

My idea is they are not quite ready to cut them out just yet.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 09:07:08 PM by FLechdrop »

Offline drunkfx

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Re: could it be the next financial bubble?
« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2019, 04:52:45 PM »
Chinese exports are in a heavy drawdown because of domestic problems, its not only about US willingness to buy Chinese goods, self-reinforcing slowdown has been already activated in China.

 

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