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Author Topic: Volatility Factor  (Read 176372 times)

Online reinerh

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2012, 04:11:19 PM »
I'm really interested in seeing some real backtests on this one, waiting for launch tomorrow!  8)

there wont be any backtests since its a signal service = monthly fee.

and that on top of the 300 smackers, gee wizz............


Tradenow

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2012, 09:47:22 AM »
Hi sunshine friends,

there is an early bird offer in wsfr member area with 20% off coupon.  ;)
I bought it some minutes ago and all is running so far.
You have one upsell for premium licence this adds eurusd and another live account.
I didnt bought it. You can buy it anytime in member area.
All looks fine and now the first bt is running.
Also its running live on my playground account.
Will post later. I have much work in my office today.

best regards
Mark

Offline Anchorpoint

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2012, 10:27:54 AM »
Hi sunshine friends,

there is an early bird offer in wsfr member area with 20% off coupon.  ;)
I bought it some minutes ago and all is running so far.
You have one upsell for premium licence this adds eurusd and another live account.
I didnt bought it. You can buy it anytime in member area.
All looks fine and now the first bt is running.
Also its running live on my playground account.
Will post later. I have much work in my office today.

best regards
Mark

Ok great Tradenow, looking forward  :) Any more info on risk/stop levels / hard stops etc in the strategy ? 
Anything can happen - every moment in the market is unique

Offline bearnakedbull

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #18 on: March 27, 2012, 01:21:06 PM »

Hi sunshine friends,

there is an early bird offer in wsfr member area with 20% off coupon.  ;)
I bought it some minutes ago and all is running so far.
You have one upsell for premium licence this adds eurusd and another live account.
I didnt bought it. You can buy it anytime in member area.
All looks fine and now the first bt is running.
Also its running live on my playground account.
Will post later. I have much work in my office today.

best regards
Mark
Mark, can you tell us it there is an option to enter a stop loss if desired? Thanks.
Regards, bnb

Tradenow

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #19 on: March 27, 2012, 01:53:48 PM »
Ok,

here are some infos and bt i made so far:

- max. 4 trades open
- tp 20 
- sl 380 pips / trade = 1520 worst case

manual quote:
Quote
...
It is clear that the performance of Volatility Factor improves when the StopLoss value
increases. In fact, with a StopLoss value greater than 440 pips, the performance is
unchanged, which means that the exit logic of Volatility Factor is so effective that
we do not need a StopLoss at all.
Nevertheless, we decided to integrate an emergency StopLoss protection, which every
professionally developed trading strategy must have.
We chose the 380 pips value as the value with the lowest realized drawdown.
Of course, you can use your own judgment to choose a lesser or greater value for the
StopLoss. In this case, the StopLoss optimization report will give you valuable
information about what performance to expect with these parameters.
In relation to this, please note that the Profit Factor of the system rises in a linear
correlation with the StopLoss value, so you should chose the largest StopLoss value
which you can allow for your trading.
...

you can change all kind of parameters and the manual is well written to explain the whole strategy and the numbers they use for default. you can tweak nearly everything.
also hard stop can be set.
hud is very informative and my first impression is good. same professional handling and manual as wsfr.
so hope the strategy will run for a while.

BT only possible from 09-2008 until now.
I attached the bt on a 2.5k account with 0.01 lot fixed and alternativ mm with1% risk.

Here a quote from manual. I hope its ok if not i will remove it:
Quote
Special Information Section
Understanding this information is very important.
Although some of you may find parts of this information
too specific, we think that the advanced traders will appreciate it.
Volatility Factor is LONG-term profitable strategy.
If you are patient and if you are careful with your risk management, you
will be happy with the results.
Volatility Factor is a highly effective pip machine, and you can expect more than 10k
or even 15k pips profit on an annual base. Of course, perfect systems dont exist
and if we want to make big profits, we must accept some losses, so we must be
prepared for some bad periods.
Historically (Chart 1), we have more than 55k pips profit on GBPUSD in 4400 trades
over nearly 3.5 years. We have a maximum drawdown close to 1.6k pips once and
several periods with sharp drawdowns close to 1k pips (the red circles).
After each bad period, we have a fast recovery and new long profitable periods.
With this information, we want to prepare you for the fact that a drawdown of 2k or
even 3k pips is possible, but you have a 90% chance for full fast recovery if you
still have 50% of your account intact.
Chart 1
We started to use Volatility Factor on our real money Alpari GOLD account with a 0.1
fixed lot, and now we have more than 3000 pips profit for 3 months trading.
We are prepared to stand on a 3k pips drawdown, and we expect this to happen once in
a 2- to 3-year period.
- 19 -
The best scenario for you would be to have 1030k pips profit before such big
drawdown occurs. Of course, there is always an element of chance in trading, and you
can end up with big drawdown at the very beginning of your trading with Volatility
Factor. Because of this, you must ensure that a drawdown of 23k pips will not destroy
your trading account entirely and you will have enough funds to move forward.
If you survive the drawdown, you have a great chance for full recovery in the
subsequent 23 months.
As a reasonable minimum, we recommend a $5,000 account for 0.1 lot trading
and a $500 account for 0.01 lot trading.
The recommended account is $10,000 for 0.1 lot trading and a $1,000 account
for 0.01 lot trading.
If you do not have enough risk capital, you can try your luck with smaller
amounts, but an account under $2,000 for 0.1 lot trading does not have a very
good prospect.


To use another live account and eurusd you have to buy upsell premium package. this costs a monthly fee of 14,90$.
After running the bt i attached the ea to my main live account with 1% risk. I will try this ea the next 60 days directly live. Then we will see....

best regards
Mark

« Last Edit: March 27, 2012, 01:59:26 PM by Tradenow »

Offline user456

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #20 on: March 27, 2012, 02:26:50 PM »
BT only possible from 09-2008 until now.
I attached the bt on a 2.5k account with 0.01 lot fixed and alternativ mm with1% risk.

Thank you for your efforts. You write that the backtest is only possible from 09-2008. Is this a constraint from the ea itself or did you decide to start at 2008?

Offline compujock

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #21 on: March 27, 2012, 02:30:50 PM »
I want to see the backtest for 2007.  If they don't allow that then this is a pretty risky prospect.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2012, 02:33:06 PM by compujock »

Offline WiZARD

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #22 on: March 27, 2012, 02:40:07 PM »
I want to see the backtest for 2007.  If they don't allow that then this is a pretty risky prospect.

they don't allow it.
It won't take any trade in the backtest, before 2008-09.

I won't deal with this ea anymore...
Almost any grid is pretty good on gbpusd after 2008-09, and they are free, or much cheaper.

(I have removed the affiliate link from my signature, I won't recommend an ea like this to anybody)
« Last Edit: March 27, 2012, 02:41:45 PM by WiZARD »
Greed is good

Tradenow

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #23 on: March 27, 2012, 02:40:51 PM »
Yes 2007....
No backtest possible before 09-2008.
Strategy will not work in 2007 imho and maybe blowed the account.
Thats the risk with such systems. Anybody who will trade this should know that its risky.

best regards
Mark

Offline nick222

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2012, 10:59:57 PM »
thanks for all the infos ,very informative thread  :P

Offline he3117

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #25 on: March 27, 2012, 11:20:34 PM »
Quote
they don't allow it.
It won't take any trade in the backtest, before 2008-09.
:o  :o  :o

Offline bearnakedbull

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #26 on: March 27, 2012, 11:49:19 PM »
There seems to lots of concern here for things that seemed unfounded to me. If you look at this account, http://www.myfxbook.com/members/volatilityfactor/volatility-factor-alpari-real/261321 you will see that on March 8th it opened 4 trades like it often does, without stop loss values in place, and it closed them out for a loss. That tells me that it has an exit plan so if that is the case then I don't understand what the concern is for 2007. I would think that it would have just quit the bad trades anyways. Am I missing something?
Regards, bnb

Offline compujock

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #27 on: March 28, 2012, 12:02:23 AM »
Yes. If you could backtest for 2007 then you would have the complete picture and not be missing anything.  Believe me, there is a good reason they wont let you test 2007.

Offline bendex

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #28 on: March 28, 2012, 12:59:02 AM »
There seems to lots of concern here for things that seemed unfounded to me. If you look at this account, http://www.myfxbook.com/members/volatilityfactor/volatility-factor-alpari-real/261321 you will see that on March 8th it opened 4 trades like it often does, without stop loss values in place, and it closed them out for a loss. That tells me that it has an exit plan so if that is the case then I don't understand what the concern is for 2007. I would think that it would have just quit the bad trades anyways. Am I missing something?

Yes, it does close losing baskets for a loss, so you won't blow up the account with one bad basket. But before 2008 you can assume it had many bad baskets.

Offline Bigsteve

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Re: Volatility Factor
« Reply #29 on: March 28, 2012, 01:20:52 AM »
If I had some crazy money laying around I would do it.
But since I don't then as tempting as it is I won't be using this EA.
Dang :(

Good luck to everybody here. I really do wish the best and hope it is a home runner for you
« Last Edit: March 28, 2012, 01:23:36 AM by Bigsteve »

 

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