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Author Topic: DIY Frequent Trader  (Read 3235 times)

Offline diyforexskills

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DIY Frequent Trader
« on: December 31, 2020, 02:48:32 AM »
New signal service to start in 2021

In conjunction with Odysseia Capital, we will shortly be offering the DIY FrequentTrader signal service.

Great Performance with Performance-based Fees

Results from all the development and testing are highly encouraging with an expected monthly return of 5 to 10% per month trading at 0.01 lot per trade with a performance-based subscription fee of 20% above the high-water mark. So you only pay when you have made a profit for the month. The first image below shows the demo test account operating at twice the intended lot size. Hence expectation is for monthly return closer to 10%.  https://www.fxblue.com/users/diyfreqtrader

Flexibility and Options
With ASIC (Australia) joining FCA (UK) and ESMA (Europe) in limiting the leverage brokers can offer retail clients to 1:20 for the minor forex pairs by end March 2021, this signal service is being designed to enable trade copying of all nine pairs to a minimum $5K account set to 1:20 leverage.

Subscribers will have options depending on the account size and/or the leverage they wish to trade.

Subscribers who wish to operate larger accounts and/or operate with brokers offering higher leverage, will be able to adjust the lot size of the trades they receive and hence be able to achieve higher returns. For example, the demo test running since 9 November on a $5K account with double the lot size (0.02 lot) and 1:400 leverage has performed as shown with margin levels always well above 2000%. Maximum open drawdown has not exceeded $1000 during these two months of trading.

Subscribers who wish to operate smaller accounts have two options:
1.   Still trade at 1:20 with an ASIC, ESMA or FCA regulated broker but only trade a few (uncorrelated) pairs. Eg trade on a $2K account but only for USDJPY, GBPCHF and EURAUD
2.   Trade with a broker that still offers 1:400 leverage in which case $2000 would be sufficient.

Portfolio Characteristics
The strategies employed in this portfolio were developed on the FX Autotrader Elite and are all variations on a theme. We recognise that good entries are important but clever and realistic exits are even more important given how chaotic markets are. Consequently, most trades are closed as part of a basket of trades consisting of Initial, Re-entry and judiciously-placed scale-in trades. And we are happy to close at small profits, frequently, rather than agonisingly waiting to see if we can catch a trend. In order to avoid runaway losses, all trades have a maximum life span of 30 H4 bars or 500 M15 bars, roughly equivalent to 5 days of trading; long enough for price to be able to revert near to its mean and hence a close in profit or reduced loss; but not too long to accentuate the loss.

We will generally have an open drawdown (DD) varying anywhere from $50 to $500 on the Master account trading at 0.01 lots. But even as the open DD increases, we continue to close trades in profit building up our Account Balance. Open DDs can rise fast but also decline fast. By the end of the week of 22 December for example on the demo account, open DD fell by 70% from its high. Profit factor has been above 2 for most of the test period as shown in the second image below.

Subscription
The sign-up process is being finalised and will be available early in 2021. We assume that potential subscribers will want to see some period of trading on live before making a commitment. The Master account on live will commence trading on 4 January 2021.

On sign up there will be a quarterly Service fee of USD$5, ie USD$5 every three months billed automatically via PayPal, with Invoices sent on the second day of each month for the 20% of profit above high water mark on the subscribers account. This latter fee will need to be paid within two weeks to ensure continuity of signal.

Inquiries

Pls contact us at info@diyforexskills.com for any further clarification or to register interest.

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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2021, 02:58:03 AM »
A Timely Reminder

One of the issues with portfolios is to avoid excessive correlation or having too many strategies with the same symbol. By running the test of this portfolio through December, that issue has been brought into sharp focus. Far too many trades with EUR and to a lesser extent with CAD. We see that in the Sig where Equity is down a lot - open DD went up to $1600 last night. Of course this is while running at twice the intended lot size, but nevertheless...

So when we start live next week, we will remove the EURAUD strategies as well as the CADJPY, leaving us with seven pairs to trade.

When we filter the demo test account for that change we see a much improved Equity performance whilst still having an impressive return of $2000 in closed profit over the seven week period from 9 November and current open DD of around $200. And a more balanced trading portfolio.

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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2021, 07:02:06 AM »
A New Year

We have used the December market data to take a fresh look at all the strategies. And have re-optimised accordingly including the addition of a dynamic exit to all but two of the strategies. This has also enabled the removal of most of the scale-in trades and provides us with a balanced portfolio of eight symbols each with separate Buy and Sell strategies.

(Scale-ins were being placed as pending orders and we realised that pending orders are included in margin calculations; with leverage possibly at 1:20 (new ASIC rules) it pays to reduce the demand on margin. The Autotrader is also being modified to place scale-ins as market orders which will be good for use with the two strategies that are using scale-ins.)

At the same time we are also looking to fix a glitch with the automated Invoice procedure for performance fees. Hence we will start trading the live account by tomorrow but not offering the subscription link until that is fixed. In any case prospective subscribers will want to see some live performance data before considering signing up.

We will leave the current demo test myfxbook in the Sig for a while longer to see how it recovers from the December hammering. Note however that the new portfolio will be different with fewer symbols and less correlated. Back tests of strategies to run in 2021 do not exhibit the strong open DD of this demo test account.

The symbols now to be traded in 2021 are AUDNZD, CADJPY, EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF, USDCAD and USDJPY.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2021, 04:46:49 AM »
Demo Test Account in December

The last two weeks in December are normally regarded as not being good for trading. That is why it was important to keep the demo test of the DIY FrequentTrader portfolio running during that time.

So open DD did plummet to around $1600 but as the image below shows, we also closed out almost $1600 in profit in December. So zero net gain/loss for the month should all of the open DD be closed in loss. But it has not to date and open DD has receded.

Open DD is now around $800 and closed profit has not taken a hit - as yet. Some of the losing trades are due to be closed in a day or so, hence we should expect to take some losses. But hey, the portfolio is up 52% in just two months, so some loss will not be a worry.

Note however that this demo test account is running at 1:400 leverage and it would not have survived running on $5K at 1:20. Probably OK at 1:100 or even 1:50. Hence the changes we have made going forward as described in previous Post in order to play it safe and sensible.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2021, 04:29:13 AM »
Demo Test Account in December

The last two weeks in December are normally regarded as not being good for trading. That is why it was important to keep the demo test of the DIY FrequentTrader portfolio running during that time.

So open DD did plummet to around $1600 but as the image below shows, we also closed out almost $1600 in profit in December. So zero net gain/loss for the month should all of the open DD be closed in loss. But it has not to date and open DD has receded.

Open DD is now around $800 and closed profit has not taken a hit - as yet. Some of the losing trades are due to be closed in a day or so, hence we should expect to take some losses. But hey, the portfolio is up 52% in just two months, so some loss will not be a worry.

Note however that this demo test account is running at 1:400 leverage and it would not have survived running on $5K at 1:20. Probably OK at 1:100 or even 1:50. Hence the changes we have made going forward as described in previous Post in order to play it safe and sensible.

Back to (more) Normal

On the demo test account the EURAUD losing trades have now all been closed, and the portfolio is now back to more normal levels. It made $1900 in December, and it has given back about $800 of that so still not a bad return for the month.

We have removed the three EURAUD strategies that were running in 2020 and have replaced it with just the one, but separate charts for Buys and Sells. Still scalping but now with an added dynamic exit to avoid what happened in December. We will keep this account running in parallel with the new live account so that we have ready alternatives should any of the revised strategies on the new live account require replacement.

Live Account activated

The live account with the revised strategies (refer Post from 4 Jan) is up and running, currently in small loss of 2%. More on that next week.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2021, 03:18:00 AM »
Live Account - first 4 days

As usual, the first week of trading in January is fairly light. So we only managed 14 trades per day; we expect to get more like 30 to 40.

Anyway, we are down $12 in closed profit and $116 down in open DD.  And we have already see the dynamic SL come into play for EURNZD - without that we would now be in deeper loss if we had been relying on a close after 5 days only as we do in the demo test account.

The other thing I am watching closely is the margin. Just to be on the safe side I have started at 1:200 instead of 1:20 to see how things develop over the first few weeks. My hope is to be able to trade this portfolio at 1:20 on a $5K account. I have started with $4.5k and will build that to $5K before looking to withdraw profits monthly after that.

At this stage I am using FXBlue to monitor the account as per first image - more reliable in regular updating then myfxbook. But will share a myfxbook link soon.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2021, 03:54:39 AM »
Myfxbook link activated

You can now follow both the DIY FrequentTrader live account and demo test account performance on myfxbook.

The Signal will open to subscribers soon as we accumulate a bit more history; all looking good so far on the new live account and the demo test account has now overcome the end of year kerfuffles and trading normally.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2021, 03:15:32 AM »
Two strikes and.... its modified

Slow progress so far this month and EURNZD has behaved badly with two successive losses. That calls for a rethink and re-eavaluation of how the market can move.

I have left entry conditions the same but have reduced the number of re-entries by two, added two scale-ins instead (so no change in exposure) and reduced the basket TP level. That provides greater opportunity for the basket of trades to close in profit. In good conditions this means profit growth is somewhat reduced but in bad conditions we should lose less. As can be seen by comparing the two images below.

Over the weekend I will review whether this type of change is warranted for the other pairs.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2021, 04:00:13 AM »
Continual 0pen losses - but with daily gains (mostly)

One aspect of this portfolio, both the demo and the live form, is that we pretty well always have an open DD/loss. In the live account that open DD is around $50 to $70 mostly. It would be easy to see that as problematic and so we have to observe also that we generally make a profit in closed trades each day. And thus we grow our account. As shown in image below.

Trading activity is starting to pick up for 2021 and so we should be seeing somewhat more "frequent trading" soon. More like average 30 to 35 trades per day vs the current 15. And more profits to go with that.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2021, 04:02:38 AM by diyforexskills »
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2021, 04:28:48 AM »
A Quandary

We started the new M15 based portfolio on a live account on 5 January. And we kept the H4 based portfolio running on demo since 9 November, after removing the big losing scalping EURAUD strategy.

At end of January we can compare the performance of the two portfolios noting that the H4 portfolio is trading at twice the lot size, so comparable profit/loss is 50% of what is shown in image attached. A closed loss of $150 for the M15 vs a closed profit of $330 for the H4 portfolio. Which is not the way I wanted it to be!   >:( :( :-[

So the quandary is whether or not to switch my live account to the H4 portfolio; or ride out this DD.

Looking at the performances in more detail and re-visiting the optimisations, I have instead made adjustments to both portfolios using the extra BT data that we now have. And decided to keep running the M15 portfolio on live and the H4 on demo; for one more month. If live (M15) is then still in DD and demo (H4) still making gains, I will do the switch. Until then, there is no point in offering either or both portfolios as a signal service.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2021, 06:15:55 AM »
Recovery almost Complete

We ended up $150 down by end of January, but we have almost recovered that loss in the first week in February.

And with a performance based subscription fee, no fees will be payable until the return has exceeded the high watermark as shown in image. Obviously we want to make profits from copying and so fees will be payable when we do, but at least when we have a DD, we don't have to pay fees on top of losing money.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2021, 06:33:53 AM »
Recovery almost Complete

We ended up $150 down by end of January, but we have almost recovered that loss in the first week in February.

And with a performance based subscription fee, no fees will be payable until the return has exceeded the high watermark as shown in image. Obviously we want to make profits from copying and so fees will be payable when we do, but at least when we have a DD, we don't have to pay fees on top of losing money.

.... but then there was a hitch


And so we promptly lost about $100 of the gains made for the week.  :(   But the good new is that the loss was caused by a fundamental announcement (the monthly Bank of England Statement - bullish this time), and that there was nothing wrong with the entry conditions of the strategy.

And to show that, I inserted a time filter to coincide with the time of the monthly statements, and then ran BTs for comparison as shown in second image. Since we cannot filter out a time on a specific day of the month on the Autotrader, the time filter applies every day; but we can see from the comparative BTs that filtering out a 4 hour period around the time of the BOE Statements, results in improved performance overall. Not by much in terms of profit over a 3 month period, but certainly in terms of profit factor and DD; and only 13 fewer trades.

So we could either leave that filter in permanently, or activate it for the first Thursday of every month. I'll try the latter in the first instance.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2021, 04:52:38 AM »
GBP Data Dump

There is a big dump of data due in an hour or so from the UK, so since the M15 portfolio does not have any open trades with GBP pairs, I have deactivated the set files for GBPAUD and GBPCHF temporarily on the M15 portfolio. All part of the managed service.

In the H4 portfolio both of these pairs have open trades, so we will see what happens there.

Both portfolios are struggling a little this week and the H4 portfolio is still outperforming the M15 portfolio.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2021, 06:06:51 AM by diyforexskills »
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2021, 07:46:09 AM »
GBP Data Dump

There is a big dump of data due in an hour or so from the UK, so since the M15 portfolio does not have any open trades with GBP pairs, I have deactivated the set files for GBPAUD and GBPCHF temporarily on the M15 portfolio. All part of the managed service.

In the H4 portfolio both of these pairs have open trades, so we will see what happens there.

Both portfolios are struggling a little this week and the H4 portfolio is still outperforming the M15 portfolio.

Well, that turned out to be a bit of a fizz. Set files activated again.
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Offline diyforexskills

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Re: DIY Frequent Trader
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2021, 06:48:27 AM »
Future Event Scanner

Just came across this feature from FX Blue. Useful for those who want to be market aware, and so a useful adjunct to FF. 
Accessible from here https://www.fxblue.com/market-data/tools/future-events-scanner

I have set the Scanner to look at the pairs I am trading with DIY Frequent Trader, as per image. You can also modify the settings for the indicators used. I intend to use it purely as an alert to check what is trading on these portfolios especially since we have separate strategies for longs and shorts. And expect to only take action rarely. For instance if a definite top has been reached on the Daily, it COULD be opportune to temporarily disable the Long strategy just in case we get some false entry signals for longs.
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